Heisman Odds 2025: Mendoza, Sayin Battle in Big Ten Championship

• Fernando Mendoza is the slight Heisman favorite at +170, just ahead of Julian Sayin at +190
• The two quarterbacks face off Saturday night in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis
• Check out the updated Heisman odds and our favorite bet to win the award

The Heisman Trophy race comes down to one game in Indianapolis. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Ohio State’s Julian Sayin are separated by just 20 cents on the odds board entering Saturday’s Big Ten Championship. Whoever wins this matchup likely takes home the trophy.

Here’s a look at the updated Heisman Trophy odds heading into Saturday’s huge Big 10 showdown between two of the favorites, plus our best value pick.

2025 Heisman Odds

Odds as of Dec. 6 at DraftKings. New customers can claim the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to bet on the Heisman.

Mendoza’s +170 Heisman odds translate to a 37% implied probability, while Sayin’s +190 gives him a 34.5% chance. Pavia sits at 35.7% with his +180 number, making this a three-horse race on paper.

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Sayin vs Mendoza: The Big Ten Showdown

Both quarterbacks are 12-0, and both have put up elite numbers all season. Saturday’s head-to-head matchup will settle the debate once and for all.

Sayin’s been automatic in his first year as a starter. His 78.9% completion rate leads the FBS, putting him on pace to break the all-time single-season record. He’s thrown for 3,065 yards and 30 touchdowns against just five interceptions, and the redshirt freshman hasn’t made many mistakes along the way.

Mendoza brings more firepower in the touchdown department. His 32 scoring strikes lead the country, and he’s been responsible for 38 total TDs when you add in his six rushing scores. He trails Sayin in passing yardage at 2,758, but his 9.41 yards per attempt edges Sayin’s 9.37, and he’s added a dual-threat dimension with 243 yards on the ground.

Sayin vs Mendoza: 2025 Stats

The storylines favor Mendoza in a big way. He’s transforming Indiana, a basketball school, into a 12-0 football juggernaut. The Hoosiers haven’t won a Big Ten title since 1967, and Mendoza has recorded at least four passing touchdowns with zero interceptions in five games this season. That puts him in elite company with Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jason White.

Sayin brings the efficiency numbers and Ohio State’s blue-blood pedigree to the table. His completion percentage is historic, and he’s done it against a tougher schedule. But there’s a “bus driver” knock that keeps following him around. Critics point to Jeremiah Smith and Ohio State’s stacked roster, questioning whether Sayin’s the real star or just managing elite talent.

Don’t Forget About Pavia

Diego Pavia sits at +180, sandwiched right between the two favorites. Vanderbilt’s senior quarterback has led the Commodores to their first 10-win season in program history, throwing for 3,192 yards and 27 touchdowns while adding 826 rushing yards and nine rushing scores.

A lot can be learned from the numbers. Pavia leads all three candidates in total offense with 4,099 yards (sack adjusted), and his 5.76 yards per offensive snap dwarfs both Mendoza (4.18) and Sayin (4.35). He’s posted 10 games with at least 250 total yards, more than Mendoza (5) and Sayin (6) combined.

But the turnovers are killing him. Pavia’s 27:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio looks rough compared to Mendoza’s 32:5 and Sayin’s 30:5, and he’s turned it over 10 times total this season. The Big Ten duo has coughed it up just five times each.

The Heisman Longshots

Jeremiyah Love checks in at +5000 after breaking Notre Dame’s single-season touchdown record with 21 total scores. He’s rushed for 1,372 yards at 6.9 per carry, making him easily the most productive non-quarterback in the race. The issue is that quarterbacks have won 82% of Heismans, and Love’s yardage totals don’t stack up to past running back winners.

Jeremiah Smith opened the season as a preseason favorite but now sits at +20000. He’s put up 1,315 yards and 15 touchdowns, but Ohio State rested him against Rutgers before the Michigan game. His odds have tanked, and there’s no realistic path back into contention.

Heisman Betting Pick

Let’s cut through the noise: whoever wins Saturday night in Indianapolis is walking away with the Heisman. These two are statistically dead even, and voters will use the Big Ten title game as the ultimate tiebreaker.

Mendoza’s favored for good reason. He leads the nation in touchdown passes, and Indiana’s Cinderella story is tailor-made for Heisman voters. Transfer quarterbacks flipping programs have dominated this award recently, with Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams winning in recent years.

But Pavia at +180 offers the best value on the board. If the Big Ten Championship turns into a defensive struggle where neither quarterback lights it up, Pavia’s body of work starts looking a lot better. He played an SEC schedule, racked up massive yardage totals, and turned Vanderbilt into a 10-win program. That resume carries weight.

Stay far away from Love and Smith. The odds are astronomical, and there’s no realistic scenario where either one wins this thing.