Bengals vs Bills Picks, Prediction, Betting Lines & Playoff Implications (Week 14)
By Ryan Potts in NFL News
Published:
- Cincinnati has an outside shot at the playoffs
- Buffalo looks to move to 3-0 against the AFC North
- Continue reading for my Bengals vs Bills picks and predictions
The Cincinnati Bengals (4-8, 2-4 on the road) head to Orchard Park to face the Buffalo Bills (8-4, 5-1 at home). Highmark Stadium will host this potential playoff preview as the Bengals cling to a shot at the AFC North title and the Bills look to keep within striking distance of the Patriots. FOX will handle the 1:00 pm ET kickoff on Sunday, Dec. 7.
I have finalized my four favorite Bengals vs Bills picks below. Keep reading for key players to watch as well as the updated Bengals vs Bills betting lines.
CIN Bengals vs BUF Bills Picks & Predictions
- CIN vs BUF Pick #1: Bengals +6.5 (-115 on BetRivers)
The Bills, despite their 8-4 record, are a feeble 4-6 ATS as favorites this season. They have lost outright as a favorite in all four of their losses, and they failed to cover the spread in their wins over the Dolphins and Saints.
Cincinnati’s 5-7 ATS record is not great, but keep in mind that Joe Burrow has played just two full games this season. The Bengals are 4-5 ATS as underdogs, but they have covered in each of the last two games as 7.5-point underdogs. I expect the Bengals to keep it within a touchdown and potentially upset Buffalo.
- CIN vs BUF Pick #2: James Cook Over 1.5 Catches (-164 on FanDuel)
In 12 games this season, James Cook has cleared 1.5 catches seven times. In all seven qualified games, he also caught a third pass, maxing out with five receptions in Buffalo’s win over Baltimore and loss to Miami. It could be profitable to make a ladder with Cook’s receptions at over 1.5, over 2.5, over 3.5, and over 4.5.
The Bengals have allowed 63 players to record multiple catches in a game this season. By position, the breakdown is 27 wide receivers, 20 tight ends, 15 running backs, and one Caleb Williams. Of the 15 running backs with multiple catches, eight players had at least three catches, and Dylan Sampson set the season high with a whopping eight.
- CIN vs BUF Pick #3: Evan McPherson Over 2.5 Extra Points Made (+129 on Underdog)
Evan McPherson is 27-for-27 on extra points this season. He has made at least three extra points in five of twelve games this season. He has made as many as five extra points once (Week 8) and has made at least four extra points three times.
On the Bills’ side, Buffalo has allowed 30 touchdowns this season. Buffalo has allowed the opposing kicker to make at least three extra points in four games this season: Tyler Loop (Ravens), John Parker Romo (Falcons), and both Riley Patterson (Dolphins) games. The Bills also allowed four touchdowns against the Bucs, but Tampa Bay opted to go for two twice.
- CIN vs BUF Pick #4: Dalton Kincaid First Half Touchdown (+480 on FanDuel)
Dalton Kincaid has scored four touchdowns this season. For his nine career touchdowns (including playoffs), eight of them have come in the first half. In Week 4, Kincaid scored his first-career second-half touchdown. His other three touchdowns this season have come in the first quarter.
The Bengals have allowed 45 touchdowns this season, with 13 coming against tight ends. This includes multi-touchdown outings for Pat Freiermuth and Colston Loveland. Of the 13, five have come in the first half of games.
Bengals vs Bills Betting Lines
The Bills are home favorites with the total set at 53.5 in the current NFL odds. Over bettors can take over 53.5 at Caesars for -106 odds. Under bettors can get under 53.5 on bet365 for -110 odds.
Buffalo bettors can get the Bills on the spread at -5.5 with -120 odds on FanDuel, or on the moneyline at -250 on Underdog. For Cincinnati bettors, take the Bengals at +6.5 at BetRivers (-115 odds) or +230 odds at DraftKings on the moneyline.
CIN vs BUF: Last Five H2H Matchups
Through 34 matchups, including playoffs, the Bengals and Bills have split the matchups 17-17. Buffalo has a 17-14 advantage in the regular season, but Cincinnati holds a 3-0 advantage in the playoffs. After Buffalo won 10 straight games from November 1989 through November 2010, the Bengals have won six of the last eight matchups.
In their last matchup, Cincinnati won 24-18. Joe Burrow tossed a pair of touchdowns and 348 yards in the win. Josh Allen had a passing touchdown and a rushing touchdown, feeding Stefon Diggs for 86 yards and a touchdown.
Bengals vs Bills Playoffs Implications
Cincinnati’s Playoff Chances
According to The Athletic’s playoff predictor, the Bengals have a 6% chance of making the playoffs. The Bengals would move to a 14% chance to make the playoffs with a win. With a loss, Cincinnati would fall to just a 3% chance. Essentially, all of Cincinnati’s playoff equity relies on its ability to chase down 6-6 Baltimore and Pittsburgh, who play each other this week.
Buffalo’s Playoff Chances
Buffalo currently has a 92% chance to make the playoffs. A win would put Buffalo at 97%. A loss does not doom the Bills, only dropping them to 79%. However, the Bills still have an eye on the division. A win over Cincinnati gives the Bills a 10% shot to recapture the AFC East while a loss drops them from 8% to 4% to catch the Patriots.
Ryan Potts is a veteran football and baseball content creator. He was previously a credentialed NFL media member, covering the draft, bombine, and Super Bowl. He has been featured on Atlanta sports talk radio and Arizona student radio. Ryan is a journalism graduate from the University of Arizona.
