Iowa vs Iowa State Picks, Predictions & Betting Preview of Cy-Hawk Showdown

• Undefeated Iowa State is a sizable home favorite against in-state rival Iowa on Thursday night
• Is Iowa State’s home-court advantage at Hilton Coliseum strong enough to cover the big point spread?
• See the top Iowa vs Iowa State picks, predictions, and props to bet, plus the latest odds and splits

A heated in-state rivalry highlights Thursday’s college basketball slate as the #4 Iowa State Cyclones (9-0, 4-0 home, 7-1-1 ATS, 6-3 O/U) host the unranked Iowa Hawkeyes (8-1, 0-1 away, 7-2 ATS, 5-4 O/U) in a high-stakes, non-conference showdown.

The action tips off at 8:00 pm ET from James H. Hilton Coliseum in Ames and will be broadcast nationally on Fox Sports 1.

While Iowa is an impressive 8-1 straight-up and 7-2 ATS this season, the Hawkeyes lone blemish came in their only true road test and against the only top-50 team they’ve faced: a 71-52 demolition at Michigan State (rated 12th at KenPom). This preview will dissect the odds, analyze key statistical matchups, and deliver my Iowa vs Iowa State best bets and picks for the latest iteration in the Cy-Hawk rivalry.

Iowa State vs Iowa: Best Bets, Picks & Top Player Props to Bet

The best betting value lies in trusting the home team’s perfect record and formidable play at Hilton Coliseum in this high-profile rivalry game. While Iowa boasts an impressive record, their struggles in their lone road game combined with Iowa State’s dominance in Ames creates the foundation for backing the Cyclones, even with a double-digit spread.

Best Bet: Iowa State -11.5 (-110) at FanDuel

The Cyclones aren’t just winning; they’re operating as a well-oiled machine on both ends of the floor. This represents a steep price for a rivalry game, but Iowa State possesses the offensive firepower and defensive tenacity to pull away for a comfortable victory. The Hawkeyes are 0-1 on the road – losing by 19 points against a weaker opponent than they’ll see on Thursday – and the hostile environment in Ames will prove to be a significant factor.

Iowa State’s potent attack features four players averaging double-digit points. Joshua Jefferson dominates the frontcourt, pouring in 17.6 points and grabbing 6.7 rebounds per game, while guard Tamin Lipsey contributes 16.8 points and an exceptional 5.7 assists against just 0.7 turnovers per contest.

The key to Iowa State covering this number lies in their elite shooting efficiency, particularly from forward Milan Momcilovic, who connects on a blistering 53.6% of his three-point attempts while averaging 4.1 made threes per game. That kind of efficiency can break open any game quickly.

Given Iowa’s road struggles and Iowa State’s perfect 4-0 record at home, I am backing the Cyclones to win this rivalry matchup by a convincing margin.

Over/Under Pick: Over 138.5 (-114) at Underdog

Both teams possess legitimate scoring talent. While the Cyclones have demonstrated elite defensive activity, with players like Killyan Toure (2.2 steals per game) and Joshua Jefferson (1.4 steals per game) consistently disrupting opposing offenses, the total has dropped too far from its opening O/U of 144.5 in Thursday’s college basketball odds.

Best Player Prop: Milan Momcilovic Over 2.5 Made Threes (-135) at BetMGM

This represents the premier prop on the board. Momcilovic has been an absolute flamethrower from beyond the arc for the Cyclones, averaging an incredible 4.1 made threes on 7.7 attempts per game, good for a 53.6% clip. Shooters typically perform better in the friendly confines of their home arena, and Momcilovic will be a focal point of Iowa State’s offense.

The Hawkeyes must pick their poison when defending the Cyclones’ balanced attack, which should leave plenty of open looks for their most dangerous perimeter threat. Expect him to see high volume once again and cash the over on his made threes prop with room to spare.

Iowa State vs Iowa Closing Odds

The latest Iowa vs Iowa State point spread lists the Cyclones as 11.5 to 12-point favorites. FanDuel has the best ATS price on Iowa State, while Caesars has the best ATS price on Iowa.

The moneyline odds show Iowa at a market-best +570 at FanDuel, while Fanatics has Iowa State at -800.

The game total ranges from 138.5 (Over -114) at Underdog to 140.5 (Under -110) at Caesars.

Hawkeyes vs Cyclones Public-Betting Splits

An analysis of the college basketball public betting splits reveals shows that the moneyline market have overwhelming confidence in the home team. A staggering 96.36% of all moneyline bets and an even more dominant 97.04% of the money handle back Iowa State to win outright. This indicates both the public and high-dollar bettors expect the Cyclones to maintain their perfect record.

Similarly, bettors overwhelmingly anticipate a high-scoring affair. The total has attracted massive action on the over, drawing 95.05% of the bets and 95.17% of the stake.

A slight majority of ATS tickets (52.94%) support Iowa State to cover the spread, but the money tells a completely different tale. A hefty 65.28% of the total money wagered on the spread backs the Hawkeyes to cover as the underdog.

Iowa State vs Iowa H2H Statistical Comparison

A head-to-head statistical comparison reveals why the undefeated Iowa State Cyclones are heavy favorites at home. While both teams boast impressive records, the Cyclones have been operating on a different level offensively, creating significant mismatches that the Hawkeyes will struggle to contain, especially in a hostile road environment.