Missouri State vs Arkansas State Spread, Prediction & How to Bet Xbox Bowl

• The first annual Xbox Bowl kicks off with Missouri State vs Arkansas State this Thursday, December 18th
• Arkansas State are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games
• Check out the Missouri State vs Arkansas State spread with my prediction and how to bet the Xbox Bowl

Missouri State meets Arkansas State as the first Xbox Bowl kicks off from the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas this Thursday, December 18th. The Red Wolves are 1.5-point favorites versus the Bears, with the total set at 54.5.

Arkansas State defeated Appalachian State 30-29 to finish the regular season 6-6 their last time out, while Missouri State fell to Louisiana Tech 42-30. Tune in on ESPN 2 as all of the Missouri State vs Arkansas State action gets underway at 9pm ET.

Load the game up, hit the Y button to hurdle the doubters, and use the hit stick to lay the beatdown to the books while you dive into the latest Missouri State vs Arkansas State spread, my prediction and how to bet the Xbox Bowl, below.

Missouri State vs Arkansas State Spread

Arkansas State are 1.5-point favorites over Missouri State in the Xbox Bowl college football odds. The Missouri State vs Arkansas State total sits at 54.5, with the over favored at -114 and the under at -106.

Bettors are all over the Red Wolves in this one, as 73% of moneyline wagers are on Arkansas State in the college football public betting splits.

Odds as of December 17th at FanDuel. Make sure you check out the best college football betting apps for Missouri State vs Arkansas State. Bettors in the Show-Me State can bet on this game at Missouri sports betting apps.

Missouri State vs Arkansas State Prediction

• Prediction: Missouri State wins in an upset

Missouri State made the move from the FCS to the FBS this season, and now makes its bowl debut due to a lack of eligible teams. The Bears are a great story of a team that won 25 games across the last four years at the FCS level, and burst onto the scene with a seven-win season.

However, the man who led them there won’t be on the sidelines. Head coach Ryan Beard has been hired away by Coastal Carolina and has already begun his new job. Instead, interim head coach and offensive coordinator Nick Petrino (the son of Bobby) will step in to lead the Bears in their first-ever bowl matchup.

Petrino has been with Missouri State since 2021 and is more than capable of steering the ship ahead of the Xbox Bowl, in which the Bears’ 21st-ranked passing attack will power them to victory.

Seventh-year senior quarterback Jacob Clark threw for 330+ yards and three touchdowns on three different occasions this season, finishing the year with 24 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Missouri State have five different wideouts to attack downfield with, plus an explosive running back in Ramone Greene Jr., who’s utilized in the passing game.

The Bears defense is nothing to write home about, but that should hardly matter against a Red Wolves offense that’s 95th in offensive EPA per play this season.

How to Bet Missouri State vs Arkansas State

Pick: Missouri State +1.5 (-120 at FanDuel)

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Clark threw for 330 yards and four touchdowns in Missouri State’s impressive win over UTEP earlier this season, and 286 yards and two scores in their win over the Liberty Flames. I’m betting the Bears’ passing attack will be the difference once again in the Xbox Bowl.

Arkansas State’s passing defense allows 8 yards per pass and 233 passing yards per game this season. Missouri State will exploit that, using their plethora of pass-catchers (the Bears have five receivers with between 30-40 catches this year) to open up space.

On top of that, running back Shomari Lawrence gives the Bears a weapon on the ground. Lawrence has rushed for 964 yards and seven hard-nosed touchdowns. The six-foot, 210-pound back is a heavy load to tackle, who will keep the Bears offense ahead of the chains.

Plus, the Red Wolves turned the ball over 23 times this season, ranking 130th in the country. If they give Missouri State’s explosive passing attack extra possessions on Thursday night, the Xbox Bowl will be over quickly.