Week 16 NFL Parlay Picks: Gift Yourself a Huge Win This Sunday

Sunday of NFL Week 16 features 12 matchups spread across the day, but not many of them are very meaningful. Looking to the 24 teams in action, only 11 of them have something to play for, as 13 of the teams playing today have already been eliminated from playoff contention. Only four of the 12 matchups feature two teams with something to play for. This makes betting Week 16 a little more difficult, as you need to try and decipher motivation, as well as some backups (or even third-string players) being thrust into key roles – see Gardner Minshew and Quinn Ewers.

For this reason, I have trimmed my Week 16 NFL parlay down to just three legs, and am only dipping into one “meaningless” game with these three picks. So, while the potential payout is not as big as a normal week, just 10-1, this parlay will still meet the minimum requirements for just about every parlay profit boost available today.

Grab your eggnog, start the fireplace, join me in betting this parlay, and let’s make a splash with our bankrolls ahead of the holidays. Here are my best NFL parlay picks for Week 16!

Week 16 NFL Parlay

*The odds used for these picks are the odds from the sportsbook where you’ll find the best odds on the whole parlay. Keep reading for the best odds on each as a single.

My top NFL parlay for Week 16 contains the three legs mentioned in the table above. At the time of writing this, the best odds you could get on the parlay were +1038 at DraftKings. The odds at every other major sportsbook came in shorter than 10-1.

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Plus, if you’re not betting with DraftKings, you can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets if your bet wins. However, I would recommend your first $5 wager go on something with a higher probability of hitting. After placing that first $5 bet elsewhere, come back to this parlay with your second bet.

With all the uncertainty around Week 16, it allowed me to go even deeper on the research and analyze these three picks even more than normal. You can see my data-heavy justification for each leg of my NFL parlay for this Sunday below.

Why I Like Justin Herbert to Throw for 250+ Yards vs Cowboys

If you were just looking at stats for the full season, you might land on betting Omarion Hampton to have a nice game on the ground. But after diving deeper into the stats and Dallas’ defensive splits, I think it’s clear Justin Herbert is a great play on Sunday.

Let me break this down for you, starting with Dallas’ improvements against the run.

Defensive Rushing Yards Allowed by Game Split

The additions of Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson have clearly paid off – though, both have only played in their last five games. The 99 rushing yards allowed per game over their last seven would have them as a top 7 run defense this season.

Their defense is only allowing 11.9 fewer gross passing yards per game in their last seven. So, the difference there is negligible.

On top of that, LA has not had much success running the ball against good run defenses. Here’s how they have fared against top 10 run defenses vs teams outside the top 10.

Chargers Rushing Performance When Playing Top 10 Run Defense vs Non-Top 10

That 3.39 rushing yards per carry for the Chargers against top 10 run defenses is horrific. What they have often done in those games is abandon the run and lean on their star QB.

Justin Herbert Passing vs Top 10 Rush Def

Herbert has thrown for at least 250 yards in 3 of 5 games against good run defenses, with one of the exceptions coming against the Jaguars, where Herbert only played 73% of the offensive snaps.

If we remove that game against the Jags, the Chargers’ QB is averaging 312 passing yards per game when playing top run defenses.

So, while Herbert has only thrown for 250+ yards in five of his 14 games this season, and has not done it since Week 9, I believe the offense is going to require him to throw often, which I like against a Cowboys defense that ranks 32nd in gross passing yards allowed per game.

• Pick: Justin Herbert 250+ Passing Yards (+110 at DraftKings)

Aaron Jones Is Next RB Given Chance to Feast on Giants Defense

I have not really been one to put my money behind the Vikings offense this season, thankfully. But I simply cannot stop picking on the New York Giants run defense.

The Giants rank 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (153.6) and 32nd in yards allowed per rushing attempt (5.6). If you remove their Week 11 game, where Josh Jacobs left the game early due to injury after rushing for 40 yards on just seven carries (5.7 YPC), they have not held their opponents’ lead back to less than 67 yards since Week 6.

They just gave up 96 rushing yards on 18 carries to Jacory Croskey-Merritt, who had been struggling a fair bit entering the game. I like Aaron Jones to be the next underwhelming RB to take advantage of a very poor Giants run defense, as he has been the Vikings’ lead back when healthy – since Week 10, Jones has seen at least 10 more snaps than Jordan Mason when he doesn’t leave the game injured.

While Jones’ numbers don’t jump off the page by any means, there are some things to like:

Aaron Jones Sr. 2025 Rush Game Log

Jones has rushed for 60+ yards in 3 of his last 7, and has seen 12+ rushing attempts in each of his last two games. It’s no coincidence two of those performances came against opponents who rank in the bottom third of the league in rushing yards allowed per game – as his Week 16 opponent does.

On top of the poor defense he’ll see, I like Jones to see some extra carries with some mild winds expected.

• Pick: Aaron Jones 60+ Rushing Yards (+130 at bet365)

Nico Collins to Continue Hot Streak vs Raiders

This is the lone pick of the Week 16 NFL parlay where I am not necessarily picking on a “bad defense.” The Raiders rank 14th in gross passing yards allowed – though, they are 23rd in yards allowed per pass attempt.

I’m just backing a player who is hot right now, who I do not believe can be slowed: Nico Collins. After a rough start to the season (for the whole Texans offense), Collins has come on strong as of late. Here’s how he has performed with CJ Stroud under center this season:

Nico Collins Game Log with CJ Stroud 2025

Collins has recorded at least 85 receiving yards in each of his last three games, which lines up with when Stroud returned from injury. Since Week 13, Stroud is averaging:

• 101.3 receiving yards per game (6th in NFL)
• 114.7 targeted air yards per game (8th)
• 44 yards after catch per game (6th)

This comes while seeing 45.3% of Houston’s targeted air yards and breaking tackles at a rate of 15.4% per touch in that window. So, what we’re seeing here is a guy who is clearly his QB’s go-to receiver, is being targeted deep down the field, and is very difficult to bring down when he does have the ball in his hands.

Eric Stokes has played pretty well this season, who projects to spend some of the game covering Collins, but Darien Porter is also likely to find himself across from Collins, and I love that matchup for Houston.

The Texans need this win and I am confident they will continue to look for their star WR for big plays throughout their Week 16 matchup with the Raiders.

• Pick: Nico Collins 80+ Receiving Yards (+144 at FanDuel)