Steelers vs Lions Picks, Prediction, Betting Lines & Playoff Implications (Week 16)

• Two 8-6 teams clash in Week 16 as the Steelers visit the Lions
• The Lions haven’t beaten Pittsburgh since 1998 but need a win to keep their playoff hopes realistic
• Continue reading for my Steelers vs Lions picks and predictions for Dec. 21

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The Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6, 3-3 road) and Detroit Lions (8-6, 5-2 home) clash for the first time since 2021. Both teams are fighting for their postseason lives, looking to make the playoffs after clinching berths in 2024.

Ford Field will host the 4:25 pm ET kickoff on Sunday, Dec. 21. CBS will handle the broadcast.

I have finalized my five favorite Steelers vs Lions picks. With the playoffs in the balance, I have selected one game bet and four player props to fuel your betting Sunday.

PIT Steelers vs DET Lions Picks & Predictions

• PIT Steelers vs DET Lions Pick #1: Under 52.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

The total has been pushed from 50 to 52.5 since the line opened, and I am fading the line movement to back the under. I expect this game to follow a similar game script to Pittsburgh’s win over Baltimore. Despite winning, the Steelers conceded over 33 minutes time of possession and surrendered 217 rushing yards.

I expect both teams to have ball control-oriented offenses. Pittsburgh uses its running backs in the receiving game as an extension of the running game while Detroit has a dynamic ground game in its own right plus the notorious chain mover Amon-Ra St. Brown. Both teams will be able to score, but I anticipate fewer overall possessions.

• PIT Steelers vs DET Lions Pick #2: Jaylen Warren Over 2.5 Catches (+152 at FanDuel)

Over 1.5 catches has been an auto-bet this season, cashing in all 12 games Warren has played with Aaron Rodgers in the lineup. However, Warren has added a third catch in each of the last two games and five games on the season. I like a potential ladder play here with over 1.5, over 2.5, and potentially over 3.5 catches.

Jaylen Warren is one of the biggest reasons the Steelers are 4-1. Does so much.

Stuns MYLES GARRETT in pass protection, rides him past Rodgers, then leaks out in scramble drill and makes a diving catch on 3rd-and-3 to move the chains pic.twitter.com/AOKl3lwrLa

— Jon Ledyard (@LedyardNFLDraft) October 13, 2025

The Steelers have a bottom-five rushing offense in terms of both rushing yards and yards per rush, but they compensate for this flaw by using both Warren and Kenneth Gainwell out of the backfield. Gainwell and Warren have averaged just a shade under seven catches per game this season with Warren contributing about 2.5 per game.

• PIT Steelers vs DET Lions Pick #3: David Montgomery Over 32.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at BetMGM)

Montgomery has hit this mark in six of 14 games this season. Notably, he has cleared it in five of Detroit’s eight wins. In Detroit’s last win, Montgomery cashed it with just one carry, a 35-yard romp. In the last three games, Montgomery has averaged 40.7 yards per game.

DAVID MONTGOMERY RUMBLES FOR 72 YARDS!

DETvsBAL on ESPN/ABC
Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN App pic.twitter.com/PcvsC3hJgW

— NFL (@NFL) September 23, 2025

While Montgomery is the No.2 back in Detroit, he is the finisher. In positive game scripts, Montgomery thrives. The Lions are 5-2 in games Montgomery has at least 10 rush attempts, and he has surpassed 32.5 yards in five of those games.

• PIT Steelers vs DET Lions Pick #4: Adam Thielen Anytime Touchdown (+1400 at FanDuel)

Adam Thielen has yet to catch a touchdown this season, but he has plenty of experience scoring touchdowns against the Lions. He has five career touchdowns against the Lions, including three at Ford Field. The long-time Vikings has 64 career receiving touchdowns, and I like the odds at 14-to-1.

Thielen would be best utilized in the medium red zone – somewhere between five and 15 yards out. He has the route-running chops still to get open, using his 6-foot-2 frame to box out cornerbacks at the last minute to account for a lost step from his prime. Thielen may only get one target on Sunday, but I expect him to make the most of it.

• PIT Steelers vs DET Lions Pick #5: Jahmyr Gibbs Under 5.5 Catches (-140 at BetMGM)

The line is simply too high here. Gibbs has only recorded six catches in three games this season. This includes an overtime game and a Week 1 blowout loss. Gibbs has only averaging 4.4 catches per game, and he has been equally likely to have two or fewer catches as he has been to have six.

Gibbs will certainly receive a lot of touches, especially if the Lions are winning, but I think the skew will be toward his rush attempts. He has at least 12 rush attempts in 12 of 14 games this season, including all eight Lions wins. In a game where both Gibbs and Montgomery should feast on the ground, I am fading Gibbs’ over in receptions.

Steelers vs Lions Betting Lines

The Lions are home favorites with the total set between 51.5 and 52.5 in the current NFL odds. Over bettors can take over 51.5 at FanDuel for -114 odds. Under bettors can get under 52.5 on DraftKings for -115 odds.

Detroit bettors can get the Lions on the spread at -6.5 with -120 odds on FanDuel, or on the moneyline at -325 at BetMGM. For Pittsburgh bettors, take the Steelers at +7 at DraftKings (+100 odds) or +275 odds, also at DraftKings, on the moneyline.

PIT vs DET: Last Five H2H Matchups

In a matchup dating back to 1934, the Steelers hold a 17-14-2 advantage over the Lions. In the last 60 years, the Steelers have a 13-2-1 record, reversing Detroit’s dominance in the pre-Super Bowl era. Detroit’s last victory over the Steelers came controversially on Thanksgiving Day, 1998.

In their most recent matchup, the Lions and Steelers played to a 16-16 tie. Detroit missed a field goal to win the game in overtime, while Pittsburgh lost two fumbles. Jared Goff posted a 67.7 passer rating in an underwhelming performance. For Pittsburgh, both Cameron Heyward and T.J. Watt recorded sacks.

Steelers vs Lions Playoff Implications

Pittsburgh’s Playoff Chances

As of Sunday morning, the Steelers have a 66% chance to make the playoffs. The vast majority of this is through winning the AFC North, but the Steelers have not been eliminated from wild card contention.

With a win over the Lions, the Steelers would move to 80% to make the playoffs. With a loss, the Steelers would fall to 59%.

Detroit’s Playoff Chances

Entering today’s game, the Lions have a 22% chance to make the playoffs. Of all outcomes, 78% result in the Lions missing the playoffs, 15% result in the Lions making the playoffs as a wild card, and 7% result in the Lions winning another NFC North crown.

With a win over the Steelers, the Lions would jump to a 31% chance to make the playoffs (11% by winning the division, 20% by getting a wild card spot). With a loss, the Lions would fall out of the NFC North race entirely and slip to just a 4% chance to make the playoffs. A Lions loss would clinch a playoff spot for both the Bears and 49ers.

All playoff percentages are from the Athletic’s playoff predictor.