Week 18 NFL Picks – ATS & O/U Predictions from A.I.

• A.I. picks for NFL Week 18 are in
• The A.I. is 47-37-1 ATS and 44-33 O/U over the last six weeks
• See NFL Week 18 picks including ATS and O/U predictions for all 16 games from our A.I. model

The final week of the 2025 NFL regular season is a mix of de facto playoff games and mean-nothing matchups for teams playing out a lost season.

I have generated ATS and O/U picks from our internal A.I. for all 16 games. The table below sets out each of its picks, roughly in chronological order of kickoff time. Under the table, find the A.I.’s rationale for each Week 18 NFL pick.

Week 18 NFL Picks

The A.I. had another moderately successful outing last week, going 10-4 ATS but just 5-9 O/U heading into the Rams/Falcons MNF game. It’s almost back at .500 on its picks against the spread for the season. It’s O/U record is, once again, comically bad.

• A.I. regular-season ATS record: 109-111-1
• A.I. regular-season O/U record: 102-119

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks

• ATS Pick: Carolina Panthers +3.0
• O/U Pick: Over 43.0

A.I. rationale: “The algorithmic model identifies significant value backing the road underdog in this NFC South finale. While Tampa Bay maintains offensive superiority with 22.75 points per game compared to Carolina’s 18.56, their recent spread performance has been catastrophic. The Buccaneers enter winless against the spread in their last five contests (0-5 ATS) and have covered just 31.2% of their games this season – among the worst marks in the league.

Carolina presents a stark contrast with consistent spread value, covering 56.2% of their matchups while demonstrating improved defensive metrics down the stretch. Tampa Bay’s positive turnover differential (+5) and superior pass rush (37 sacks versus 28) provide theoretical advantages, but their chronic inability to cover spreads as home favorites creates a clear betting angle against them.

The over appears well-positioned given defensive vulnerabilities on both sides. Tampa Bay’s defense surrenders 24.81 points per game while Carolina allows 22.75 PPG, suggesting both offenses should find scoring opportunities. The combination of the Buccaneers’ porous defense and their desperation to secure the division title should produce enough offensive output to exceed the modest 43.5-point total.”

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Picks

• ATS Pick: Seattle Seahawks +1.5
• O/U Pick: Over 49.0

A.I. rationale: “The NFC West title game between the Seahawks and 49ers presents a fascinating matchup, with significant line movement favoring the visiting Seahawks. Opening as 4.5-point underdogs, Seattle has seen the spread shrink to just 1.5 points, indicating strong market confidence. While both teams enter with impressive 5-0 records in their last five games, the Seahawks boast a superior overall ATS record (11-5 vs. 10-6). Seattle’s defense has been more stifling, allowing just 18.06 points per game compared to San Francisco’s 22.38, and generating a more effective pass rush (2.75 sacks per game vs. 1.12). However, the 49ers’ offense is highly efficient, excelling in third-down conversions (51.0%) and red zone efficiency (66.2%). The total has also surged from 44.5 to 49.5, suggesting a high-scoring affair. Given the line movement and Seattle’s defensive edge, backing the Seahawks with the points is the sharper play. The increased total, supported by both teams’ high-scoring tendencies, points to the Over.”

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings Picks

• ATS Pick: Minnesota Vikings -6.5
• O/U Pick: Under 37.5

A.I. rationale: “The NFC North clash between the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings has seen significant line movement, with the Vikings shifting from slight underdogs to 6.5-point favorites and the total plummeting from 44.5 to 36.5. This dramatic shift suggests strong market confidence in a dominant defensive performance from Minnesota in what is expected to be a low-scoring affair. While Green Bay holds a slight edge in overall offensive potency (24.0 PPG vs. 20.2 PPG) and third-down efficiency (50.3% vs. 32.4%), the Vikings have been red-hot recently, going 4-1 in their last five games and covering the spread in all four of those wins. Minnesota’s defense has also been formidable, allowing fewer points and yards per game than Green Bay. Given the significant line adjustment and the expectation of a defensive battle, taking the Vikings to cover the spread and the Under on the total aligns with current market sentiment and recent performance trends.”

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals Picks

• ATS Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -7.0
• O/U Pick: Under 44.5

A.I. rationale: “The Cincinnati Bengals, motivated by playoff positioning, host a struggling Cleveland Browns team in a divisional matchup. The Bengals boast a significantly more potent offense, averaging 24.5 points per game compared to the Browns’ anemic 16.1, and demonstrate superior efficiency in the red zone (66.0% vs. 54.1%) and on third downs (43.3% vs. 33.5%). While the Browns’ defense is formidable, allowing only 22.56 points and 278.62 yards per game, their offense is severely hampered by a league-worst -10 turnover differential. The Bengals have also been strong against the spread recently, covering in 4 of their last 5 games. Despite a slight line movement towards the Browns, the Bengals’ offensive advantages and motivation should allow them to cover the 7.5-point spread. Given the Browns’ offensive struggles, the total is likely to stay Under the projected 44.5 points.”

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants Picks

• ATS Pick: Dallas Cowboys -5.0
• O/U Pick: Over 52.5

The Dallas Cowboys travel to face the New York Giants in a crucial divisional matchup with playoff seeding implications. The Cowboys boast a high-powered offense, averaging 27.8 points per game and 398.6 total yards, significantly outperforming the Giants’ 21.4 points and 330.6 yards per game. Dallas is particularly efficient on third downs (41.8%) and in the red zone (57.4%). While the Cowboys’ defense has shown some vulnerability, allowing 29.81 points per game, the Giants’ offense struggles to convert in the red zone (48.1%). Recent trends show the Cowboys going Over in all of their last five games, and the Giants have gone Over in four of their last five. The betting line has moved significantly towards the Cowboys and the Over, reflecting confidence in Dallas’s offensive capabilities. Given the Cowboys’ motivation for seeding and their offensive firepower, backing them to cover the 5.5-point spread and the Over on the 52.5 total is the recommended play.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons Picks

• ATS Pick: New Orleans Saints +2.5
• O/U Pick: Under 43.5

A.I. rationale: “The NFC South clash between the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons is a pivotal game for both teams. The Saints enter this matchup in excellent recent form, boasting a 4-1 record straight up and a perfect 5-0 against the spread in their last five games. Their defense has been a key factor, allowing just 22.75 points per game and excelling in red zone defense (54.55% allowed). While the Falcons’ offense is slightly more potent (20.2 PPG vs. 17.9 PPG) and more efficient in the red zone (64.4% vs. 42.9%), the Saints’ strong recent performance and the betting line movement favoring them suggest value in taking the underdog. Given the Saints’ defensive prowess and their tendency to play lower-scoring games (5 Over / 11 Under on the season), the Under on the total is also an attractive play.”

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans Picks

• ATS Pick: Indianapolis Colts +10.5
• O/U Pick: Over 39.5

A.I. rationale: “The 10.5-point spread appears to significantly undervalue Indianapolis’s offensive capabilities in this AFC South rivalry. The Colts boast superior scoring output at 27.0 points per game versus Houston’s 22.8, while demonstrating elite red zone efficiency at 66.1% compared to the Texans’ struggling 45.1% conversion rate. This finishing ability becomes crucial in close divisional games where field position battles determine outcomes. Houston’s defense deserves respect, allowing merely 16.56 points per game with a +14 turnover differential that has masked some offensive limitations. However, laying double-digits in any division rivalry requires exceptional circumstances, particularly when the underdog possesses clear offensive advantages in key situational metrics. The over recommendation centers on Indianapolis’s defensive vulnerabilities rather than offensive strength. The Colts surrender 23.38 points per game and allow 266.06 passing yards per contest, creating ample opportunities for Houston’s aerial attack. With Indianapolis’s proven scoring ability (27.25 PPG) facing a Texans offense that should exploit defensive weaknesses, this total appears artificially depressed at 40.5 points.”

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Picks

• ATS Pick: Tennessee Titans +12.0
• O/U Pick: Under 47.5

A.I. rationale: “Jacksonville’s recent momentum has been strong, but laying 11.5 points in any divisional finale presents significant risk regardless of recent form. The Tennessee Titans offense has struggled mightily, averaging just 17.2 points and 263.7 total yards per game, yet their defensive pass rush generates consistent pressure with an average of 2.50 sacks per game. The Jaguars’ impressive turnover differential provides a substantial edge in field position battles, but Tennessee’s pride and defensive capabilities should prevent a complete blowout scenario. Division rivalries historically produce closer margins than regular-season spreads suggest, particularly when the underdog faces elimination or draft positioning implications. The under recommendation aligns with Tennessee’s offensive limitations rather than Jacksonville’s defensive strength. The Titans convert just 32% of third-down attempts while facing a Jaguars defense allowing only 20.56 points per game and a stingy 86.12 rushing yards per contest. Even accounting for Jacksonville’s offensive output, Tennessee’s inability to sustain drives should keep this contest below the inflated 47.5-point total that has risen with recent line movement.”

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots Pick

• ATS Pick: New England Patriots -9.5
• Over/Under Pick: Over 45.5

A.I. rationale: “The Patriots enter Week 18 with significant momentum, having clinched the AFC East and making a surprising turnaround under new leadership, as noted in recent news. Their offense has been potent, averaging 27.8 points per game, significantly higher than the Dolphins’ 20.8 PPG. New England also excels on third downs (42.6% conversion rate). While the Dolphins have shown offensive struggles, the Patriots’ high-scoring trend and their dominant performance in recent games (4-1 straight up and 3-2 ATS in their last five) suggest they can cover the substantial spread. The Over pick is supported by the Patriots’ high-scoring offense, which has contributed to them hitting the Over in 4 of their last 5 games, and their overall 10-6 Over record this season.”

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams Picks

• ATS Pick: Los Angeles Rams -9.0
• Over/Under Pick: Over 47.5

A.I. rationale: “The algorithmic model strongly endorses the Rams laying the substantial number, driven by overwhelming offensive superiority and ball security metrics. Los Angeles generates 30.5 points per game compared to Arizona’s anemic 20.7 PPG output, creating an 9.8-point scoring differential that justifies the large spread. The Rams’ exceptional +11 turnover differential contrasts sharply with the Cardinals’ -1 mark, indicating superior field position and short-field scoring opportunities. Recent against-the-spread performance further supports this position, as Los Angeles has covered in four of five contests.

The over selection capitalizes on Arizona’s defensive vulnerabilities and the Rams’ red zone efficiency. Cardinals opponents average a devastating 28.19 points per game while converting 47.65% of their offensive drives into scores—metrics that spell disaster against Los Angeles’ 65.2% red zone touchdown conversion rate. When their offense finds rhythm, this establishes a clear trend toward high-scoring affairs.”

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills Pick

• ATS Pick: Buffalo Bills -8.5
• Over/Under Pick: Over 39.0

A.I. rationale: “The Buffalo Bills enter this matchup as strong favorites, reflecting their recent dominance and a clear path to securing the AFC’s No. 2 seed. Their high-octane offense averages 27.8 points per game, significantly outscoring the Jets’ struggling unit at 17.5 PPG. The Bills also boast superior third-down efficiency (44.7% conversion rate) and red zone touchdown percentage (64.4%) compared to the Jets. In their last five games, Buffalo has a strong 4-1 straight-up record. The Jets, conversely, have a 1-4 straight-up record in their last five, highlighting their offensive inconsistencies. The Bills’ offensive prowess and the Jets’ struggles make Buffalo a strong pick to cover the spread, while the Over is supported by Buffalo’s high scoring and 3-2 Over record in their last five games.”

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles Picks

• ATS Pick: Washington Commanders +8.5
• Over/Under Pick: Over 41.5

A.I. rationale: “Despite Philadelphia’s superior roster talent, the model identifies value backing Washington with the substantial cushion in this divisional rivalry. The 8.5-point spread appears inflated when examining offensive production metrics, as the Commanders actually out-gain Philadelphia in total yardage (321.6 to 311.5 yards per game). Both teams convert third downs at nearly identical rates—36.5% for Washington versus 36.7% for the Eagles—suggesting competitive offensive capabilities that should keep this contest within the number.

Washington’s primary weakness lies in ball security, reflected in their league-worst -13 turnover differential. However, their recent against-the-spread performance (3-2 in last five games) indicates they’ve competed well as underdogs throughout the season. The over recommendation stems from Washington’s defensive liabilities, which allow 27.12 points per game and a catastrophic 8.26 yards per pass attempt. Philadelphia’s clinical red zone execution (70.7% touchdown rate) positions this game to surpass the modest 42.5 total.”

Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos Pick

• ATS Pick: Los Angeles Chargers +7.5
• Over/Under Pick: Under 39.5

A.I. rationale: “Despite the Broncos’ strong home-field advantage and their push for a playoff spot, the Chargers present value with the large spread. Denver’s offense, while potent, has shown a tendency for turnovers (-6 differential on the season), which could give the Chargers extra opportunities. The Chargers have a strong third-down conversion rate (46.8%) and have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games (80%), indicating their ability to stay competitive as underdogs. The Under pick aligns with Denver’s defense-first identity and both teams’ relatively lower offensive scoring averages compared to other matchups. The Broncos’ defense also boasts a strong pass rush (64 sacks on the season), which could limit scoring opportunities.”

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Picks

• ATS Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -5.5
• Over/Under Pick: Under 36.5

A.I. rationale: “The Kansas City Chiefs, despite a less-than-dominant overall record, are still considered AFC favorites and are looking to secure a top seed. Their road dominance is a key factor, and they face a Raiders team that has had a dismal season, suggesting the Chiefs can cover this spread. The Raiders’ offense has struggled significantly, averaging only 14.1 points per game and showing an offensive declining trend. While the Chiefs’ offense has also been inconsistent recently, the overall offensive struggles of the Raiders, combined with the Chiefs’ defensive capabilities, point towards an Under outcome for the total.”

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears Picks

• ATS Pick: Chicago Bears -2.5
• Over/Under Pick: Over 49.5

A.I. rationale: “The Chicago Bears enter this matchup with significant offensive momentum, as noted in recent news, which has seen their unit find a rhythm. Their recent performance against the spread (4-1 ATS in their last five games) indicates strong market confidence. The Bears boast a higher third-down conversion rate (43.1%) compared to the Lions (38.3%), suggesting their offense can sustain drives. While the Lions have a potent offense (28.6 PPG), the Bears’ ability to cover as home underdogs and their recent offensive surge make them a compelling pick against the spread. The Over pick is supported by the Lions’ high-scoring offense and the Bears’ recent offensive rhythm, contributing to a projected high-scoring affair.

The contrarian over selection directly opposes public perception of a low-scoring affair. The combined scoring averages for both teams (47.8 points) significantly exceed the 41.5 total, creating immediate mathematical value. Baltimore has eclipsed totals in 10 of 16 games this season (62.5%), while both offenses consistently move the ball—the Ravens average 330.5 total yards per game. Even accounting for red zone struggles (Baltimore converts just 47.5% compared to Pittsburgh’s 59.6%), the model projects sufficient offensive production through field goals and sustained drives to push this rivalry game past its deflated number.”

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers Picks

• ATS Pick: Baltimore Ravens -3.0
• Over/Under Pick: Over 41.0

A.I. rationale: “The model favors Baltimore’s superior offensive efficiency in this classic AFC North battle, despite market sentiment leaning toward a defensive struggle. The Ravens generate 24.9 points per game while converting 41.4% of third-down attempts compared to Pittsburgh’s 38.7% success rate on money downs. Baltimore’s punishing ground attack, averaging over 157 rushing yards per contest, provides the perfect formula to control tempo and wear down the Steelers’ defensive front throughout four quarters.

The contrarian over selection directly opposes public perception of a low-scoring affair. The combined scoring averages for both teams (47.8 points) significantly exceed the 41.5 total, creating immediate mathematical value. Baltimore has eclipsed totals in 10 of 16 games this season (62.5%), while both offenses consistently move the ball—the Ravens average 330.5 total yards per game. Even accounting for red zone struggles (Baltimore converts just 47.5% compared to Pittsburgh’s 59.6%), the model projects sufficient offensive production through field goals and sustained drives to push this rivalry game past its deflated number.”