Spurs vs Thunder Picks, Player Props, Injuries & Betting Splits (Jan 13)

• The Spurs visit the Thunder on Tuesday night, looking to improve to 4-0 SU against OKC this year
• With Devin Vassell sidelined, the Spurs’ offense will run through Victor Wembanyama
• See expert Spurs vs Thunder picks and player props to bet, plus the latest betting splits and injuries

A compelling Western Conference battle unfolds as the San Antonio Spurs (27-12, 13-7 away, 23-16 ATS) visit the Oklahoma City Thunder (33-7, 19-2 home,18-22 ATS) at the Paycom Center at 8:00 pm ET/7:00 pm CT. NBC/Peacock will carry the national broadcast. The host Thunder enter as clear favorites, riding momentum from a commanding 124-112 victory over the Miami Heat. Meanwhile, the Spurs arrive as road underdogs looking to bounce back from a heartbreaking 104-103 last-second loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The primary storyline is the clash between the explosive scoring of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 6.4 APG) and the dominant rim protection of Victor Wembanyama (24.3 PPG, 11.1 RPG, 3.1 APG, 2.8 BPG). The former continues to lead the NBA MVP odds, while the latter was in the hunt until missing 14 games due to injury.

San Antonio’s challenge intensifies with starting guard Devin Vassell (15.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.4 APG) ruled out, forcing the offense to flow even more heavily through their generational big man. Below, I have set out my Spurs vs Thunder expert picks and predictions, a massive list of player props, the latest betting splits, and the key injuries.

Jump to: PICKS || PROPS || ODDS || SPLITS || INJURIES

Spurs vs Thunder Prediction, Picks & Best Bets

While the Oklahoma City Thunder rightfully command respect as home favorites with their stellar 19-2 record at Paycom Center, the betting trends reveal a compelling narrative that favors the underdog Spurs covering the spread. The numbers tell a story of consistent value when backing San Antonio in this specific matchup.

The foundation of this pick rests on powerful situational trends. San Antonio has thrived when stepping up in class, posting a dominant 6-2 record against the spread in their last eight games versus opponents with winning records. Even more impressive, the Spurs have covered at an identical 6-2 rate against top-ten scoring defenses, demonstrating their ability to generate offense against elite units like Oklahoma City’s.

Conversely, the Thunder have struggled mightily to justify the betting lines in this head-to-head series. Oklahoma City holds a dismal 1-5 ATS record in their last six meetings with the Spurs, consistently failing to win by the margins oddsmakers project. This historical dominance by San Antonio creates significant value at the current +7.5 number.

The total market presents equally compelling evidence for the under. San Antonio has seen the over fail in each of their last four road games against winning teams, while the Thunder have trended toward lower-scoring affairs against stout defensive units, with the under hitting in three of their last four contests against top-10 scoring defenses. The interior battle between Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren figures to limit easy baskets for both sides.

• ATS Pick: Spurs +9.0 (-110) at Fanatics
• Game-Total Prediction: Under 231.0 (-122) at BetRivers
• Best Prop Bet: Wembanyama Over 2.5 Blocks (+130) at BetMGM

Spurs vs Thunder Player Props

The individual matchups in this game present a treasure trove of opportunities for player prop bettors. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring, Victor Wembanyama’s all-around dominance, and the contributions of key role players will all be under the microscope. Above are the current consensus prop lines for the key players in this contest.

Prop Market Analysis

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Points): The market is somewhat divided on SGA’s scoring total. While books like DraftKings and Caesars have the line at 30.5, the MGM is holding firm at 31.5. At the higher number, the under is juiced to -122, suggesting the market believes 32 points is a tall order.

Victor Wembanyama (Rebounds): Wembanyama’s rebounding line is set at a sharp 9.5 boards, with the odds nearly a pick’em (-114 over / -115 under). This indicates that oddsmakers see it as a true coin flip whether he reaches double-digit rebounds, with no significant market lean in either direction since the line opened.

Chet Holmgren (Points): There has been notable upward movement on Holmgren’s point total. After opening at 15.5 at books like MGM and BetRivers, the line has been bet up to 16.5 across most of the market.

Jalen Williams (Points): While Williams’ line is holding steady at 17.5, the price to bet the under has become more expensive. It opened at -125 at MGM and is now as high as -132 at FanDuel for Jalen Williams’ points total.

Latest Spurs vs Thunder Odds & Lines

The best Thunder moneyline at the moment is -311 at bet365, while the Spurs are as long as +270 at Caesars . The spread shows a rare 1.5-point range from book to book: Caesars is offering the Spurs at +9 (-110), while BetMGM has OKC at just -7.5 (-115).

The game total ranges from 229.5 (Ov -110) at FanDuel to 231.0 (Un -122) at BetRivers.

Odds commentary as of 2:51 pm ET. The lines in the table above will update automatically with the best-available price for each market if the NBA odds move before tip-off.

Spurs vs Thunder Public-Betting Splits: Sharp Money Backs Spurs Upset

The NBA public betting splits reveal a fascinating divergence between casual and professional money, particularly on the moneyline where a classic sharp-versus-public dynamic is developing.

Spread Market: Public sentiment strongly favors the underdog, with 73.5% of all spread bets backing San Antonio to cover. The handle mirrors this confidence, with 60.3% of the total money wagered on the Spurs. This consensus aligns perfectly with our analysis, suggesting widespread recognition that Oklahoma City’s line may be inflated.

Moneyline Market: Here’s where the intrigue unfolds. While 66.3% of individual tickets support the Thunder to win outright, a staggering 71.9% of the total money is backing the Spurs for the upset. This sharp versus public split indicates that larger, more sophisticated wagers are finding value in San Antonio’s plus-money odds, despite the majority of casual bettors taking the favorite.

Total Market: The public overwhelmingly expects a high-scoring affair, with 69.7% of bets and 69.1% of the money backing the over. This heavy public lean toward points, combined with the strong defensive trends supporting the under, positions our total pick as a contrarian play against popular consensus.

OKC vs SAS Statistical Breakdown

The season statistics reveal two high-powered offenses operating at different levels of efficiency, with Oklahoma City’s elite ball security and transition scoring creating the primary advantage. However, San Antonio’s superior offensive rebounding presents a clear path to generating extra possessions and keeping pace.

The Thunder’s dominance stems from their exceptional ball security and opportunistic scoring. Leading the NBA with 25.1 points off turnovers per game while maintaining the second-best assist-to-turnover ratio (2.1), Oklahoma City simply doesn’t beat itself. This efficiency, combined with their fifth-ranked offensive rating, makes them a nightmare matchup for careless opponents.

However, San Antonio possesses a crucial advantage on the offensive glass, generating 16.6 second-chance points per road game compared to Oklahoma City’s 13.7 at home. This disparity in offensive rebounding could prove decisive, as the Spurs can create additional scoring opportunities even when their initial offense struggles.

The interior battle between Wembanyama and Holmgren takes on added significance given both teams’ reliance on paint scoring. With each squad generating over 50 points per game in the lane, the defensive presence of these elite rim protectors will heavily influence the game’s flow. This interior focus supports Wembanyama’s blocks prop, as the Thunder’s aggressive paint attacks should provide multiple opportunities for defensive highlights.

Injury Report Impact: Vassell’s Absence Shifts Offensive Balance

The injury situation will significantly impact both teams’ rotations, with San Antonio facing the more substantial challenge in replacing a key starter’s production. The Thunder’s frontcourt depth takes a hit as well, potentially creating opportunities for the visiting team to exploit.

Vassell’s abcence represents the game’s most significant personnel loss, removing a reliable 15+ point scorer who spaces the floor effectively. This forces San Antonio to operate with a more predictable offensive structure, potentially allowing Oklahoma City’s defense to focus additional attention on Wembanyama. However, this increased usage could translate to enhanced statistical production for the young star, particularly in defensive categories like blocks.

The Thunder’s loss of Hartenstein creates depth concerns in their frontcourt rotation, especially important given the physical nature expected in the paint battle between Wembanyama and Holmgren. With fewer quality backup options available, Oklahoma City may be forced into smaller lineups or extended minutes for their starters, potentially creating fatigue factors late in the game.

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