NFL Divisional Round Picks & Upset Predictions from A.I. Model

• The NFL Divisional Round will feature four games on January 17th and 18th
• I have asked our A.I. model to make its four best moneyline value picks
• Below, see A.I. picks and score predictions for all four Divisional Round games

The NFL Divisional Round includes two Saturday games (Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos at 4:30 pm ET, San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks at 8:00 pm ET) and two Sunday games (Houston Texans vs New England Patriots at 3:00 pm ET, LA Rams vs Chicago Bears at 6:30 pm ET). The Bills and Rams are road favorites, while the Patriots and Seahawks are laying points at home in the Divisional Round odds. The Seahawks and Rams enter the Divisional Round as favorites in the Super Bowl odds despite residing in the same conference, while the Patriots have the best Super Bowl odds in the AFC.

I have asked our internal A.I. model to generate its top moneyline picks and score predictions for all four games. The table below sets out its Divisional Round picks and predictions. Under the table, find its explanation for each pick.

NFL Divisional Round Predictions 2026

After analyzing matchup dynamics, historical trends, and situational advantages, three moneyline selections emerge as the most compelling betting opportunities for the divisional round.

Best odds as of 10:42 am ET, January 14th. Claim the top NFL betting promos for the 2026 Divisional Round.

Buffalo vs Denver Pick: Bills Moneyline (-108 at DraftKings)

A.I. rationale: “The Buffalo Bills, with moneyline odds of -108, present a compelling betting opportunity with an implied win probability of 51.92%. Despite a recent 14-player injury report, their resilience is evident in having won their last four road games, three against playoff-caliber competition (Jaguars, Patriots, Steelers). Buffalo covered the spread in all four of those games and routed Denver in the playoffs last season. Though the Broncos have home-field advantage this time around, Josh Allen’s playoff experience will be decisive, just as it was last week in his team’s thrilling 27-24 win in Jacksonville against a considerably better offense than he’ll face in Denver.”

San Francisco vs Seattle Pick: 49ers Moneyline (+285 at FanDuel)

A.I. rationale: “Seattle is more likely to win the game but San Francisco presents significantly better moneyline value at +285 in what projects as a tight, one-score game.

The Seahawks have won 11 straight games as a favorite, but they went 1-1 against the Niners in the regular season and San Francisco will be intimately familiar with everything Mike Macdonald and his staff will throw at them. The 49ers’ offense excelled on third downs in Philadelphia last week, with a 54.5% conversion rate. If they can maintain or approach that percentage, that could be the difference in this third meeting of the season between these fierce NFC West rivals.”

Houston vs New England Pick: Texans Moneyline (+150 at bet365)

A.I. rationale: “As with the 49ers/Seahawks game, the underdog is better moneyline value, though the home team is more likely to win. At +150 odds, the Texans have just a 40% implied win probability. The 23-21 score prediction puts Houston’s true win probability significantly closer to 50%. Houston enters the Divisional Round on a ten-game win streak, by far the best in the NFL.”

Los Angeles vs Chicago Pick: Rams Moneyline (-198 at DraftKings)

A.I. rationale: “The Los Angeles Rams are solid value as a -198 moneyline bet, which carries an implied win probability of 66.44%. Their strong performance as favorites is evident in their impressive 17-3 record in their last 20 games in that role, including a 7-3 ATS record in their last ten games when favored by fewer than seven points. The Rams put on the best offensive performance of the Wild Card round, piling up 34 points and 411 total yards. The Bears were able to mount an improbable comeback against the Packers last week despite getting outplayed for the vast majority of the game. Super Bowl-winners Sean Mcvay and Matthew Stafford won’t let them off the hook in the Divisional Round.”