49ers vs Seahawks Expert Picks, Best Bets & Public Betting Splits (Divisional Round)

Published: January 17, 2026 at 4:29 am EST

San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey getting tackled by Seattle Seahawks cornerback Tyler Hall — Jan 3, 2026; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) rushes the ball against Seattle Seahawks cornerback Tyler Hall (33) during the first half at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-Imagn Images

The Divisional Round spotlight shines on a classic NFC West rivalry as the San Francisco 49ers (13-5, 8-2 away, 12-6 ATS) travel to face the Seattle Seahawks (14-3, 6-2 home, 12-5 ATS) at Lumen Field on Saturday night (5:00 pm PT/8:00 pm ET).

The Seahawks enter as touchdown-favorites over the injury-riddled Niners, buoyed by their passionate fanbase and a 49ers team ravaged by defensive injuries. The primary narrative centers on San Francisco’s decimated linebacker corps, headlined by the confirmed absence of four-time First-Team All-Pro Fred Warner, whose ankle injury creates a massive vulnerability in the heart of their defense.

Below, I have set out my top 49ers vs Seahawks picks and best bets, plus the updated lines, and betting splits.

Go to: EXPERT PICKS || ODDS || SPLITS || INJURIES

49ers vs Seahawks Expert Predictions: Divisional Round Analysis

Spread Prediction: 49ers +7.5 (-115 at Fanatics)

The absence of Fred Warner (ankle) and others on the Niner sideline is being overblown. They faced this same scenario last week in Philadelphia, when the spread ballooned from the opening line of PHI -2.5 to nearly a touchdown before the Niners won straight up (23-19). The injuries are being overvalued by sportsbooks.

The San Francisco defense would undoubtedly be better with Warner on the field, but this isn’t a novel situation.

The 49ers’ offense was highly efficient last week in Philly, with a 54.5% third-down conversion rate and 66.7% red-zone touchdown percentage They just took down the defending champs and they have more than enough offensive firepower and defensive depth to stay competitive with the Seahawks.

Best Player Prop: Kenneth Walker III Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at BetMGM)

While I don’t expect the absence of Warner to impact San Francisco’s ability to cover the massive spread, it should lead to a relatively big night for Seattle RB1 Kenneth Walker III.

Warner ranks among the NFL’s elite run-stopping linebackers, and his absence creates a clear pathway for Walker to pick up 60+ yards. Seattle’s game plan will likely emphasize early run establishment to control possession and attack the compromised middle of San Francisco’s defense.

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks Odds

The Seahawks, who opened as seven-point favorites, are still laying a full touchdown across the board. On the moneyline, Seattle is -325 or shorter with BetMGM currently offering the best price on a Seahawk victory. The best odds on a 49er upset are +270 at bet365.

The total ranges from 44.5 to 45.5 with the best over option at FanDuel (44.5 at -118) and the best under option at DraftKings (45.5 (-118).

Removing the bookmaker’s vig, the normalized probability gives Seattle approximately 74.1% chance of advancing, compared to 25.9% for the 49ers.

Odds commentary as of 12: 15 am ET, January 17th. The lines in the table will update automatically if the NFL odds move before kickoff.

49ers vs Seahawks Public-Betting Trends: Sharp vs Public Money

Market	SF	SEA
Spread	76% bets, 70% handle	24% bets, 30% handle
Moneyline	35% bets, 59% handle	65% bets, 41% handle
Total	Ov: 61% bets, 46% handle	Un: 39% bets, 54% handle

The NFL public betting handle for this Divisional Round showdown reveals a fascinating contrast between casual and professional wagering patterns. This classic sharp-vs-public divide shows recreational bettors backing the Seahawks, while larger, more-sophisticated money is on the Niners.

Current betting handle breakdown:

Spread: A significant majority of professional money backs the underdog, with 70% of the handle on San Francisco +7
Moneyline: Despite their underdog status, the 49ers attract the bigger wagers, as 59% of the money supports the San Francisco moneyline. This contrasts sharply with 65% of individual tickets favoring Seattle, indicating smaller recreational wagers on the favorite while substantial professional money backs the upset
Total: Large money leans toward a defensive struggle, with 54% of the handle on Under 44.5 points, opposing 61% of individual bet slips supporting the Over.

49ers vs Seahawks Injury Reports: Critical Absences

Player	Team	Position	Injury	Status	Impact
Fred Warner	49ers	LB	Ankle	Out	Devastates run defense and underneath coverage
Ji’Ayir Brown	49ers	SAF	Hamstring	Doubtful	Weakens an already vulnerable secondary
Luke Gifford	49ers	LB	Quadricep	Doubtful	Compounds linebacker-depth issues
Yetur Gross-Matos	49ers	DL	Knee	Doubtful	Reduces defensive-line rotation and pass-rush effectiveness
Ricky Pearsall	49ers	WR	Knee	Questionable	Absence would hurt passing game depth
Riq Woolen	Seahawks	CB	Oblique	Questionable	Any limitation for the starting cornerback benefits 49ers’ receivers
Ernest Jones IV	Seahawks	LB	Illness	Questionable	Negatively impacts Seattle’s run-defense integrity

Both teams enter this elimination game with significant names on their injury reports, though San Francisco faces far more impactful losses. All injury statuses reflect the January 15 final practice report.

Sascha Paruk

Managing Editor

Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.

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