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Lightning vs Stars Odds, Prediction & Best NHL Bet for Sunday (Jan. 18)

Michael Harrison

By Michael Harrison in NHL Hockey

Published:


Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Nikita Kucherov skates against the Buffalo Sabres
Apr 15, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Nikita Kucherov (86) skates against the Buffalo Sabres during the first period at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Lightning are a -114 road moneyline favorite over the Stars on Sunday, Jan. 18th
  • Both teams have gone in totally different directions in the last month
  • See my Lightning vs Stars predictions below, plus prop pick and lineups

The puck drops Sunday in a battle between two strong contenders in the Stanley Cup Odds, with Tampa Bay sporting the second-shortest odds at +700 and Dallas at +1600.

The Lightning (29-13-4, 22-24 ATS, 62 pts) square off against the Stars (27-12-9, 19-29 ATS, 63 pts), with the Bolts tops in the Atlantic and the Stars second in the Central entering play Saturday.

Action is set to get underway at 2 pm ET / 11 am PT from American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas, with NHL Network providing the coverage in the United States and Rogers Sportsnet showcasing it in Canada.

Lightning vs Stars Prediction

My Lightning vs Stars prediction has me riding with the hot hand in Tampa Bay to continue their remarkable run. They’re 11-0-1 in the last 12 duels, and have won five of the last seven meetings versus Dallas.

Per the NHL odds, it’s extremely close in the betting odds between the Lightning vs Stars. Dallas has been on a tailspin, dropping nine of their last eleven (2-5-4). With their torrid start to the season, Dallas is in no way in jeopardy of crashing out, as they’re more than comfortably in a playoff spot. Big D sits second in the West entering play Saturday.

I’m hesitant to select the over or the under in terms of goals, because while TB’s games have gone over 5.5 markers in eight of ten. Dallas has been under the total in four of five, making it a difficult case to be made either way, so I’m rather select the team that’s rolling to emerge victorious on the moneyline.

TB vs DAL Season Stats/Ranks Entering Saturday

Tampa BayStatDallas
29-13-4 (62 pts)Record27-12-9 (63 pts)
3.48 (2nd)Goals For/Game3.31 (6th)
2.54 (2nd)Goals Against/Game2.75 (5th)
21.1% (14th)Power Play28.8% (3rd)
83.9% (3rd)Penalty Kill79.7% (14th)

The Stars actually have one more point than the Lightning on the campaign, but coming into this one, you’d swear TB was way ahead of them. That’s because the Bolts are on a 12-game point streak, going 11-0-1, while the Stars have been limping with just two victories in the last eleven affairs, going 2-5-4. Both squads have been fantastic at scoring and also keeping the puck out of their net, though that hasn’t been the case for Dallas’ bad stretch.

Lightning vs Stars Props Pick

  • Nikita Kucherov Anytime Goal Scorer (+135 at FanDuel)

For a prop bet, I’m going with the chalk pick of Nikita Kucherov to light the lamp, despite him being the favorite at +135 and not having amazing value. He’s registered a goal in a whopping eight of his last ten battles, racking up elven snipes in the process (three games he scored twice).

If you want to parlay the Lightning to win on the moneyline, plus Kucherov to score, that total pays out a cool +215.

Lightning vs Stars Odds

Bet TypeTampa BayDallas
Puck Line-1.5 (+205)+1.5 (-260)
TotalO 5.5 (-140)U 5.5 (+114)
Moneyline-114-105

The Lightning are slight -114 moneyline favorites and are laying 1.5 goals on the puck line at +205. The Stars come back as a -105 underdog, while the total currently sits at 5.5 goals at FanDuel.

The implied win probability of TB at -250 is 53.3%. You’d need to wager $114 on the favorites to win $100, while a $105 bet on the underdogs clears $100.

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Updated odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 9:00 a.m. ET on Jan. 18.

Lightning vs Stars Projected Lineups

Tampa Bay Projected Lineup

Forwards

Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Nikita Kucherov

Gage Goncalves – Nick Paul – Jake Guentzel

Zemgus Girgensons– Yanni Gourde – Pontus Holmberg

Oliver Bjorkstrand – Jack Finley – Dominic James

Defense

J.J Moser – Darren Raddysh

Charle-Edouard D’Astous – Erik Cernak

Declan Carlile – Maxwell Crozier

Goaltenders

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Jonas Johansson

Injuries: Brayden Point (lower body), Victor Hedman (elbow), Ryan McDonagh (undisclosed), Scott Sabourin (undisclosed), Emil Lilleberg (undisclosed)

Dallas Projected Lineup

Forwards

Sam Steel – Wyatt Johnston – Mikko Rantanen

Jason Robertson – Roope Hintz – Matt Duchene

Oskar Back – Justin Hryckowian – Mavrik Bourque

Jamie Benn – Radek Faksa – Adam Erne

Defense

Esa Lindell – Nils Lundkvist

Thomas Harley – Alex Petrovic

Kyle Capobianco – Ilya Lyubushkin

Goaltenders

Jake Oettinger

Casey DeSmith

Injuries: Tyler Seguin (torn ACL), Miro Heiskanen (knee), Lian Bichsel (lower body)

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Michael Harrison
Michael Harrison

Sports & Entertainment Writer

Michael "Hound Dog" Harrison is well known in the sports industry as the resident statistician for the SC with Jay Onrait Show. He has worked at TSN for over 19 years, is the CEO of his "All Bets Par Off" weekly golf betting videos and his HDOG POD, along with several others.

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