Alcaraz vs Zverev Predictions, Picks, Best Bets & Odds (Jan 29)

• Carlos Alcaraz is a -600 favorite over Alexander Zverev in semifinal action at the Australian Open
• Alcaraz needs an Australian Open to complete the career Grand Slam
• See my Alcaraz vs Zverev predictions, odds and props to bet below

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Top-ranked Carlos Alvarez is chasing the final puzzle for his career Grand Slam. Third-seeded Alexander Zverev is looking for his elusive first Grand Slam title.

One of those dreams will end Thursday, when the two clash in the semifinals of the Australian Open, with the winner battling the winner of Jannik Sinner-Novak Djokovic for the first major championship of the season.

Even though Zverev has held his own against the Spaniard, he’s still an extremely heavy underdog to get to the final in the Australian Open odds.

Alcaraz vs Zverev set for Thursday night at 10:30pm ET from Rod Laver Arena, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Alcaraz vs Zverev Picks & Prediction

• Over 35.5 Games (-120 at bet365)

Even as dominant as Carlos Alcaraz has been in Melbourne, having not dropped a single set while mowing down three ranked players in a row, Alexander Zverev has shown the ability to compete with the top-ranked Spaniard, and that’s why I’m targeting the Over for my Alcaraz vs Zverev best bet.

Zverev has had all but one match go at least four sets, including a pretty intense battle with American Learner Tien in the quarterfinals that had two sets go to a tiebreaker.

These two have met four previous times in Grand Slam action, each having won two matches. But what’s most noteworthy is that only one was settled in straight sets: an Alcaraz 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 demolition of Zverev in the 2023 US Open.

The last time they met at a slam was at the 2024 French Open, and Alacaraz rallied to win the fourth and fifth sets and advance. It’s the lone matchup that has gone the distance on the major stage.

Zverev actually bounced Alacaraz here in 2024, in a lengthy 4-set duel where the German prevailed 6-1, 6-3, 6-7 (2), 6-4.

There’s a lot of personal legacy on the line here, and that should make for both compelling and gruelling tennis, a match that should definitely cruise Over that total.

Alcaraz vs Zverev Props to Bet

• Prop Pick #1: Alcaraz Over 20.5 Games Won (+100 at bet365)

It seems counterintuitive to pick Alcaraz to go over 20.5 games won, as the Spaniard has not hit the 21-game plateau through five matches at the Australian Open.

He did come close, winning a tiebreak and a 7-5 set over Tommy Paul in Round 4 to push the total to 20, his highest game-win total at the AO.

But a Zverev set makes almost guarantees Alcaraz goes Over the total.

• Prop Pick #2: Zverev Under 9.5 Aces (-120 at bet365)

The German’s serve has been quite a weapon in Melbourne, picking up at least 10 aces in four of his five matches so far, including a tourney-high 24 in his last match against Tien.

However, the game changes when dealing with one of the elite returners of serve in the sport. It’s no surprise that Zverev has het to crack double-digit aces in a Grand Slam match against Alcaraz thus far in their head-to-head career. It is a little surprising the line is set at 9.5.

Alcaraz vs Zverev Odds

There’s little value in taking Alcaraz to win outright, as he’s an extremely short -600 on the moneyline. There’s far better value in taking the spread at 6.5 games for the Spaniard, that pays out at +100 odds, but that gamble has its own risks.

Odds as of January 29 at bet365. Get a bet365 bonus code to wager on all tennis matches.

Zverev in a straight upset win pays out at +400 odds, and he’s got the last win between these two at the 2025 Cincinnati Open, taking it in two sets. The total is set to 35.5 games.

It’s hard to believe but this is the farthest Alcaraz has ever advanced at the Aussie Open, breaking a streak of three straight ousters in the quarterfinal.

But his form in Melbourne has been excellent, and he’s coming off his most dominant performance of the tournament yet, dismantling 6th-seeded Alex De Minaur in straight sets, dropping a total of nine games.

The Spaniard has capitalized on his break chances at the AO, converting better than 35% of his opportunities.

Alcaraz vs Zverev H2H Results

Like his opponent, Zverev hits big groundstrokes and likes to play a power game, but in recent matches with the world number 1, he’s been on the defensive, being moved around by Alcaraz’s power game on the baseline.

That’s a big reason why the German has just one win in the last four head-to-head matches.

Even if we don’t predict him to put up big ace numbers, Zverev’s best chance at contending in this match is to win points on his serve, which is one weapon that can give his opponent trouble.