By Brady Trettenero in NBA Basketball
Published:
The Oklahoma City Thunder (38-10, 17-5 away) take their show on the road to face the Minnesota Timberwolves (29-19, 16-8 home) in a potential Western Conference playoff preview. These teams split their six regular-season meetings since 2024-25 right down the middle with a combined point differential of zero.
Online sportsbooks favor OKC in the latest NBA odds, and for good reason. The Thunder own a massive rest advantage, while Minnesota is playing its fourth game in five days after a schedule shift.
Tip-off is set for 8:30 PM CT from Target Center in Minneapolis, with Amazon Prime Video providing the broadcast coverage. Let’s dive into my picks, predictions and props for Thunder vs Wolves.
The schedule spot heavily favors OKC. The Thunder are 13-0 this season with a rest advantage, extending a 19-game winning streak in such situations dating back to last year. That’s the longest active streak in the NBA by a wide margin, with Houston sitting second at just 8 straight.
Minnesota, meanwhile, is playing its fourth game in five days after Saturday’s contest against Golden State got postponed to Sunday. The Wolves have an all-time record of 22-58 (.275) when playing a fourth game in a 5-day span, the worst such mark in NBA history since they entered the league in 1989-90.
But there’s a catch. The Thunder are just 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with Minnesota, and the Wolves are 5-0 ATS at home in that span. The Timberwolves also boast the best point differential (zero) against OKC since the start of last season.
OKC’s defense is the best in basketball, allowing just 107.6 points per game. The Thunder have spent 34.4% of their game time with a double-digit lead this season, by far the highest rate in the league. They’ve actually spent more time leading by 10+ points (800:55) than they’ve spent trailing by any margin (607:08).
That dominance has been particularly pronounced when the ball moves. OKC is 27-0 this season when recording at least 25 assists as a team, extending a 38-game winning streak that’s the longest of its kind since the Spurs won 39 straight such games in 2015-16.
The problem for OKC is that they’re missing some key pieces. Jalen Williams (hamstring) remains out, and Alex Caruso (groin) has been ruled out. Cason Wallace (hip) is questionable. Without Williams, the Thunder lose 16.8 points per game and a secondary playmaker, funneling everything through Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The good news for OKC is Isaiah Hartenstein returns tonight after missing nearly a month with a calf strain. His absence was brutal on the glass – the Thunder ranked dead last in rebound percentage without him after ranking 18th before he went down.
Hartenstein’s return should take pressure off Chet Holmgren, who has three straight double-doubles and is making a push for his first All-Star nod. The Minneapolis native is averaging 17.9 points and 8.7 rebounds while ranking third in the NBA at 2.0 blocks per game.
I’m taking OKC -6.5 as my Thunder vs Timberwolves prediction. The rest advantage is too significant to ignore, and the Wolves have historically struggled in this scheduling spot. Even if Minnesota keeps it close early, expect the Thunder to pull away in the second half when fatigue sets in.
Ant has scored at least 30 in three of his last six games against OKC and cleared this number in a fourth. The NBA player props market is giving us a discount here because of the Thunder’s defense, but Edwards has been managing some foot pain and still hit this number in three of his last five games.
The biggest factor is Alex Caruso’s absence. Caruso’s disciplined on-ball pressure typically disrupts drives without sending opponents to the line, but he’s out with an adductor strain. Edwards should see cleaner looks at the basket without Caruso hounding him.
Edwards has put up at least 20 points in 19 straight games, the third-longest active streak in the NBA. With another 20-point outing tonight, he’d join Karl-Anthony Towns as the only Timberwolves to score 20+ in 20 straight games. The NBA MVP odds candidate lives for these showcase games.
SGA owns Minnesota. The reigning MVP has averaged 26.8 points with shooting splits of .508/.420/.901 in 25 career games against the Timberwolves. He’s one of only four players in league history to average 25+ PPG on 50/40/90 splits against a single opponent (minimum 20 games), joining Larry Bird, Kevin Durant and Steph Curry.
With Jalen Williams out, SGA’s usage rate spikes even higher. He’s in the midst of a 118-game streak with 20+ points, the second-longest in NBA history behind only Wilt Chamberlain’s 126-game run from 1961-63. The Canadian is averaging north of 32 points per game this season and should have no trouble getting to 30 tonight.
One word of caution: SGA is just 1-of-8 from three over his last three games, so his Under 1.5 threes prop is worth a look for same-game parlay purposes.
Few teams have consistently competed with OKC, but Minnesota has held its own. The teams have split their six regular-season meetings since 2024-25 with identical point totals (692-692). This rivalry has real teeth, especially after OKC’s 4-1 victory over Minnesota in last year’s Western Conference Finals.
Minnesota won the most recent meeting 112-107 at Target Center, covering as 5.5-point underdogs. That game fell short of the 232.5 total. In fact, both meetings this season have gone Under, which is worth noting with tonight’s number sitting at 228.
The Wolves have covered in both meetings this season and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against Oklahoma City overall. That’s a concerning trend for anyone laying a touchdown with the Thunder.
Julius Randle dropped 31 points in Minnesota’s last game against Dallas and sees another favorable matchup tonight. Rudy Gobert grabbed 17 rebounds just two games ago and is putting together what would be just the sixth NBA season averaging 10+ points and 10+ boards while shooting 70% from the field.
Gobert and Holmgren are two of only three players in the league with at least 75 dunks and 75 blocks this season. That frontcourt battle should be entertaining, with Holmgren coming off a 14-rebound performance against New Orleans and Gobert averaging 11.2 boards per game.
The Timberwolves started 2026 strong, going 6-1 in their first seven games of the new year. But that momentum has reversed with just two wins over their last seven contests. A five-game losing skid from Jan. 16-25 was Minnesota’s longest since a 6-game skid in December 2022.
Still, the Thunder present a tough matchup even for a rested opponent. They’re a near-lock for NBA Championship odds contention and should handle business in this scheduling spot.
This spread has moved sharply toward OKC. The line opened at Thunder -5.5 on Wednesday night and climbed to -7.0 on Thursday before settling at -6.5. The total has also risen from 225 to 227.5, as books expect a faster pace than the previous two meetings.
Odds as of Jan. 29 at DraftKings. New customers can claim the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to bet on the NBA.
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Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
Updated: 15 minutes ago
