Volkanovski vs Lopes 2 Odds, Prediction, Tale of the Tape & How to Watch UFC 325

• Alexander Volkanovski defends his featherweight title against Diego Lopes in a rematch at UFC 325
• Volkanovski won the first fight by unanimous decision in April 2025
• Check out the Volkanovski vs Lopes odds, prediction and tale of the tape below

Alexander Volkanovski puts his featherweight title on the line against Diego Lopes in the UFC 325 main event. This is a rematch of their April 2025 fight where Volkanovski won a clear unanimous decision to reclaim the belt.

UFC 325 takes place Saturday, February 1st at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia. The main card starts at 9 pm ET on Paramount+.

Let’s dive further into the latest Volkanovski vs Lopes odds, plus provide our UFC 325 prediction for Saturday’s main event.

Volkanovski vs Lopes Odds

Volkanovski is a -150 favorite at BetMGM, roughly the same price as the first fight despite winning four of five rounds. The fight going the distance is priced at +100 yes and -140 no. If you think Lopes needs a finish to win, his KO/TKO line at +330 offers solid value.

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2Odds as of January 301h at BetMGM. Grab a BetMGM promo code for UFC 325 or browse UFC betting apps.

Volkanovski vs Lopes Prediction

Volkanovski dominated the first fight. He landed 158 significant strikes to Lopes’ 63 and controlled the pace for most of 25 minutes. The only real threat came in the second round when Lopes dropped him with a clean shot. That’s the concern heading into this rematch.

Volk got knocked out by Ilia Topuria and Islam Makhachev in his previous two fights before beating Lopes. Those were the first stoppage losses of his career since a welterweight fight in 2013. At 37, the chin is a legitimate question mark. He absorbs 3.36 significant strikes per minute and has a 58% striking defense, but the damage from those championship fights adds up.

Lopes stayed active after the loss, knocking out Jean Silva with a spinning elbow in September. He’s 31 with an 85% finish rate across his career. The jiu-jitsu is elite, and he’s shown he can put guys away standing. If he’s more aggressive early and doesn’t let Volk settle into his rhythm, he has a real chance.

I think Volk wins if this goes to the scorecards. His footwork, timing, and fight IQ are still world-class. But I’m not laying -150 on a 37-year-old coming off back-to-back knockout losses. The value is on Lopes by KO/TKO at +330 if you believe the chin is compromised.

• Volkanovski vs Lopes Pick: Diego Lopes by KO/TKO (+330)

Volkanovski vs Lopes Tale of the Tape

Volkanovski has the edge in striking volume and accuracy, landing 6.18 significant strikes per minute compared to Lopes’ 4.10. He’s also better defensively, absorbing fewer strikes and defending takedowns at a higher rate. The main advantage for Lopes is the size. He’s five inches taller with a one-inch reach advantage.

Volkanovski Recent Fights

• Win vs Diego Lopes – Unanimous Decision (April 2025)
• Loss vs Ilia Topuria – KO/TKO (February 2024)
• Loss vs Islam Makhachev – Submission (October 2023)
• Win vs Yair Rodriguez – TKO (July 2023)
• Loss vs Islam Makhachev – Decision (February 2023)

Diego Lopes Recent Fights

• Win vs Jean Silva – KO/TKO (September 2025)
• Loss vs Alexander Volkanovski – Decision (April 2025)
• Win vs Brian Ortega – Submission (February 2025)
• Win vs Dan Ige – Decision (August 2024)
• Win vs Sodiq Yusuff – Submission (June 2024)

How to Watch Volkanovski vs Lopes

UFC 325 streams exclusively on Paramount+ in the United States. The early prelims start at 5 pm ET, prelims at 7 pm ET, and the main card at 9 pm ET. Volkanovski vs Lopes is expected to start around 11:30 pm ET depending on how the earlier fights play out.