Panthers vs Lightning Prediction: Odds, & Lineup Notes (Thursday, Feb. 5)

• I’ve made my Panthers vs Lightning prediction for Thursday’s Sunshine State showdown at Benchmark International Arena
• Tampa Bay has won nine straight at home and 18 of their last 20 games overall
• See my prediction, odds and projected lineups for this Atlantic Division rivalry game below

Matthew Tkachuk didn’t sugarcoat it after Monday’s loss to Buffalo. “We are in trouble right now,” the Panthers winger said after Florida blew a 42-20 shot advantage in a 5-3 defeat.

The two-time defending Stanley Cup champions (29-24-3) need to turn things around fast, but Thursday’s trip to Tampa Bay isn’t the spot to do it. The Lightning (36-14-4) have won nine straight at home and sit atop the Eastern Conference despite missing key centers Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli and Nick Paul.

Puck drop is set for 7:30 PM ET from Benchmark International Arena in Tampa.

Check out my Panthers vs Lightning prediction below, plus the latest odds and projected lineups.

Panthers vs Lightning Prediction

• Over 6 Goals (-115 at bet365)

Florida grabbed a 5-4 shootout win over Boston on Wednesday, but that game showed some real cracks. The Panthers allowed seven power plays, blew a two-goal third period lead, and needed Sergei Bobrovsky to stop three of four shootout attempts just to escape with two points.

Now the Cats hit the road for the back end of a back-to-back, which means backup Daniil Tarasov gets the net. The 25-year-old has been solid with a 2.67 GAA and .904 save percentage, but he’s facing a Tampa offense that ranks second in the league at 3.50 goals per game.

Panthers vs Lightning Key Stats

Tampa Bay has been rolling since Christmas, going 18-1-1 over their last 20 games. But the Lightning haven’t been blowing teams out. Their last two wins both required late heroics from Jake Guentzel, who scored the shootout winner against Boston on Sunday and potted the OT winner with 15 seconds left against Buffalo on Tuesday.

The head-to-head trends point firmly toward goals. The Over has cashed in seven of the last nine meetings in Tampa Bay, and five of the last six overall between these rivals.

Panthers vs Lightning Recent Meetings

Andrei Vasilevskiy has been on a tear over a three-month stretch, posting a 1.77 GAA and .930 save percentage while going 21-2-1 in 24 games. He’s dipped a bit in his last two starts with a sub-.900 save percentage, but Tampa’s offense bailed him out both times.

Florida’s five-on-five underlying numbers look decent over their last 10 games, with a 55.30 CF% and 52.27 xGF%. But they’re converting at just 8.76% and getting burned by poor goaltending, posting an 88.55 SV% at evens. That’s a recipe for goals.

I like the Over 6 goals in a rivalry game where both teams have defensive questions and the recent history favors high-scoring affairs.

Panthers vs Lightning Odds

Odds as of Feb. 5. The interactive table above will automatically update as the NHL odds move throughout the day.

Tampa Bay opened as -180 home favorites and are now as short as -190 depending on where you look. The total sits between 6 and 6.5, with Bet365 offering the best price on Over 6 at -115.

Florida’s underdog price offers value if you believe in the defending champs bouncing back, but the back-to-back situation and goalie mismatch make that a tough sell.

Panthers vs Lightning Projected Lineups

Tampa Bay Lightning Projected Lines

Forwards:

Brandon Hagel – Jake Guentzel – Nikita Kucherov
Oliver Bjorkstrand – Dominic James – Gage Goncalves
Zemgus Girgensons – Yanni Gourde – Pontus Holmberg
Curtis Douglas – Jack Finley – Scott Sabourin

Defense:

J.J. Moser – Darren Raddysh
Ryan McDonagh – Erik Cernak
Victor Hedman – Declan Carlile

Goalie: Andrei Vasilevskiy (confirmed)

The Lightning are banged up down the middle. With Point, Cirelli and Paul all sidelined, coach Jon Cooper has moved winger Jake Guentzel to center. The 30-year-old went 12-for-26 (46.2%) in the faceoff circle against Buffalo, and it’s working. Guentzel has scored the game-winner in each of Tampa’s last two victories.

Nikita Kucherov keeps doing Nikita Kucherov things. After a slow 15-point start through the first 15 games, the Russian winger has exploded for 75 points in his last 35 games, giving him 90 points (29 goals, 61 assists) on the season. Brayden Point skated at the optional morning skate but won’t play and is questionable for the Olympics.

Florida Panthers Projected Lines

Forwards:

Eetu Luostarinen – Anton Lundell – Sam Reinhart
Carter Verhaeghe – Sam Bennett – Matthew Tkachuk
A.J. Greer – Evan Rodrigues – Brad Marchand
Sandis Vilmanis – Cole Schwindt – Mackie Samoskevich

Defense:

Gustav Forsling – Aaron Ekblad
Niko Mikkola – Uvis Balinskis
Donovan Sebrango – Jeff Petry

Goalie: Daniil Tarasov (expected)

The Panthers continue to play without captain Aleksander Barkov (knee), who hasn’t suited up since early October. Brad Marchand is questionable after scoring the shootout winner against Boston on Wednesday, having missed nine of the last 14 games with a lower body injury. Defenseman Tobias Bjornfot left Wednesday’s game in the second period and won’t play.

Anton Lundell has stepped up in Barkov’s absence. The Finnish center had a goal and two assists against Boston, including a short-handed tally. He’s been one of the few bright spots for a Panthers team that’s won just once in their last five games.