UFC Fight Night Picks, Predictions & Odds – Bautista vs Oliveira

• Tonight’s UFC Fight Night is headlined by the Bautista vs Oliveira bantamweight bout
• Oliveira had to cut 30 pounds to make the bantamweight limit
• See my UFC Fight Night picks, predictions and odds for Bautista vs Oliveira

The UFC returns to Las Vegas this weekend for another stacked, 12-fight card. The event is headlined by the Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira bantamweight fight, with Bautista looking to bounce back after his eight-fight winning streak was snapped last time out.

The UFC Fight Night prelims are set to get underway from UFC Apex in Las Vegas, at 2:15 pm PT, 5:15 pm ET on Paramount+, with the Main Card fights starting at 5:15 pm PT, 8:15 pm ET also on Paramount+.

Here are my UFC Fight Night picks, predictions and odds for Bautista vs Oliveira and more.

UFC Fight Night Picks #1: Bautista to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Decision

Make no mistake, Oliveira is the bigger, more talented fighter. He’s got a flare for the dramatic and excels at giving fans what they want: knockouts. Oliveira has finished his opponent in 16 of his 23 victories, and will doing everything in his power to put Bautista away early tonight.

Bautisa on the other hand, is the exact opposite type of fighter. He’s a boring draw, that lacks aggression and is very comfortable lulling opponents to sleep and settling for decisions. The 32-year-old hasn’t finished an opponent in his last five fights, and hasn’t scored a knockout since 2021.

Bautista vs Oliveira Tale of the Tape

Oliveira is going to charge forward relentlessly when he’s fresh, forcing Bautista to play defense. That’s a role Bautista is familiar with, and I’m confident his fight IQ will take over and keep him out of danger. As the fight progresses, Oliveira’s conditioning will likely falter. He had to drop 30 pounds just make weight for this fight, and isn’t exactly known for his engine to begin with.

This is where Bautista can capitalize and slowly pick his opponent apart. I wouldn’t rule out a knockout for him either, as Bautista’s aggression can leave him vulnerable to a well-timed counterstrike. Bautista is too smart to try and trade blows with Oliveira, and will patiently wait him out over 5 rounds and eventually earn a victory.

• UFC Fight Night Predictions: Mario Bautista to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Decision (+115 at DraftKings)

UFC Fight Night Main Card Odds

Odds as of Feb. 6 at DraftKings. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Fight Night on Saturday.

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UFC Fight Night Picks #2: Kyoji Horiguchi to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Decision

For my next selection, I’m backing Kyoji Horiguchi to finish Amir Albazi. The ladder hasn’t competed since getting worked by Brandon Moreno in November of 2024, which followed back-to-back medical setbacks. Albazi’s glory days are behind him, and he simply doesn’t have the power to hurt the Karate Kid.

Horiguchi, meanwhile, is a finishing machine, with 21 finishes in 35 fights. After leaving the UFC 10 years ago, he cleaned up on the international circuit before returning last November. He promptly submitted Tagir Ulanbekov, and has the arsenal to knock his opponent out or make them tap.

• UFC Fight Night Predictions: Kyoji Horiguchi to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Decision (+250 at DraftKings)

UFC Fight Night Picks #3: Bruna Brasil Moneyline

I’ll round out my card with a third plus-money pick, backing Bruna Brasil to upset Ketlen Souza. We shouldn’t expect a finish from either, with the fight pegged at -330 to end by decision, but the women should be priced much closer together. Brasil is the larger fighter, and can wear down Souza with her grappling.

Souza, on the other hand, has dropped back-to-back fights and will try to keep this bout on her feet. She’s the more aggressive striker, but her wild, chaotic style leaves her open to smart counterattacks.

Look for Brasil to be patient and pounce when the opening presents itself. She can score with both her counter striking and her grappling, giving her more avenues to win on the judges’ card.

• UFC Fight Night Predictions: Bruna Brasil Moneyline (+130 at DraftKings)