New Mexico vs Grand Canyon Picks for Heavyweight MWC Tilt

• New Mexico beat Grand Canyon 87-64 on Jan. 13
• Sharp bettors and public consensus are aligned on the Over 149.5
• Freshman standout Jake Hall offers substantial value in the player prop market

New Mexico travels to Phoenix tonight for a pivotal Mountain West showdown against Grand Canyon, hoping to sweep the season series. Tip-off is set for 10 pm, ET (Fox Sports 1).

New Mexico beat Grand Canyon 87-64 on Jan. 13.

New Mexico (18-6, 9-4 MWC) is third in the MWC and is looking to snap a surprising two-game skid. Grand Canyon (15-8, 8-4 MWC) also is seeking redemption after a tough loss at UNLV.

Oddsmakers have made Grand Canyon a slight home favorite.

Our analysis breaks down the key matchups, metrics and trends to provide expert betting advice for New Mexico at Grand Canyon.

New Mexico vs Grand Canyon Best Bets & Predictions

Wednesday’s clash presents a fascinating handicap between two upper-echelon Mountain West teams looking to correct course. Oddsmakers have installed Grand Canyon as a 1.5-point favorite, respecting the home-court advantage despite New Mexico holding superior efficiency metrics and the head-to-head edge this season.

Best Bet: New Mexico Moneyline (+100) at BetMGM

Although the trends favor Grand Canyon bouncing back — the Lopes are 7-0 following a loss this season — the schematic matchup heavily favors the visitors. New Mexico’s path to victory is paved in the paint, specifically through its advantage on the glass. Forward Tomislav Buljan has been a force for the Lobos, leading the team with 9.9 rebounds per game. His ability to limit Grand Canyon to one shot per possession provides a critical edge.

The Lopes rely heavily on Nana Owusu-Anane (8.7 rpg) to control the boards, but New Mexico’s frontcourt depth allows them to neutralize his impact. Furthermore, the Lobos boast one of the conference’s most efficient offenses, led by freshman sensation Jake Hall (15.5 PPG on 47.9% FG shooting). New Mexico has proven resilient on the road (5-3 record), and its +11.5 scoring margin suggests it can dictate terms even in a hostile environment. Back the Lobos to complete the season sweep.

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Over 148.5 Total Points (-110) at Bet365

The consensus total is set at 149.5, but Bet365 is offering it at 148.5. The teams combined for 151 points in Round 1. Statistical profiles point toward another high-scoring affair. Grand Canyon’s offense flows through Jaden Henley, who carries a massive 29.16% Usage Percentage and averages 17.1 points per game. Henley’s aggressive downhill style results in frequent trips to the charity stripe (149 attempts this season), which stops the clock and pads the total even during shooting slumps.

Conversely, New Mexico features a lethal perimeter attack. Jake Hall is knocking down 43.0% of his three-point attempts, providing the spacing necessary to counter Grand Canyon’s interior defense. When combining Henley’s rim pressure with Hall’s elite shooting, the pace should remain frenetic. With New Mexico averaging 81.2 points per game and Grand Canyon conceding 80 points in their recent loss to UNLV, the Over is a strong play.

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Best Player Prop: Jake Hall Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (-110 at BetMGM)

For value in the player prop market, look to New Mexico guard Jake Hall. The freshman has established himself as the premier sharpshooter in this matchup, having drained 74 three-pointers through 24 games.

• Average Makes: 3.08 per game
• Efficiency: 43.0% 3PT shooting
• Volume: 7.17 attempts per game

Hall is one three-pointer shy of the Mountain West freshman single-season record. Given his high volume and the fact that he scored 22 points in the first meeting against the Lopes, expectations are high for him to clear this line. Grand Canyon’s defense struggled to navigate screens in their loss to UNLV, a weakness Hall is equipped to exploit.

Public Betting Data

The college basketball public betting sentiment for Wednesday night’s clash indicates a strong consensus regarding the game total. While spread betting often sees divided action, the splits for the Over/Under suggest the market is confidently anticipating points in Phoenix.

According to the latest data, 70.03% of wagers have been placed on the Over. Crucially, the handle—representing the total amount of money wagered—shows even stronger conviction, with 73% of the stake backing the Over. This alignment between ticket count and money percentage indicates that both casual bettors and larger-volume players are reading the game similarly.

Often, a “sharp vs. public” split (where money opposes tickets) signals a trap, but here the market is moving in unison. This heavy support validates the projection for the Over 149.5, as the collective wisdom of the betting market expects the offensive efficiency of both teams to dictate the tempo.

New Mexico vs Grand Canyon Stats

Strength of Schedule Factor

The RPI rankings validate New Mexico’s record quality. Ranked No. 51, the Lobos have navigated a tougher schedule (0.5375 SOS) than the No. 75 Lopes. Furthermore, New Mexico’s 5-3 road record demonstrates an ability to perform in hostile environments, whereas Grand Canyon has been less consistent against top-tier competition, evidenced by their lower adjusted winning percentage.

New Mexico vs Grand Canyon Odds

Here are the current betting odds for Wednesday’s matchup at Global Credit Union Arena:

• Moneyline: New Mexico +100 | Grand Canyon -121
• Point Spread: New Mexico +1.5 (-113) | Grand Canyon -1.5 (-107)
• Total: Over 149.5 (-112) | Under 149.5 (-108)

Odds as of February 11, 2026, from BetMGM and Consensus Sportsbooks.

The market projects a near coin-flip, with Grand Canyon holding a slight edge due to home-court advantage. The narrow 1.5-point spread reflects two teams separated by just one game in the loss column. The total of 149.5 is relatively high for a conference game, underscoring the respect for New Mexico’s offensive pace.

Based on the moneyline odds, the vig-free implied win probabilities are:

• Grand Canyon Lopes: 52.27%
• New Mexico Lobos: 47.73%

For bettors backing the underdog, a $20 wager on New Mexico at +100 would return a profit of $20.00. Conversely, a $20 bet on the favorite Grand Canyon at -121 would yield a profit of $16.53. Given the statistical advantages in rebounding and shooting efficiency, the even-money return on the Lobos offers the superior value proposition.