USA vs Latvia Prediction, Props, Odds & Start Time for 2026 Olympics Men’s Hockey (Feb. 12)

• Team USA is a massive -4000 moneyline favorite over Latvia in Thursday’s Olympic men’s hockey opener
• Latvia was outscored 15-2 in three games against elite teams at the 2025 World Championship
• I’ve made my USA vs Latvia prediction and picks for Thursday’s Group C matchup below

Team USA begins its quest for a first Olympic gold medal since 1980 on Thursday afternoon against Latvia at Santagiulia Arena. The Americans are loaded with NHL talent, from captain Auston Matthews to Jack Eichel, the Tkachuk brothers and reigning Vezina winner Connor Hellebuyck in net.

Latvia has six NHL players of their own and a defensive-first approach that’s kept them in games at past Olympics. Don’t forget, the Latvians took Canada to the wire in 2014 Sochi and beat the U.S. for bronze at the 2023 World Championship.

Puck drop is 3:10 pm ET on USA Network and Peacock. Here are my USA vs Latvia prediction and picks, plus the latest odds and props.

USA vs Latvia Prediction

• Under 6.5 Goals (-106 at Bet365)

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There’s no way I’m laying -4000 on a moneyline, and the -3.5 spread at -176 juice doesn’t excite me either. My USA vs Latvia prediction is the under 6.5 goals, where I think the value actually lives in this game.

Latvia is going to turtle. They don’t have the firepower to trade chances with the Americans, and they know it. At the 2025 World Championship, Latvia was outscored 15-2 in three games against Sweden, Canada and Finland, never scoring more than once.

Their path to staying in this game runs through structure and goaltending. Arturs Silovs has posted an .896 save percentage in 26 games for the Pittsburgh Penguins this season, while Elvis Merzlikins has turned things around in Columbus. Whichever one gets the nod will face a high volume of shots, but Latvia’s game plan will be to collapse low and limit odd-man rushes.

On the American side, Connor Hellebuyck posted a .932 save percentage at the 4 Nations Face-Off and shouldn’t be tested much. I’m not sure Team USA actually gets to seven goals on their own though. I could see something like 5-1 or 4-0, and Latvia’s limited offense keeps the combined total down even if the Americans dominate territorially.

Historically, the U.S. is 13-2-4 against Latvia all-time with a combined 61-38 in goals scored. That averages out to roughly a 3-2 scoreline, with a “true” total around 5.2 goals. I’ll take under 6.5.

USA vs Latvia Props

Anytime Goalscorer Odds

Odds via Bet365.

Matthews is the only player priced in the minus at -134. The value gets interesting in the middle of the board, where Thompson, Boldy and Brady Tkachuk are all sitting at +140. Further down, Jack Hughes and Dylan Larkin at +190 could benefit from softer even-strength matchups in bottom-six roles. I’m going with two prop picks for this one.

• Matt Boldy Anytime Goal (+140 at Bet365)

Matt Boldy has already scored a career-high 32 goals for the Minnesota Wild this season, and his 1.71 goals per 60 minutes rank sixth in the NHL. He’s starting on Team USA’s top line alongside Auston Matthews and Jake Guentzel, plus he’ll see time on the second power play unit.

That’s a great setup against Latvia, and at +140 I still like the value. He’s also scored twice in five career NHL games against Merzlikins if he ends up being the Latvian starter.

• Tage Thompson Anytime Goal (+140 at Bet365)

Tage Thompson has scored 188 goals over 360 games in his last five NHL seasons. He’s expected to play a middle-six role and join the second power play unit, which gives him favorable even-strength matchups against Latvia’s weaker bottom-six.

Thompson also has five goals in three career NHL games against Elvis Merzlikins. If Merzlikins gets the start, Thompson is my favorite play on the board.

USA vs Latvia Odds

Odds as of Feb. 12 via Bet365. Check out SBD’s Bet365 promo code to bet on the 2026 Winter Olympics.

Team USA’s -4000 moneyline is essentially unbettable. You’d need to wager $4,000 just to win $100. Latvia’s +1700 gives them about a 6% implied probability, which feels generous given the talent gap.

The puck line is set at 3.5, with the U.S. at -176 and Latvia at +145. If you want action on the American side, that’s the route, but the juice is steep. The total sits at 6.5 goals with the under slightly favored at -106, which is where my pick lands.

USA vs Latvia Start Time

Puck drop is set for 3:10 pm ET from the Santagiulia Arena in Milan, Italy. The game airs on USA Network and streams on Peacock. NHL players are back in the Olympics for the first time since 2014 Sochi, and this is Team USA’s first game of the tournament.