UCLA vs Michigan Best Bets & Predictions on CBS

• #2 Michigan is a 15.5-point favorite over UCLA in Big Ten hoops action today
• The Wolverines own a nation-best +22 average score margin
• See my UCLA vs Michigan best bets and predictions for today’s showdown on CBS

The #2 Michigan Wolverines (23-1, 13-1 Big Ten) puts their nine-game win streak on the line today when they welcome the UCLA Bruins (17-7, 9-4 Big Ten) to Ann Arbor. Online sportsbooks are siding with the Wolverines as big home favorites in the latest college basketball odds, but I’m going to make the argument that they haven’t made the line high enough.

The action gets underway at 12:45 pm ET from Crisler Center, in Ann Arbor, MI, a building where the Wolverines are 11-1 this season.

Here are my UCLA vs Michigan best bets and predictions for today’s showdown on CBS.

UCLA vs Michigan Best Bets and Predictions

ATS Pick: Michigan -15.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

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The Wolverines have a plethora of NBA talent, depth, size and the best defense in college basketball. They’re also extremely well coached and the favorites in the NCAA Tournament champion odds. It’s not a question of if they’re going to be beat the Bruins today, it’s a question of by how much.

It’s not that UCLA is a bad team, it’s just that Michigan is on a whole other level. Everything the Bruins do well, the Wolverines have an answer for, while all of UCLA’s glaring weaknesses are about to get exposed by Michigan.

Let’s start with the offensive matchup for the Wolverines. Michigan is patient and will swing the ball around until they get the matchup they like. Often that’s the ball in the hands of either Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara or Morez Johnson Jr. in the front court.

There isn’t a single defender on the Bruins capable of shutting down one of those future NBA’ers let alone three, but even if the trio is cold the Wolverines get plenty of production from their guards and their bench.

Michigan enters play averaging over 90 points per game. They shoot a ridiculous 51% from the floor, and have six rotational players who shoot at least 36% from 3. They can score inside and out, but their biggest advantage comes on the glass.

The Wolverines are one of the best rebounding teams in the country and they crash the offensive glass hard. That’s a nightmare for UCLA, who is not only one of the worst rebounding teams in the Big Ten, but the nation as well. Michigan’s ability to generate second chance points is going to help them easily build margin in this matchup, as will their defensive prowess.

Key Statistical Metrics: UCLA vs Michigan

The Wolverines are absolutely suffocating at the other end of the floor. They allow enemy shooters to average just 37% from the floor and 29% from beyond the arc. Michigan doesn’t force a ton of turnovers, but they block a ton of shots and force bad attempts, driving opponent coaches crazy.

As for the UCLA offense, not a single one of their top-five would start for the Wolverines. Leading scorer Tyler Bilodeau would get minutes, but he’d take a backseat to the Wolverines elite trio of front court talent. The Bruins don’t shoot the ball particularly well, and they spent way too much time playing inside the arc. They don’t have the ingredients to beat Michigan in the interior, and don’t shoot enough threes to threaten them from deep.

The other concern for UCLA is deciding what kind of tempo they want to run. They’ll likely opt to slow things down and limit possessions, but the problem with that is their roster is more suited to play fast. No matter which they choose, Michigan will have an answer and I expect the Wolverines to run the Bruins right out of the gym. The Wolverines enter play with a +22 average score margin this season, and are outscoring their opponents by more than 27 points at home.

Player Prop Pick: Aday Mara Over 10.5 Points (-114 at FanDuel)

In addition to betting Michigan -15.5, I’m also wagering on over 10.5 points for Mara. The former UCLA center is shooting 66% from the floor this season, with the bulk of the damage coming in tight. He’ll have a major size advantage in this matchup, and his rebounding prowess should lead to some easy putbacks.

The 7-footer is averaging over 7 boards per contest, and is fresh off back-to-back games with double-digit shot attempts. He’s put up at least 10 shots in three of his past four games overall, and has cleared 10.5 points in seven of his past nine starts.