2026 Daytona 500 Kalshi Predictions: Odds, Picks, and Best Trades

• Prediction markets like Kalshi are offering win odds for the 2026 Daytona 500 on Sunday
• Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney lead the Kalshi market at 8% implied probability each
• Read below for Daytona 500 Kalshi predictions, odds, and longshot picks

The 68th running of the Daytona 500 goes down Sunday at 1:30 p.m. ET on FOX. Beyond traditional sportsbooks, you can now trade on who wins the Great American Race through Kalshi and other prediction markets.

Kalshi lets you buy “Yes” or “No” shares on whether a specific driver wins, priced between 1 and 99 cents based on implied probability. If your pick wins, each share pays $1. You can also sell mid-race as prices shift — a trading element you won’t find at a standard sportsbook.

Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney lead the Kalshi board at 8% implied probability each, with Chase Elliott and Kyle Busch right behind at 7%. FanDuel has Logano at +1000 and Blaney at +1100 for comparison, while DraftKings lists Denny Hamlin as its favorite at +900. With Daytona’s pack racing and the threat of “The Big One,” even the top favorites carry single-digit win probabilities, creating real opportunity for traders.

The full Kalshi board is below, followed by our predictions and longshot picks.

2026 Daytona 500 Kalshi Odds

*Kalshi odds as of Feb. 14, 2026. Kalshi is legal in all 50 states. Start trading with the Kalshi referral code

Logano and Blaney sit at 8 cents per share, meaning a $10 investment returns $125 if either takes the checkered flag. Compare that to FanDuel where Logano is +1000, giving you $100 on that same $10.

The prediction market offers slightly better value at the top of the board, plus the ability to sell your shares mid-race if your driver is running up front.

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How Kalshi Works for the Daytona 500

When you find a driver you want to back on Kalshi, you buy “Yes” shares at the listed price. If Logano is trading at 8 cents, you pay 8 cents per share. If he wins, each share pays $1. If he doesn’t, you lose your 8 cents.

The trading angle is what separates Kalshi from traditional betting. Say you bought Logano shares at 8 cents before the race. If he’s leading with 50 laps to go and his price climbs to 25 cents, you can sell and lock in profit without waiting for the result. That flexibility matters on a superspeedway where anything can happen in the final laps.

Over the last eight Daytona races, no driver has spent more time up front than Logano — 57.69% of his laps inside the top 10 and 13.36% leading the field. That front-running presence will likely push his share price up during the race, creating a selling opportunity even if he doesn’t win.

Daytona 500 Predictions: Kalshi Favorites

The three Team Penske Fords have earned the “favorite” label for good reason. Logano, Blaney, and Cindric work well together in the draft and are frequently up front in the closing laps. Penske won two of six superspeedway races last season, including Blaney taking the summer Daytona event.

Blaney has never won the 500 but has taken the summer race here twice and is a three-time Talladega winner. He’s arguably the best superspeedway racer in the Cup Series, and Kalshi has him priced identically to Logano despite a stronger drafting resume. That makes him the top value among the favorites.

Kyle Busch starts from the pole after Wednesday’s qualifying and trades at 7 cents on Kalshi. Starting up front matters here, though the race ultimately comes down to surviving 200 laps of pack racing and being in the right spot on the final restart.

William Byron is chasing a three-peat after winning the last two Daytona 500s. He’s won here three times overall and owns the best average finish among full-time drivers on drafting tracks over 18 races dating back to February 2023.

Byron is dangerous, but I still give Blaney the edge because of Penske’s drafting partnership and the fact that Blaney is always in the mix on the final lap.

• 2026 Daytona 500 Prediction to Win: Ryan Blaney (8% / 8¢ per share on Kalshi)

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Daytona 500 Kalshi Longshot Picks

Daytona is the best race on the calendar for longshots. From 2021 to 2023, the winner went off at 40-1 or longer three straight years. With roughly 40-45% of the field typically failing to finish on the lead lap, a surviving mid-pack car can end up in victory lane.

Daytona 500 Kalshi Longshot Odds

The RFK Racing camp is a prime target for Daytona longshot plays. Buescher, Keselowski, and Preece run aggressively at the front on superspeedways, and that’s where you need to be in this Next Gen era to maximize win chances.

Buescher has finished top 10 in five of the last eight Daytona races and owns the second-best average running position here behind only Logano. He also has both a win and a runner-up at the track. A $10 play on Buescher at 4 cents returns $250.

Preece is coming off a Clash victory and proved his No. 60 Ford was one of the fastest cars on track, leading 38 laps in his Duel race. With RFK’s teamwork and aggressive style, he could easily find himself up front when it counts. He trades at 4 cents on Kalshi.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is a former Daytona 500 winner (2023) with four career superspeedway victories. He races with a “checkers or wreckers” mentality that either puts him in contention or takes him out entirely. Chevy has won three of the last four Daytona 500s, and Stenhouse remains one of the best drafters on that side of the garage. A $10 position at 3 cents pays $333.

Todd Gilliland is another name I like at 2 cents. The Front Row Motorsports driver has led multiple laps in 50% of the past 12 drafting races, including a race-high 58 laps at EchoPark Speedway in 2024. He just needs to avoid “The Big One” and he’ll be right there. A $10 trade returns $500.

Josh Berry drives the No. 21 Wood Brothers car that functions as the fourth Penske entry, drafting with Logano, Blaney, and Cindric. Trading at 2 cents, Berry carries massive upside with Team Penske’s drafting muscle behind him.

Daytona 500 Longshot Picks:

• Chris Buescher (4% / 4¢ per share on Kalshi)
• Ryan Preece (4% / 4¢ per share on Kalshi)
• Todd Gilliland (2% / 2¢ per share on Kalshi)

KALSHI TRADING

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T&Cs

Trade at Kalshi & Get a $10 bonus when you sign up today!

Must be 18+ years or older & residing in the United States. Other Terms & Conditions may apply.

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: DIME

CODE: DIME

SIGNUP TODAY

GET A $10
BONUS

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How to Watch the 2026 Daytona 500

The 2026 Daytona 500 will be broadcast live on FOX this Sunday, February 15, with coverage beginning at 2:30 p.m. ET from Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, FL.

Meteorologists are calling for cloud cover on a 77-degree Sunday with an elevated chance of rain after 7:00 p.m. ET. Both qualifying race winners, Logano and Chase Elliott, said they expected slick conditions and hard-to-handle cars, making survival an even bigger factor than usual.