USA vs Sweden Prediction, Picks & Odds for Olympic Hockey Quarterfinal (Feb. 18)

• The USA is a -260 moneyline favorite over Sweden in Wednesday’s Olympic quarterfinal
• Sweden has won three of four in Milan and hasn’t lost to the USA at the Olympics since 1960
• See my USA vs Sweden prediction and picks below, plus the latest odds for Wednesday’s quarterfinal

This is the matchup nobody expected this early. The second-seeded United States (3-0-0) takes on seventh-seeded Sweden (3-0-1) in Wednesday’s Olympic quarterfinal, with the loser going home without a medal of any color.

Both rosters are stacked with NHL talent from top to bottom, making this feel more like a semifinal than a quarterfinal. Online sportsbooks have the Americans as sizeable favorites in the Olympic hockey quarterfinal odds, but Sweden’s recent surge makes this anything but a sure thing.

Puck drop is set for 3:10 pm ET from Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan. Keep reading for my USA vs Sweden prediction and picks, plus the latest odds for Wednesday’s quarterfinal.

USA vs Sweden Prediction and Picks

• Under 6.5 Goals (-150 at Caesars)

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The USA moneyline at -260 is too steep for my blood against a Swedish roster that’s finally clicking. But Sweden’s goaltending uncertainty keeps me off their side too, so my USA vs Sweden prediction lands on the total instead.

I’m going under 6.5 goals. This is a win-or-go-home elimination game between two of the deepest defensive groups in the tournament. The USA boasts Quinn Hughes, Zach Werenski, Jake Sanderson, Jaccob Slavin and Brock Faber on the blue line. Sweden counters with Gustav Forsling, Rasmus Dahlin, Erik Karlsson and Victor Hedman. Good luck finding clean looks against either backend.

USA vs Sweden Tournament Stats

Connor Hellebuyck has been outstanding in net for the Americans, posting a .952 save percentage and allowing just two goals across his two starts. He hasn’t been truly tested yet, but the three-time Vezina Trophy winner is the kind of goalie who thrives in high-pressure, low-margin games like this one.

Sweden’s goaltending is murkier. Jacob Markstrom took over the starting role after Filip Gustavsson struggled to an .889 save percentage in his first two games. Markstrom was solid against Latvia on Tuesday, stopping 20 of 21 shots, but he’ll be playing on back-to-back days against a significantly better opponent.

Coach Sam Hallam has kept his starter under wraps, and Jesper Wallstedt is also an option, though throwing a 23-year-old rookie into this spot would be a bold move.

Regardless of who starts, the game script leans toward low scoring. Both teams have slow-starting tendencies. The USA trailed Denmark after one period and was scoreless against Germany until late in the first, while Sweden was held off the board for the opening 10 minutes against Latvia before breaking through.

Elimination games at this level are tight, structured affairs, and Sweden especially can’t afford to trade chances with the deeper American attack. We saw that firsthand at last year’s 4 Nations Face-Off — Sweden won that game 2-1, with Samuel Ersson stopping 32 of 33 shots in a defensive grind. I’ll pay the -150 juice on under 6.5.

Additional USA vs Sweden Best Bet

• 1st Period Both Teams to Score: No (-195 at Caesars)

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My additional USA vs Sweden pick ties directly into the under thesis. The Americans have been notoriously slow starters, trailing 2-1 after one against Denmark and going scoreless against Germany until the final seconds of the opening frame.

In a best-on-best elimination game, both teams will play it cautious early. A 0-0 or 1-0 first period is very much in play here, and Sweden will want to keep things tight and avoid giving the Americans any early momentum.

Yes, -195 is steep. Bettors love hammering first-period goals, which is exactly why this line is juiced so hard. But the public tendency to bet early action is what creates value on the other side. I’ll gladly fade the crowd in an elimination game between two defensively elite teams.

USA vs Sweden Odds

The -260 moneyline on USA is steep for a quarterfinal against a team this talented. You’d need to risk $260 to profit just $100. If you like the Americans, the puck line at -1.5 (+100) offers far better value — you’re getting even money that the USA wins by two or more.

The USA vs Sweden odds have Sweden at +210 on the moneyline, which deserves a look if you believe the Swedes have been playing possum. They’ve won three of four in Milan, haven’t lost to the USA at the Olympics since 1960, and Lucas Raymond has been one of the tournament’s best players with eight points in four games.

The 60-minute three-way line is also worth noting: USA at -165, Sweden at +340, and the draw at +330. If you think the Americans win but want to avoid the moneyline price, that regulation line trims things down nicely.

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Odds as of Feb. 17 at Caesars. Check out SBD’s Caesars Sportsbook review to see the available sign-up bonuses.

USA vs Sweden How to Watch

Here’s how to watch USA vs Sweden on Wednesday. Puck drop is set for 3:10 pm ET (12:10 pm PT) from Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy. In the United States, the game airs on USA Network and streams on Peacock. Canadian viewers can tune in on CBC, SN or TSN.

The winner advances to the semifinal on Friday.