Canada vs Finland Prediction, Best Bets, Lineups & Start Time for Olympic Hockey Semifinal (Feb. 20)

• I’ve made my Canada vs Finland prediction for Friday’s Olympic men’s hockey semifinal in Milan
• Both teams needed overtime to survive the quarterfinals, with Sidney Crosby’s status uncertain after a lower-body injury
• See my Canada vs Finland prediction and best bets below, plus projected lineups and start time for Friday’s semifinal

Top-seeded Canada (4-0) takes on Finland (3-1) Friday morning in Milan with a trip to the gold medal game on the line. Both teams needed overtime to survive the quarterfinals, and online sportsbooks have the Canadians as heavy favorites with the total set at 5.5.

Puck drop is 10:40 am ET from Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena. Here’s my Canada vs Finland prediction and best bets, plus projected lineups and start time for Friday’s semifinal.

Canada vs Finland Prediction

• Under 5.5 Goals (-110 at FanDuel)

Canada has the deepest roster in the tournament, but they barely escaped Czechia 4-3 in OT after blowing a lead and nearly getting bounced in the quarters. Finland rallied from two goals down with under seven minutes left against Switzerland before Artturi Lehkonen won it in overtime. Neither team looked comfortable, and the margin for error only gets thinner from here.

My Canada vs Finland prediction is under 5.5 goals. While the quarterfinals produced some chaos, the context matters. Canada’s 4-3 game against Czechia was driven by individual brilliance from David Pastrnak and Martin Necas, not systematic breakdowns.

The 4 Nations Face-Off meeting last year also went sideways late, with Finland storming back from 4-0 down to make it 4-3. But that was a round-robin game with nothing on the line. Semifinal hockey is a different animal, and Finland will be far more disciplined in a win-or-go-home setting.

The goaltending matchup supports the under too. Juuse Saros has been one of the best netminders in the tournament, posting a .938 save percentage across four starts with a 1.49 GAA.

Jordan Binnington has elevated his game on the international stage once again, carrying a .922 save percentage in three Olympic starts. He came up massive against Czechia, stoning Necas on a breakaway late and stopping a dangerous chance from Radim Simek in overtime.

Finland will follow the Czechia blueprint: clog the neutral zone, force dump-ins, and pack the slot with bodies. Lundell’s checking line has experience going head-to-head with McDavid from their time in Florida, and Heiskanen is averaging over 26 minutes a night anchoring Finland’s back end. I’m expecting a 3-1 or 3-2 type game Friday.

Canada vs Finland Best Bets

• Finland +2.5 (-140 at Bet365)

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My Canada vs Finland best bet is Finland +2.5. Laying two and a half goals in a one-game semifinal between two NHL-stacked rosters is aggressive, especially with the total shaded toward the under. You’re essentially betting that semifinal hockey stays competitive, which it almost always does.

Canada’s quarterfinal exposed some real vulnerabilities. The bottom six hasn’t produced much, and the defensive pairings outside of Toews and Makar looked shaky under pressure. Sidney Crosby’s status is also uncertain after leaving Wednesday’s game with a lower-body injury. Coach Jon Cooper hasn’t ruled him out, but losing your captain changes the complexion.

Finland has the personnel to keep this close. Lundell, Eetu Luostarinen, and Niko Mikkola all play for the Panthers and have more experience defending McDavid than just about anyone in the league. Hard-matching that checking line against McDavid’s unit could put extra pressure on Canada’s depth to produce.

The Finns have firepower of their own. Aho has three goals, Lehkonen leads the team with five points, and Rantanen has four assists. Finland just needs to avoid losing by three, which feels very doable against a Canadian team that hasn’t blown anyone out since the group stage.

Canada vs Finland Projected Lineups

Team Canada Projected Lines

Forwards:

Macklin Celebrini – Connor McDavid – Nathan MacKinnon
Mitch Marner – Nick Suzuki – Mark Stone
Brandon Hagel – Bo Horvat – Seth Jarvis
Brad Marchand – Sam Bennett – Sam Reinhart

Defense:

Devon Toews – Cale Makar
Josh Morrissey – Colton Parayko
Thomas Harley – Drew Doughty
Tom Wilson – Shea Theodore

Goalie: Jordan Binnington

Binnington has been rock solid on the international stage, going 3-0 with a .922 save percentage in Olympic play. His rebound control has been the one nitpick, but he’s made the big saves when it matters. With Crosby’s status uncertain, Suzuki is expected to slot in between Marner and Stone on the second line.

Team Finland Projected Lines

Forwards:

Mikael Granlund – Roope Hintz – Mikko Rantanen
Artturi Lehkonen – Sebastian Aho – Teuvo Teravainen
Eetu Luostarinen – Anton Lundell – Kaapo Kakko
Eeli Tolvanen – Erik Haula – Joel Armia

Defense:

Miro Heiskanen – Esa Lindell
Niko Mikkola – Rasmus Ristolainen
Olli Maatta – Nikolas Matinpalo
Joel Kiviranta – Henri Jokiharju

Goalie: Juuse Saros

Saros has been outstanding, stopping 91 of 97 shots across four starts for a .938 save percentage and 1.49 GAA. Finland’s defensive structure in front of him has been stingy too, with Heiskanen logging huge minutes and the Mikkola-Ristolainen pair providing a physical presence that can make life miserable in front of the net.

Canada vs Finland Start Time

Puck drop for the Canada vs Finland semifinal is 10:40 am ET (7:40 am PT) Friday from Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy. The game airs on USA Network and streams on Peacock in the United States. Canadian viewers can watch on CBC, CBC Gem, and Sportsnet.

The winner faces either the United States or Slovakia in Sunday’s gold medal game at 8:10 am ET, while the loser plays for bronze Saturday at 2:40 pm ET.