USA vs Slovakia Prediction, Picks & Latest Odds for Olympic Hockey Semifinal (Feb. 20)

• I’ve made my USA vs Slovakia prediction for Friday’s Olympic men’s hockey semifinal
• The Americans are massive -800 moneyline favorites, with the total set at 6.0 at Caesars
• See my USA vs Slovakia prediction, picks and latest odds below for Friday’s semifinal

Team USA (4-0) faces Slovakia (4-1) Friday afternoon with a trip to the gold medal game at stake. The Americans are massive -800 moneyline favorites at Caesars, and for good reason. This is the deepest, most defensively dominant team in the tournament.

Slovakia has been the Cinderella story of the Olympics, upsetting Finland in the opener and cruising past Germany 6-2 in the quarters. But the Americans are an entirely different challenge, and the Slovaks only have seven NHL skaters on their roster.

Puck drop is 3:10 pm ET from Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena. Here’s my USA vs Slovakia prediction, picks and latest odds for Friday’s semifinal.

USA vs Slovakia Prediction

• Under 6.0 Goals (-120 at Caesars)

CAESARS SPORTSBOOK

Get a Bet Match Up To $250 When You Place Your First Bet!

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD250BM

CODE: SBD250BM

SIGNUP PROMO

BET MATCH
UP TO $250

CLAIM OFFER

My USA vs Slovakia prediction is under 6.0 goals. The USA moneyline is dead at -800 and laying juice on the Americans at -2.5 in an elimination game is risky, so the total is where I see the cleanest value.

This USA team is built to win low-event, tight-checking games. GM Bill Guerin passed on pure scorers like Jason Robertson and Cole Caufield in favor of a roster that could suffocate opponents, and that approach has paid off. The Americans have allowed just 1.5 goals per game across the tournament and the 4 Nations Face-Off combined.

Connor Hellebuyck has been a wall, posting a tournament-best .958 save percentage in three starts. He stopped 28 of 29 shots against Sweden in the quarterfinal and has allowed just three goals total in Olympic play.

The American blue line is the biggest factor here. Quinn Hughes, Zach Werenski, Jake Sanderson, Jaccob Slavin, and Charlie McAvoy give the USA an elite defensive corps that suppresses slot chances at a ridiculous rate. They’ve generated 95 slot shots while conceding just 38, good for a tournament-leading 71.4% share.

Slovakia’s offense lags well behind, earning just 53.4% of slot shots, the lowest mark among the final four. Their attack runs heavily through Juraj Slafkovsky and Dalibor Dvorsky, and while both have been excellent, asking them to carry the load against this defensive group is a tall order.

Samuel Hlavaj has been a revelation in net for Slovakia, posting a .932 save percentage. But it’s worth remembering his AHL track record is subpar and he’s made ECHL appearances in consecutive seasons. Facing a deep American lineup is his toughest test yet. I’m modeling a 3-1 or 4-1 type final here.

USA vs Slovakia Picks

• Slovakia +2.5 (+115 at Caesars)

I get the temptation to lay the -2.5 with the Americans here. They’ve scored at least five goals in three of four games and the slot shot numbers are overwhelming. But laying 2.5 goals in an elimination semifinal still makes me uneasy, even with this talent gap.

Slovakia has scored at least twice in every game this tournament, including against quality opponents like Finland and Sweden. Slafkovsky has seven points and has been an absolute force, averaging five shots per game. He’s one of those players who can put a team on his back when it matters most.

The quarterfinal showed the Americans aren’t immune to tight games. They needed overtime against Sweden despite dominating possession, and their five-on-five offense went quiet for long stretches. If Slovakia can stay disciplined and Hlavaj keeps making saves, this could easily land in 4-2 or 3-1 territory where the +2.5 cashes comfortably.

I’d also keep an eye on the alternate puck line at Caesars. Slovakia +3.0 is available at -145 if you want the extra cushion, which honestly might be the safer play given how unpredictable elimination games can be.

USA vs Slovakia Odds

Odds as of Feb. 20 at Caesars Sportsbook.

The USA moneyline has ballooned to -800, making it a non-starter for bettors. Slovakia is +550 to pull off the upset, but the real action is on the puck line and total. Caesars has the total at 6.0 with the under juiced to -120, while the puck line sits at USA -2.5 (-135).

If you want to play the alternate lines, Caesars has Slovakia +3.0 at -145 for extra insurance, or you can grab USA -1.5 at -270 if you just want the Americans to win by two. The 60-minute three-way line is also worth a look: USA -450, draw +550, Slovakia +800.

USA vs Slovakia Start Time

Puck drop for the USA vs Slovakia semifinal is 3:10 pm ET (12:10 pm PT) Friday from Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy. The game airs on NBC and streams on Peacock. Canadian viewers can watch on CBC, CBC Gem, and TSN.

The winner advances to Sunday’s gold medal game at 8:10 am ET, while the loser drops to Saturday’s bronze medal game at 2:40 pm ET.