Ohio State vs Michigan State Prediction, Odds & Spread (Feb 22)

• Bruce Thornton’s 19.9 PPG and 36.2 MPG usage rate underpin the value on Ohio State covering the +10.5 spread
• Michigan State’s defense, allowing just 66.4 points per game, supports a contrarian play on the Under 146.5
• See my best Ohio State vs Michigan State picks and predictions, plus the odds and betting splits

Big Ten action intensifies on Sunday afternoon as the No. 15 Michigan State Spartans (21-5, 11-4 Big Ten, 13-2 home, 12-12-2 ATS) host the Ohio State Buckeyes (17-9, 9-6 Big Ten, 4-4 away, 11-14-1 ATS) in East Lansing. Tip-off is set for 1:00 pm ET on February 22 at the Breslin Center with national coverage on CBS.

Michigan State enters with a formidable 13-2 home record and sits fifth in the stacked conference, vying for a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament. Ohio State finds itself on the NCAA Tournament bubble, desperate for a resume-building Quad 1 victory after alternating wins and losses over its last nine games. Guard John Mobley Jr (15.1 PPG), the Buckeyes’ second-leading scorer, could return from a hand injury today but remains a game-time decision.

Below, I have set out my top Ohio State vs Michigan State pick, plus the latest odds and betting splits.

Ohio State vs Michigan State Picks, Predictions & Best Bets

Spread Pick: Ohio State Buckeyes +10.5 (-114 at FanDuel)

The spread has ballooned to 10.5, creating significant value on the road team. While Michigan State boasts a superior net rating (+12.5 scoring margin vs Ohio State’s +7.8), covering a double-digit line against a desperate conference opponent – one that sits in the top 40 at KenPom – is statistically improbable.

The Buckeyes possess a distinct equalizer in Bruce Thornton, who recently surpassed 2,000 career points and moved into third on Ohio State’s all-time scoring list.

Thornton is averaging 19.9 points per game (fifth in the Big Ten) while logging 36.2 minutes per night. His high usage rate ensures he controls the majority of possessions, reducing the variance that leads to blowouts. In hostile environments, a high-usage guard who protects the ball (3.9 APG, 2.83 assist-to-turnover ratio) is critical for covering the number.

Without Mobley, the offense will run exclusively through Thornton and forward Devin Royal (14.0 PPG), condensing the rotation and keeping the game pace manageable.

Total Prediction: Under 146.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Michigan State allows just 66.4 points per contest, relying on interior defenders Carson Cooper (7.2 RPG, 1.04 BPG) and Jaxon Kohler (0.81 BPG) to deter rim attempts. Ohio State’s implied team total sits at a modest 67.5 points. Potentially missing Mobley’s perimeter shooting (40% from three), the Buckeyes will be forced to attack the interior where Michigan State excels.

The line has dropped from an opening number of 148.5 to 146.5 despite 72.07% of tickets and 61.18% of the money landing on the Over — classic reverse line movement indicating sharp action on the Under. If the Spartans control the lead, they will slow the tempo and limit total possessions.

OSU vs MSU Public-Betting Trends

Spread Trends

Ohio State commands 60.87% of spread bets and 59.59% of the handle, suggesting the public views 10.5 points as too rich for a conference rivalry game.

Total Trends

The over is attracting 72.07% of tickets and 61.18% of the money in Sunday’s college basketball public betting trends, yet the line has dropped two full points – a sharp-side indicator favoring the under.

Moneyline Trends

Michigan State accounts for 95.28% of moneyline tickets and 85.73% of the handle. The market views this as a comfortable Spartans win but a closer game than the spread implies.

Ohio State vs Michigan State H2H Stats Comparison

The matchup features two elite floor generals with contrasting styles. Jeremy Fears Jr leads the Big Ten averaging 9.3 assists per game and a 4.38 assist-to-turnover ratio, orchestrating an efficient offense that distributes to shooters.

Thornton operates more as a scoring guard. For Ohio State to cover, Thornton must match Fears’ efficiency while carrying a significantly heavier scoring load.

Ohio State vs Michigan State Odds

Sportsbooks have positioned Michigan State as a prohibitive favorite in Sunday’s college basketball odds, listed at -500 to win (BetMGM), with Ohio State at +450 (FanDuel).

Implied Win Probabilities

• Michigan State: 79.8% Win Probability
• Ohio State: 20.2% Win Probability

Betting Value and Payouts

A $20 wager on Michigan State (-500) returns a mere $4.00 profit, necessitating an 83% win rate to break even long-term. The same $20 wager on Ohio State (+450) yields $90.00 in profit, though the statistical projection favors taking the points rather than the outright upset.

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