Houston vs Kansas Picks, Predictions & How to Watch Top-20 Showdown (Feb 23)

• Kansas is 40-0 in “Big Monday” home games under Bill Self
• Public money has flooded in on the visitors, with over 80% of the handle backing Houston
• Our betting model identifies the home underdog and the Under

Two Big 12 heavyweights looking to snap uncharacteristic losing skids collide tonight as No. 5 Houston visits No. 14 Kansas. Tip-off is set for 9 pm, ET (ESPN).

Houston (23-4, 11-3 Big 12) is a consensus 2.5-point road favorite despite dropping its last two contests to then-No. 6 Iowa State and then-No. 4 Arizona.

Kansas (20-7, 10-4 Big 12) is coming off a shocking home loss to Cincinnati while dealing with the enigma that is Darryn Peterson. The Jayhawks, who are 40-0 in Big Monday home games under Bill Self, will look to leverage the hostility of Allen Fieldhouse as rare home underdogs.

We break down the odds and identify where the betting value lies for Houston at Kansas.

Houston vs Kansas Best Bets & Expert Prediction

Houston’s two-game slide exposes potential vulnerabilities, particularly when traveling to Lawrence to face a squad desperate to avoid back-to-back home losses for the first time since 1989.

The oddsmakers have installed Houston as short road favorites, but the value lies with the home team in a game likely defined by defensive intensity and interior denial.

The Spread: Kansas +2.5 (-110 at Bet365)

We are backing the Jayhawks to cover the spread, and they offer significant value on the consensus moneyline at +127 as well. Beyond the venue, the key differentiator in this matchup is the interior presence of Flory Bidunga. The Kansas forward leads the Big 12 in field goal percentage (66.4%) and, more critically for this defensive battle, averages a conference-leading 2.78 blocks per game.

Houston relies heavily on physical play and offensive rebounding, but the Cougars might struggle to finish at the rim against Bidunga’s verticality. Furthermore, Houston’s frontcourt is prone to foul trouble; Joseph Tugler has committed a team-high 85 personal fouls this season, while Emanuel Sharp has added 77. If Kansas can attack the paint and force Houston’s aggressors to the bench, the Jayhawks will control the tempo down the stretch.

Historical trends strongly support this angle: Bill Self is a perfect 40-0 in “Big Monday” games at Allen Fieldhouse. Betting against that level of historical dominance, especially when the public is heavily skewed the other way, is a losing proposition long-term.

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The Total: Under 138.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

In a clash of top-10 titans, expect possession to be valued at a premium. The Under is the strongest play on the board here. Both teams possess elite rim protection that forces opponents deep into the shot clock, reducing the total number of possessions.

Houston has topped 67 points just one time in its past four games — and failed in both recent losses.

• Kansas Defense: Anchored by Bidunga (75 total blocks), Kansas forces teams into low-percentage mid-range jumpers rather than allowing easy looks at the cup.
• Houston Defense: The Cougars are relentless in the passing lanes. Kingston Flemings averages 1.59 steals per game, disrupting offensive flow before sets can even develop.
• Rebounding: Offensive rebounds keep the clock moving without necessarily resulting in points. Kansas’ Bidunga (81 offensive boards) and Houston’s Chris Cenac Jr. (59 offensive boards) will likely turn missed shots into clock-churning second possessions rather than quick transition buckets.

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Best Player Prop: Emanuel Sharp Over 15.5 Points (-115 at FanDuel)

While we anticipate a defensive grind, Houston guard Emanuel Sharp is the one player likely to transcend the low-scoring narrative. Sharp is the highest-volume shooter in this matchup, averaging 16.4 points per game on a massive 12.2 field goal attempts per contest.

Sharp is also an elite free-throw shooter, hitting 87.6% from the charity stripe. in what projects to be a tight, one-possession game late, Houston will want the ball in his hands. Those closing free throws could easily push him over his scoring prop even if his field goal percentage dips slightly.

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Public Betting Splits

The college basketball public betting action for Monday night’s showdown reveals a heavily one-sided market, with the public and larger wagers firmly aligning behind the road favorite. This creates a classic “fade the public” scenario.

Spread & Moneyline Trends

Despite Allen Fieldhouse’s reputation as a fortress, bettors are overwhelmingly fading the home team following their loss to Cincinnati. The latest splits indicate a massive surge of confidence in Houston.

• Spread: The Cougars are commanding 62.17% of the betting tickets on the spread. Even more telling is the handle, with 80.23% of the money backing Houston to cover the number on the road.
• Moneyline: The sentiment is nearly identical on the moneyline, where Houston is attracting 73.7% of the bets and a staggering 81.26% of the cash.

This creates a distinct contrarian opportunity for our Kansas +2.5 and Kansas Moneyline picks. With the Jayhawks holding just 18.74% of the moneyline stake and 19.77% of the spread stake, backing Kansas means sitting alone on an island against the vast majority of the market—often a profitable place to be in college basketball.

Total Trends

The public expectation for this game contradicts our forecast for a defensive grind. The consensus is clearly looking for points, likely influenced by the star power on both rosters rather than the defensive metrics.

• The Over: Currently receiving 75% of the bets and 76.05% of the money.
• The Under: Seeing just 23.95% of the handle.

Our recommendation on the Under puts us in direct opposition to the public consensus once again, fading the popular perception of a high-scoring affair in favor of a physical, possession-focused battle.

Houston vs Kansas Team Stats Comparison

The RPI and Schedule Factor: While Houston boasts a superior win-loss record, the RPI metrics paint a different picture. Kansas ranks #5 nationally in RPI compared to Houston at #8, largely due to a significantly tougher Strength of Schedule (0.6127 vs. 0.5696). The Jayhawks have proven they can handle elite competition, holding a winning record (5-4) against Top 25 RPI teams, whereas the Cougars are under .500 (3-4) in similar high-leverage spots. This battle-tested nature supports the narrative of Kansas covering as a home underdog.

How to Watch Houston vs Kansas

ESPN is televising the Houston at Kansas game. Tip-off is set for 9 pm, ET, but ESPN also is televising Louisville at UNC, which starts at 7 pm. If that game runs long, there is a chance Houston at Kansas will be delayed slightly or start on one of ESPN’s sister channels or streaming services.

Houston vs Kansas Odds

• Moneyline: Houston -152 | Kansas +127
• Spread: Houston -2.5 (-112) | Kansas +2.5 (-108)
• Total: Over 138.5 (-107) | Under 138.5 (-114)

Odds as of February 23, 2026, from consensus.

The betting market has firmly established Houston as the road favorite, albeit by a narrow margin. The line suggests a tightly contested battle, with the oddsmakers giving a slight edge to Houston’s overall consistency despite the hostile environment. The total of 138.5, with the Under favored at -114, aligns with the expectation of a defensive struggle.

Implied Probabilities

Based on the current moneyline odds, the implied win probabilities for each team (normalized to remove the vigorish) are as follows:

• Houston: 57.8%
• Kansas: 42.2%

Betting Payouts

For bettors looking to place a wager on the outright winner, here is the potential return on investment for a $20 bet:

• Backing Houston (-152): A $20 wager on the Cougars would return $13.16 in profit for a total payout of $33.16.
• Backing Kansas (+127): A $20 wager on the Jayhawks would return $25.40 in profit for a total payout of $45.40.

Surveying the market, on Kalshi you can buy a Houston contract at $0.60 per, and Kansas to win at $0.42. This means you would stand to win $0.40 for each Houston contract purchased, should the Cougars win the game, while you would stand to profit $0.58 on each Kansas contract, should it win. This means your same $20 investment in Houston at Kalshi would profit $12 versus the $13.16 at a sportsbook. That same $20 investment in Kansas would profit $25 if the Jayhawks win vs. $25.40 at a sportsbook.