Predictions, Expert Picks & How to Watch SMU vs Louisville

• No. 24 Louisville faces bubble team SMU in the second-round of the ACC Tournament today
• My model finds value on SMU +6.5, while sharp money supports over 163.5
• See the top SMU vs Louisville picks and predictions for March 11, plus how to watch the ACC Tourney

Jump to: ODDS || PICKS || SPLITS

How to Watch Louisville vs SMU

After splitting their regular-season series, the Louisville Cardinals (22-9, 11-7 ACC, ATS) and SMU Cowboys (20-12, 9-10 ACC, ATS) will meet for a third time in the second round of the ACC Tournament on Wednesday afternoon.

Tip-off is slated for 2:30 pm ET at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC. ESPN will carry the national broadcast.

a two-game winning streak, aiming to solidify a deep NCAA Tournament run. Conversely, SMU arrives squarely on the bubble, riding the momentum of a decisive 86-69 first-round upset over Syracuse that snapped a four-game skid. This neutral-court tilt tips off on March 11 at 2:30 PM ET from , broadcasting live on ESPN.

Louisville swept into this matchup rested after a bye, but they suffer a massive blow with star guard Mikel Brown Jr. (18.2 points per game) ruled out for the tournament due to a back injury. SMU features a fully operational, high-octane backcourt led by Second Team All-ACC guard Boopie Miller and dynamic scorer Jaron Pierre Jr. With tournament survival on the line, oddsmakers have positioned Louisville as the betting favorite, leaving SMU as a live underdog desperate for a marquee victory to keep their postseason hopes alive.

Louisville vs SMU Odds (Best Spread, Moneyline, Total)

The betting markets opened with Louisville listed as a -208 moneyline favorite, but sharp steam has pushed their price to a peak of -294. BetMGM currently has the longest odds on a Cardinals win -285. The point spread also stretched from the opening -5.5 to the current -6.5 or -7.0 number, forcing chalk bettors to lay an extra point. The total has seen minor downward movement, dropping from 164.5 to 163.5 at most books, and as low as 162.5 at Fanatics.

Stripping the bookmaker’s vig from the current moneyline odds reveals the true implied probabilities for this neutral-court battle. Louisville holds a normalized 71.73% chance of advancing, leaving SMU with a 28.27% vig-free probability of pulling off the outright upset.

Odds and commentary as of 11:44 am ET, March 11th. Find the best online sportsbook for Wednesday’s NCAAM games.

Louisville vs SMU Picks & Best Bets

Handicapping this ACC tournament clash requires looking past the surface-level AP rankings and diving into the underlying metrics across KenPom, BartTorvik, Haslametrics, etcetera.

Despite holding the No. 24 AP ranking, Louisville enters this matchup with a glaring flaw: a 0-5 straight-up record against top-25 opponents this season. They feast on weaker competition (13-0 against teams ranked 101+) and have consistently faltered when tested by elite offensive units.

ATS Pick: SMU +7.0 (-110 at Caesars)

SMU, possessing a tougher Strength of Schedule (0.5752) and a 0.5822 RPI, has been heavily battle-tested, securing a 6-3 (66.7%) straight-up record against teams ranked 51-100. They took down Louisville (95-85 home) back on Feb 17 after the Cardinals took the first meeting of the season in Louisville (88-74).

The SMU offensive profile creates a matchup nightmare for Louisville’s perimeter defense. Guard Boopie Miller erupted for 25 points on 60.0% shooting from the floor, including 5-of-9 (55.6%) from beyond the arc in Tuesday’s 81-69 win over Syracuse. Flanked by Jaron Pierre Jr (21 points, five 3-pointers vs SYR), SMU’s backcourt generates consistent high-percentage looks.

SMU center Jaden Toombs controls the paint efficiently with a 57.1 FG%, recently logging 11 rebounds and six assists. KenPom (87-81) and Haslametrics (85.34-78.83) projects a tight, possession-by-possession battle, giving the analytical edge to the underdog catching multiple possessions. The spread is as high as SMU +7.0 (-110) at Caesars, and that’s my top pick this afternoon in Charlotte.

Game-Total Pick: Over 162.5 (-110 at Fanatics)

The total sits at an elevated 163.5, and BartTorvik’s pace metrics suggest an absolute track meet (169 total points). SMU’s five-out ball movement and Louisville’s ACC-leading 17.4 assists per game set the stage for an offensive showcase, even with the anticipated increase in defensive intensity that tends to come with elimination games.

The two regular-season meetings between these teams averaged 171 PPG. Both offenses rank in the top-20 at KenPom, and both defenses are outside the top-25. Stops will be at a premium.

Louisville vs SMU Betting Splits

Analyzing Wednesday’s college basketball public betting splits validates taking the points with the underdog. In the spread market, SMU commands 59.07% of the total tickets but a robust 70.13% of the overall betting handle. While this does not qualify as a traditional sharp versus public divergence – which requires one side to hold 60% or more of the money while the opposite holds 60% or more of the tickets – the heavy 70.13% money percentage strongly indicates that larger, more respected bankrolls are aligned on SMU +6.5. Louisville is attracting just 40.93% of the tickets and a meager 29.87% of the spread money.

On the moneyline, casual bettors are utilizing the favored squad as a parlay anchor. Louisville dominates with 93.63% of the tickets and 86.95% of the straight-up handle, while SMU sees minimal backing at 6.37% of tickets and 13.05% of the cash.

For the total, market consensus squarely expects a shootout. The Over is monopolizing the betting windows, pulling in 75.95% of the tickets and 72.06% of the total handle.