Canadiens vs Senators Prediction, Picks, Props & Odds (Wednesday, Mar. 11)

• Ottawa is 9-1-2 since January 25 and allowing just 2.08 goals per game in that stretch, fewest in the NHL
• Stutzle’s 13-game point streak is the longest active run in the league
• See my Canadiens vs Senators prediction, picks and props below for Wednesday’s Battle of Ontario

Something has to give Wednesday night in Ottawa. The Montreal Canadiens (35-18-10) bring the NHL’s hottest offense into Canadian Tire Centre against an Ottawa Senators (32-22-9) defense that has been the league’s stingiest over the last six weeks.

The last time these two met, on January 18, it was a wild 6-5 Montreal win. The over has hit in all six meetings between these rivals this season and last.

Puck drop is at 7:30 pm ET on Rogers. Here are my Canadiens vs Senators prediction, picks and props.

Canadiens vs Senators Prediction

• Ottawa Senators ML (-190 at Bet365)

Montreal’s offense is legit, but I’m riding the Senators for my Canadiens vs Senators prediction. Ottawa is 9-1-2 since January 25, the second-best record in the NHL behind only Dallas (11-0-1). Before that stretch, the Sens were 23-21-7 and ranked 25th overall.

The turnaround has been driven by defense. Ottawa has allowed just 2.08 goals per game since January 25, the fewest in the league. They shut out Vancouver 2-0 on Sunday and held Calgary to one goal last Thursday.

Canadiens vs Senators Key Stats

There’s one massive vulnerability for Ottawa: their penalty kill against Atlantic Division opponents sits at a league-worst 58.2%. Montreal’s power play has been clicking at 34.6% since January 29. That’s a dangerous combination, and it’s what keeps this from being a slam dunk.

But Ottawa has the goaltending edge. Linus Ullmark has been significantly better at home, posting a 2.34 GAA and .908 save percentage at Canadian Tire Centre compared to 3.19 and .866 on the road. The Senators are also the most physical team in the league, averaging 46.9 combined hits per game.

Ottawa is 6-0 on one day’s rest this season, and Montreal is playing the second half of a back-to-back after beating the Leafs last night. That rest advantage justifies laying the -190.

Canadiens vs Senators Picks

• Tim Stutzle Over 0.5 Points (-234 at DraftKings)

I’m kicking off my Sens vs Habs prop picks with a bet that can’t miss lately. Stutzle carries a 13-game point streak into Wednesday, the longest active run in the NHL. He has eight goals and nine assists during the streak, and he’s also on a three-game point streak specifically against Montreal.

The price is steep at -234, but Stutzle has been nearly automatic. He’s running Ottawa’s top power-play unit against a Montreal PK that ranks 27th in the league, and the Sens’ PP has converted at 30.9% against Atlantic Division opponents.

Additonal Canadiens vs Senators Props

• Cole Caufield Anytime Goal (+180 at FanDuel)

Another bet I’m targeting is Cole Cuafiled to score a goal. Caufield has seven goals in his last 10 games and is on a four-game point streak against Ottawa. He’s reportedly playing through illness, but he’s been too hot to fade.

Ottawa’s PK against Atlantic opponents has been torched all year (58.2%), and Caufield is one of the best trigger men in the league from the left circle. At +180, this is my favorite Canadiens vs Senators prop outside of the juiced Stutzle bet.

• Nick Suzuki Over 0.5 Assists (-130 at BetMGM)

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Suzuki has gone over 0.5 assists in eight of his last nine road games. He’s on a seven-game point streak against Ottawa and has six points (one goal, five assists) against the Sens this season.

Over the last two years, only Leon Draisaitl has matched Suzuki’s 11 points against Ottawa. At -118 odds, this is a strong price on a playmaker who feeds Caufield on the power play.

• Lane Hutson Over 0.5 Assists (-148 at DraftKings)

Wrapping up my Habs vs Sens props is a play on Lane Huston to record an assist. Hutson is on a four-game overall point streak and has 10 assists in his last 10 games. He also has a three-game point streak specifically against Ottawa, racking up five assists in those three meetings.

Eight of his nine career points against the Senators have been assists. Hutson quarterbacks the top PP unit for a Montreal power play that’s converting at 34.6% since January 29.

Canadiens vs Senators Odds

Odds as of March 11 via consensus sportsbooks. Claim the Bet365 bonus code “SBD365” to bet on tonight’s NHL odds.

The Canadiens vs Senators odds have Ottawa as a solid home favorite at -190 (Bet365), with Montreal at +162 (FanDuel). The puck line is set at 1.5, with Ottawa at +132 (FanDuel) and Montreal at -150 (Caesars).

The total sits at 6.5 goals, with the over at -110 (Bet365) and under at -105 (DraftKings). The over has hit in six straight meetings between these two, but Ottawa’s recent defensive form could push this one under.

The Senators are 6-0 on one day’s rest this season, and Montreal is 2-6 in their last eight in Ottawa.