By Brady Trettenero in NBA Basketball
Published:
Saturday night’s NBA slate wraps up with the Sacramento Kings (16-51, 5-28 away) visiting the LA Clippers (34-32, 19-13 home) at the Intuit Dome. Tip-off is set for 10:30 pm ET, with ESPN, NBCS-CA and FDSSC providing the broadcast coverage.
The Kings are in full teardown mode sitting dead last in the West, while the Clips are clinging to the 8-seed and fighting to stay in the play-in picture. Online sportsbooks aren’t giving Sacramento much of a chance, listing LA as double-digit home favorites in the latest NBA odds.
Below you’ll find my Kings vs Clippers prediction, plus a full odds breakdown, player props and the latest injury news.
Jump to: Prediction | Odds | Player Props | Injury News
Laying 13.5 points with any NBA team usually gives me pause, but Sacramento is running a skeleton crew tonight. Seven players have been ruled out, including Domantas Sabonis (knee), Zach LaVine (finger), Keegan Murray (ankle), Malik Monk (ankle) and Devin Carter (calf). That’s their best big man, top perimeter scorer, best bench scorer and multiple key rotation pieces all sitting.
Outside of DeMar DeRozan, there’s not much left. Russell Westbrook is back after missing Wednesday’s game, and rookie Dylan Cardwell returns from an 11-game absence, but that’s about it for reinforcements.
The Clippers are close to full strength. Kawhi Leonard, Darius Garland, John Collins and Brook Lopez are all expected to go. Collins missed the last seven games with a neck strain but has been cleared for tonight. Bradley Beal (hip) has been out for a while, but LA adjusted to that months ago.
The numbers back it up. Sacramento ranks dead last in true shooting percentage, dead last in three-point shooting and 28th in points allowed. The Clippers rank third, eighth and 10th in those same categories. It’s a mismatch across the board.
LA has also owned this head-to-head, winning the last five meetings. They beat the Kings 131-90 back in December, and won a tight 114-111 game on Feb. 6 when Sacramento was significantly healthier.
The Clips are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 against teams with a winning percentage below .400, and they’re riding a four-game win streak that includes a 153-point explosion against Minnesota.
My Kings vs Clippers prediction is LA covering the 13.5. I expect the Clippers to jump on Sacramento early and put this one away by halftime.
The Kings vs Clippers odds tell the whole story. LA’s -926 moneyline works out to roughly an 86.6% implied probability of winning outright, while the +615 on Sacramento is a longshot lottery ticket.
The total opened at 231.5 and has already been bet up to 233.5. That makes sense when you consider the Kings allow 120.9 points per game with zero rim protection available tonight.
I’m leaning over on the total as well. The Clippers have gone over in nine of their last 11 home games, and the over has cashed in five of SAC’s last six road contests. Sacramento plays at a fast pace (15th in the NBA), and even in blowouts their guys keep pushing. That combo tends to inflate scoring totals regardless of the final margin.
Odds as of March 14. New customers can claim the FanDuel promo code and get a bonus to bet on NBA.
DeMar DeRozan Over 17.5 Points (-114 at Caesars)
As for the NBA player props market, I’m targeting DeMar DeRozan over 17.5 points. The line is set a full point below his 18.4 season average, and his road splits (18.1 ppg) still clear this number comfortably.
With Sabonis, LaVine, Murray and Monk all out, DeRozan is the only reliable scorer left standing. He just went off for 39 points on 17-of-22 shooting against Charlotte in his last outing.
He did have a cold stretch in late February with a couple single-digit games, but those came with reduced minutes. When he plays 30-plus, he clears this line consistently.
Expect Sacramento to lean on him all night. Even if this game turns into a blowout, DeRozan has been logging 25-34 minutes in recent games as the team’s veteran leader on a rebuilding squad. He’s not the type to check out early.
Sacramento has ruled out seven players for tonight. Domantas Sabonis (knee), Zach LaVine (finger) and De’Andre Hunter (eye) are all done for the year.
Keegan Murray (ankle) is expected to miss at least two more weeks, while Malik Monk (ankle), Devin Carter (calf) and Drew Eubanks (thumb) have also been ruled out.
The good news for SAC is Russell Westbrook is back after missing that Hornets game with a quad contusion, and rookie center Dylan Cardwell returns from an 11-game absence with an ankle sprain. Still, that’s a whole lot of missing talent. DeRozan is going to have to carry a massive load offensively.
The Clippers are in much better shape. John Collins (neck) is back after missing seven straight games, and Darius Garland returns after sitting out Friday for injury management.
The only guys out are Bradley Beal (hip fracture, season), Yanic Niederhauser (Lisfranc tear, season) and Nicolas Batum, who’s resting. That’s about as healthy as LA has been all year.
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Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
Updated: 4 hours ago
