Expert Picks for USA vs Dominican Republic & How to Watch WBC Semifinal

• USA is a -122 moneyline favorite over Dominican Republic in semifinal action at the World Baseball Classic
• Paul Skenes will take the ball for the Americans, while the Dominicans will counter with Luis Severino
• See my USA vs Dominican Republic expert picks, plus how to watch the WBC semifinal

It may only be the semifinal, but no one would argue that tonight’s USA vs Dominican Republic clash at the World Baseball Classic is the defacto championship game. These two baseball superpowers are the top remaining teams, especially now since Japan has been eliminated.

Both teams feature an incredible combination of speed and power up and down their lineup, with the Americans holding the edge in the starting pitching department, but the Dominicans boasting the better bullpen.

Keep reading for my USA vs Dominican Republic expert picks, plus how to watch the WBC semifinal.

How to Watch USA vs Domican Republic WBC Semifinal

First pitch for this epic showdown is set for 8pm ET, 5pm PT, from loanDepot park, in Miami, FL.

FS1 – which can be streamed live on Fubo TV – will provide coverage across the US, while Sportsnet will handle Canadian broadcast duties.

USA vs Dominican Republic WBC Odds

As of Sunday afternoon, Team USA is the equivalent of a -122 moneyline favorite at Kalshi. The Dominican Republic comes back at the equivalent of a +113 underdog at the prediction market, with the over/under set at 9 across the majority of commercial sportsbooks.

Odds as of March 15 at Kalshi and DraftKings. Make sure you use SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code to bet on the World Baseball Classic.

USA vs Dominican Republic Picks

• Dominican Republic Moneyline (+113 at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

USA vs DR

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

USA

55%

Dominican Republic

47%

Predict

Team USA is a slight favorite over the Dominicans in the WBC odds, but you could argue the Dominicans have been the better team. Outside of a close game versus Venezuela in pool play, they’ve outscored the opposition 44-5.

Fernando Tatis J. has been the most potent bat, going 7-for-16, with two homers, 11 RBI and a 1.404 OPS. He’s surrounded by stars like Juan Soto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr, to name just a few, but no player has had more success against tonight’s starter Paul Skenes than Julio Rodriguez. The Mariners slugger is 3-for-6 all-time against Skenes, with a pair of extra-base hits.

Speaking of Skenes, the Dominicans won’t have to face him for too long tonight. He’ll reportedly throw just 75-80 pitches (even though tournament rules allow 95 in the semifinals), so if the DR can be patient at the plate, they could knock him out by the 5th inning. Skenes threw four scoreless innings in his WBC debut against Mexico, striking out 7.

Once Skenes exits however, the Americans bullpen will have to hold on for dear life. Those arms have allowed 11 runs over the last three games, all versus competition nowhere close to the Dominicans.

As for the American hitters, they’ll have to deal with Luis Severino, who was touching 99 mph last time out. Severino threw 4.0 innings of one-run ball in his tournament debut, and brings plenty of big game experience to the table with 13 career playoff starts.

Team USA’s lineup is just as loaded as the D.R.’s, led by Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber and Cal Raliegh, but not all their starts are hitting. Bryce Harper is only 3-for-20 so far, while Alex Bregman and Ernie Clement are both hitting below .200.

One bat the Americans could really use, especially early, is Gunnar Henderson’s. He’s 7-for-9 lifetime against Severino, but playing him would require the tough decision of sitting either Bregman or Brice Turang.

If Team USA can’t get to Severino, they’ll be in trouble. The Dominican bullpen, led by the likes of Camilo Doval, Carlos Estevez and Seranthony Dominguez is electric, and capable of shutting down even the best hitters in baseball.

The Americans needed help just to advance to the knockout round, and were far from dominant versus Canada in the quarters. The Dominican Republic on the other hand, mercy ruled Korea, marking their fourth win of 9+ runs.

Simply put, I think the wrong team is favored tonight. Sure Skenes is a nightmare to go up against, but his pitch count limits just how much damage he can do. I’ll gladly roll with the Dominicans on the moneyline at +113, and will bet their +1.5 run line as well at -145 odds.