Computer Picks for NIT Games Today – A.I. Best Bets for All 8 Games (March 17)
By Sascha Paruk in College Basketball
Published:
The 2026 NIT tips off tonight with a packed slate of eight games. Tip-offs run from 6:00 pm ET (Liberty vs #3 George Mason) to 11:00 pm ET (UNLV vs #4 UC Irvine) with the seede team hosting each matchup.
I ran all eight of Tuesday’s game through our A.I. model, generating the computer’s top pick for each matchup. The table below summarizes the picks (plus the best-available odds). Under the table, I have set out the computer’s explanation for each pick.
A.I. NIT Picks – Computer Predictions for March 17
The A.I. has a mix of four ATS underdogs, three ATS favorites, and one under bet in its NIT predictions for Tuesday, March 17th.
Below, I have set out the computer’s rationale for each of its picks, along with tip-off time and broadcast information for each game, and one-click options to tail each bet at the sportsbook currently offering the best price.
Liberty @ George Mason (6 pm ET, ESPN)
Pick: Liberty +4.5 (53¢ at Kalshi)
A.I. Explanation: “George Mason (23-9) opened as a 5-point home favorite, but this line has dropped to -3.5, signaling sharp money on the Flames. Liberty (25-7) brings the better overall record and a battle-tested roster into EagleBank Arena. The moneyline has also shifted from -225 to -190 for George Mason, a notable move that suggests the market is growing less confident in the Patriots at this price. In a first-ever postseason meeting between these two programs, take the points with the team that has won more games this season and is clearly attracting respected action.”
UNC Wilmington @ Yale (7 pm ET, ESPN+)
Pick: Yale -4.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
A.I. Explanation: “Yale (24-6) hosts at home after a heartbreaking overtime loss to Penn in the Ivy League final, and motivation should not be an issue. The Bulldogs opened at -5.5 and have come down to -4.5, giving bettors a half-point of extra value. UNC Wilmington (26-6) had an outstanding regular season as CAA champions, but this is just their third NIT appearance ever and first since 2001. Yale’s homecourt advantage and familiarity with postseason pressure — combined with the tighter spread — make the Bulldogs the play here.”
Wyoming @ Wichita State (7 pm ET, ESPNU)
Pick: Wichita State -5.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
A.I. Explanation: “Wichita State (22-11, 14-6 AAC) is a dominant home team playing at Charles Koch Arena, and the Shockers carry a significant edge in conference pedigree over Wyoming (18-14, 9-12 MWC). The line opened at -6 and has ticked down slightly to -5.5, but the moneyline tells the real story: the Shockers sit at -250, reflecting a 71.4% implied win probability. Wyoming’s sub-.500 conference record raises serious concerns about their ability to compete on the road against a quality opponent. Trust the home side to cover comfortably.”
Davidson Wilcats @ Oklahoma State (8 pm ET, ESPN2)
Pick: Davidson +7.5 (54¢ at at Kalshi)
A.I. Explanation: “Oklahoma State (19-14, 7-13 Big 12) is the home favorite at Gallagher-Iba Arena, but a 7-13 conference record in the Big 12 is hardly inspiring. The spread opened at -8.5 and has dropped a full point to -7.5, suggesting the market respects Davidson (20-13, 11-9 A-10) more than the opening number implied. The Wildcats went 11-9 in the Atlantic 10 and have experience in close games after an overtime win over Loyola Chicago in the A-10 Tournament. Getting more than a touchdown with a competitive mid-major feels like strong value in a game between two evenly flawed teams.”
Stephen F Austin @ Tulsa (9 pm ET, ESPNU)
Pick: Under 153.5
A.I. Explanation: “This total opened at 153 and has ticked down to 152.5, and the line movement aligns with what the matchup suggests. Tulsa (26-7) is a top NIT seed and a -319 moneyline favorite, meaning the Golden Hurricane should be able to control tempo at home. Stephen F. Austin (28-5) won back-to-back Southland Conference regular-season titles with a 21-3 league record, so the Lumberjacks are no pushovers — but their strength is built on disciplined play, not high-octane offense. The 1st half total sits at just 72, further supporting a grind-it-out pace. Take the under in what should be a well-coached, methodical affair.”
South Alabama Jaguars @ Auburn Tigers (10 pm ET, ESPN2)
Pick: Auburn -16.5 (57¢ at at Kalshi)
A.I. Explanation: “The Tigers (17-16) have no business being in the NIT based on record alone, but this is an SEC program with elite-level talent that was on the NCAA Tournament bubble. The selection committee snub has Auburn playing with a massive chip on its shoulder, and the in-state rivalry dynamic at Neville Arena only adds fuel. South Alabama (21-11) had a solid Sun Belt season but missed the conference’s auto-bid by one game. The spread opened at -17.5 and has ticked up to -18, meaning money is pouring in on Auburn. With a staggering -2381 moneyline (96% implied win probability), the Tigers are expected to dominate. Expect Auburn to make a statement in front of its home crowd and cover.”
St. Thomas @ Seattle (10 pm ET)
Pick: St Thomas +1.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
A.I. Explanation: “This is the tightest game on the board and the one where the line movement screams value. Seattle opened as a 2-point home favorite and has dropped to just -1, while the moneyline has shifted dramatically from -130 to -115 for the Redhawks. Meanwhile, St. Thomas (24-9, 13-5 Summit League) has moved from +110 to -105 — the Tommies are now essentially a coinflip on the moneyline despite being the road team. St. Thomas brings the stronger record and the better conference mark compared to Seattle’s 20-13 (9-11 WCC). Grab the point with a team the market increasingly believes should be favored.”
UNLV Runnin’ @ UC Irvine (10 pm ET)
Pick: UNLV +1.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
A.I. Explanation: “UC Irvine opened as a 3-point home favorite, and that line has been slashed nearly in half to -1.5. The moneyline tells a similar story, moving from -155 to -130 for the Anteaters. UNLV accepted their NIT bid and enters this first-ever meeting between the programs with the edge in conference pedigree and name recognition. The Runnin’ Rebels are getting points in what the market is treating as a near pick’em, and the sustained line movement in UNLV’s direction suggests sharp bettors see value on the visitors. Take the points in what projects as a tight, competitive game.”
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
