Saint Joe’s vs Colorado State Best Bets & Predictions for NIT (March 18)

• Colorado State is the favorite (-230) in their NIT matchup against St Joseph’s
• Both the Hawks and Rams won at least 20 games this season
• Here are my Saint Joseph’s vs Colorado State predictions and odds, along with how to watch this NIT game

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How to Watch Saint Joseph’s vs Colorado State

The postseason is officially here, and I am absolutely hype for this late-night college basketball action. We have the Colorado State Rams (21-12 overall, 12-5 at home) hosting the Saint Joseph’s Hawks (22-11 overall, 6-7 on the road) in a win-or-go-home NIT first-round showdown. Tip-off is scheduled for 11:00 p.m. ET on March 18 at Moby Arena in Fort Collins, Colorado, with ESPNU handling the national broadcast.

First-year bench boss Ali Farokhmanesh has Colorado State clicking at the perfect time, securing 21-victories and earning a No. 3 seed in their NIT region. On the flip side, veteran coach Steve Donahue brings his battle-tested Atlantic 10 squad cross-country after a stellar 22-win campaign of their own.

Colorado State enters as the home favorite, looking to capitalize on the raucous “Moby Madness” energy, while Saint Joseph’s embraces the deep water as the road underdog. Both squads fell short in their respective conference tournaments, but they have new life in the NIT. Keep scrolling, because I am breaking down the board to find the absolute best betting angles for this matchup.

Saint Joseph’s vs Colorado State Odds

I always shop around college basketball odds to find the absolute best numbers for my card. Here is how the current market shapes up for this late-night hardwood battle. You have to double-check March Madness injuries before placing any bets at this time of the year.

• Moneyline: Saint Joseph’s (+188 at FanDuel) | Colorado State (-230 at FanDuel)
• Spread: Saint Joseph’s +5.5 (-110 at Caesars) | Colorado State -5.5 (-110 at Caesars)
• Total: Over 143.5 (-108 at DraftKings) | Under 143.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Oddsmakers have drawn a firm line in the sand for this NIT opener. The spread opened at Colorado State -5.5 and has held tightly to that exact number. When you strip away the sportsbook’s vig on the standard -110 spread odds, the normalized, vig-free probability for either team to cover sits at exactly 50.00%. If you are looking to get some skin in the game, placing a $20 wager on either Colorado State to cover the -5.5 or Saint Joseph’s to keep it within the number at -110 odds would yield a profit of $18.18, bringing your total payout to $38.18.

Odds as of March 18, at 3:07 p.m. ET from Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings, and FanDuel

Saint Joseph’s vs Colorado State Betting Splits

Before I lock in my official card, I always want to know where the heavy cash is flowing. The college basketball public betting splits paint an interesting picture for this matchup, especially when comparing ticket counts to actual financial handle.

In the moneyline market, the public is blindly backing the home favorite. Colorado State commands a massive 93.28% of the betting tickets to win straight up. However, when you look at the total stake, that number drops notably to 67.49%. Meanwhile, Saint Joseph’s is drawing a sparse 6.72% of the tickets but accounts for a respectable 32.51% of the money. While this does not quite cross the 60% threshold required for a true “sharp vs public” divide, it tells me some larger, respected wagers are taking a flier on the road underdog.

The total market is where the real story lies. The over is getting 69.54% of tickets, but it dominates the handle with a staggering 87.84% of the overall money. The UNDER is an absolute ghost town, capturing just 12.16% of the cash. I lean on money percentages as my most valuable metric, and nearly 88% of the handle banking on a high-scoring shootout.

Colorado State vs Saint Joseph’s Picks

Now it is time to build the bankroll. When analyzing this matchup, you have to look past the surface-level records and dig into the resume metrics. According to the NCAA NET Rankings, Colorado State sits at No. 87, while Saint Joseph’s lags behind at No. 121. The analytical mismatch comes down to the strength of schedule and high-leverage experience.

Colorado State navigated a brutal Mountain West gauntlet. They are battle-tested and enter this game red-hot, having won nine of their last 11 matchups overall. Moby Arena provides a MASSIVE altitude and crowd advantage, and Colorado State has been clinical against lesser competition. In fact, Colorado State is an elite 11-2 straight up against opponents ranked 151 or lower in the national metrics – a massive 84.6% success rate that perfectly aligns with our situational betting angles for teams capitalizing on talent mismatches.

The Hawks have been tested on the highway – going 6-7 in true road games – but their defensive anchor, Justice Ajogbor, will have his hands full defending the painted area. Meanwhile, dynamic facilitator Derek Simpson will look to push the pace for an offense that has to keep up with the Rams’ high-efficiency scorers like Jevin Muniz.

Because traditional individual player props are currently off the board for this early NIT window, I am attacking the structural edges by correlating the spread and the total.

My Pick: Colorado State -5.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Colorado State simply has too much firepower on its home floor. They split their regular-season series with a powerhouse like San Diego State, proving they can hang with the elite. Asking Saint Joseph’s to travel cross-country and keep this within two possessions against a team that feasts on sub-100 NET competition is a tall order. Colorado State will pull away late and easily cover this moderate number. Back the home favorite, root for points, and let’s cash these tickets!

My Total Pick: OVER 143.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
I am following the heavy money. The total steamed up 2.5 points from the opener, and the splits confirm massive financial backing on an uptempo shootout. If Colorado State dictates a fast pace, gets to the charity stripe, and forces Saint Joseph’s into a track meet.

Odds as of March 18, at 3:01 p.m. ET from DraftKings and FanDuel