#9 Utah State vs #1 Arizona Expert Picks & Betting Splits

• #1 Arizona is an 11.5-point favorite over #9 Utah State in West Region 2nd Round action
• The Wildcats are 12-2 this year versus top-25 ranked opponents
• See why I’m backing the favorite in my Utah State vs Arizona expert picks, plus get the latest odds and betting splits, below

Fresh off dismantling Long Island University 92-58, and riding a 10-game winning streak, #1 Arizona takes on #9 Utah State in 2nd Round action tonight at the NCAA Tournament. The Aggies took care of business against Villanova 86-76 in the 1st Round, but aren’t garnering much respect from online sportsbooks.

The Wildcats have been pegged as heavy 11.5-point favorites in the college basketball odds, in a game with a total of 154.5. I’m backing both Arizona and the over in my expert picks, so keep reading to find out why, plus see the latest odds and betting splits for this matchup.

You can watch this Round of 32 showdown beginning at 7:50 pm ET tonight, live on truTV from Viejas Arena in San Diego, CA.

Utah State vs Arizona Expert Picks

• Over 154.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
• Arizona -11.5 (-114 at FanDuel)

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The winner of this matchup will advance to the Sweet Sixteen in the printable March Madness bracket, to take on SEC Champion Arkansas.

Arizona features a lethal trio of freshmen, led by Brayden Burries and Ivan Kharchenkov. Utah State counters with the dynamic backcourt of Mason Falslev and MJ Collins Jr. This neutral-site showdown promises fireworks.

Elite offensive efficiency from both squads jumps off the page, with Arizona pouring in a staggering 86.3 points per game, while Utah State answers with 81.8 points per contest. Both offenses are absolute wagons right now. My favorite bet in this contest as a result is the Over. With both teams executing at elite clips, this game script screams fast-paced shootout.

I’m also backing the Wildcats against the spread. While laying 11.5 points is tough, Arizona is a top March Madness championship odds contender, and their +17.8 average point differential is unmatched.

The Wildcats are 12-2 straight up against AP top-25 opponents this season, and 10-4 ATS. They control the glass relentlessly, leading to plenty of second chance points that helps them build margin. Tobe Awaka pulls down eight rebounds in just 18 minutes off the bench, while Kharchenkov is fresh off a 14-point, 10-rebound double-double. Utah State simply lacks the frontcourt depth to survive for 40 minutes.

Utah State vs Arizona Odds

When it comes to the Utah State vs Arizona odds, it’s important to shop around for the best number, as lines vary across different sportsbooks. I’m going to be using FanDuel for my Wildcats spread wager, as they are one of the few books to offer an 11.5 point line.

As for the total, if you’re betting the Over make sure you visit DraftKings. While their 154.5 point total is in line with the market, they have the lowest juice posted at the time of writing.

Odds as of March 22, 2026. New Customers can claim the FanDuel Promo Code to bet on the NCAA Tournament.

Utah State vs Arizona Betting Splits

Moving over to the college basketball public betting splits, where the public is blindly backing the favorite to advance. Arizona commands a massive 97% of the moneyline betting tickets and 87% of the overall financial handle.

The point spread market tells a much more fascinating story. Arizona is drawing 77% of the spread tickets, showing casual bettors trust them to cover the large number. However, the actual money wagered is split right down the middle, with Utah State holding 50% of the total handle.

Because the money percentage does not exceed the 60% threshold on Utah State, this does not officially qualify as a strict sharp versus public divide. Still, the massive drop-off between Arizona’s ticket volume and their handle indicates larger, sharper wagers are quietly taking the points with the underdog.

The total splits meanwhile, align with my Over 154.5 wager. The Over is commanding 65% of the tickets and a hefty 68% of the money. When the cash percentage outweighs the ticket percentage, it is a strong indicator that sharp bettors expect a fast-paced shootout.