#6 Alabama vs #3 Louisville Picks & Odds for Women’s NCAA Tourney

• #3 Louisville is an 8.5-point favorite over #6 Alabama in second-round action at the NCAAW Tournament
• The Crimson Tide are seeking their first Sweet Sixteen trip since 1998
• Keep reading for my Alabama vs Louisville picks, plus the latest odds

Second-round action at the Women’s NCAA Tournament continues on Monday, with a Regional 3 showdown between #6 Alabama and #3 Louisville. Online sportsbooks are siding with the Cardinals, pegging them as 8.5-point favorites. I personally think that number is too rich, and will be targeting the Crimson Tide on the spread, and for a sprinkle on the moneyline

Keep reading for my complete set of my Alabama vs Louisville picks and the reasoning behind them, plus the latest odds and how to watch his contest.

Alabama vs Louisville Odds

As of Sunday night, Louisville are favored by 8.5 points and -410 on the moneyline at DraftKings. If you’re looking to back Alabama on the moneyline, do yourself a favor and head to Kalshi. The prediction market is trading the Crimson Tide at the equivalent of a +355 moneyline, which are much longer odds than traditional sportsbooks.

Odds as of March 22 at DraftKings and Kalshi. Make sure you use SBD’s exclusive DraftKings promo code to bet on the Women’s NCAA Tournament.

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Alabama vs Louisville Picks

• Alabama +8.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
• Alabama Moneyline (+355 at Kalshi)

There’s no question which program is more battle tested when it comes to March Madness. Under head coach Jeff Walz, the Cardinals have made four trips to the Final Four, and four additional Elite Eight appearances. They’re looking to get back to the Elite Eight for the first time since 2023, and bring a 28-7 record into play.

The Crimson Tide meanwhile, are seeking their first Sweet Sixteen berth since 1998, when they ripped off five straight appearances before the program took a step back. To do so, they’ll have to contain a good (but perhaps overrated) Louisville offense, and figure out how to penetrate a Cardinals defense that ranks among the best in the country in enemy shooting percentage.

To pull off the upset, they’ll need to rely on their crafty guard Jessica Timmons. The redshirt senior, and All-SEC second team player splashed 21 points in the Alabama’s First Round win over Rhode Island, shooting 50% from the field. She leads the team in scoring with 16.6 points per outing, and is connecting on over 40% of her triples.

The Crimson Tide also boast two more reliable scorers at the guard position in Ta’Mia Scott and Karly Weathers, but they’d be wise to let Essence Cody go to work from her forward position. The 6-4 junior poured in 19 points last time out, and is a threat to score inside and out. She’s hyper efficient from the field, shooting 57% on the season, and showed off her range by burying three triples in the opening round.

That kind of efficiency will be paramount against Louisville, as will a strong defensive effort. Alabama enters play holding enemy shooters to 38.5% from the field, and 30% from three. They completely neutralized Rhode Island’s offensive attack last time out, holding them to just 55 points on 33% shooting. The Crimson Tide also forced 13 turnovers, and their aggressive defense can give the Cardinals trouble.

Louisville enters play ranked 92nd in turnovers this season. They rely on a trio of scorers in Tajianna Roberts, Imari Berry and Laura Ziegler, who all average 11 points per game, but they’ve turned into a bit of a school yard bully as of late. The Cardinals have scored 65 points or less in three straight games versus top-25 opponents, while averaging north of 80 in all other games since the middle of January.

Alabama vs Louisville Stats

Even in their 1st Round victory, they underwhelmed from the field, shooting just over 45%. They made up for it by crashing the glass relentlessly versus a less talented Vermont team, but they won’t be able to bully this Crimson Tide roster.

Ultimately, this is way too many points for Louisville to be laying. Alabama played a tougher schedule than the Cardinals during the regular season, and their defense grades out nearly identically. Louisville has a slighter better offensive rating, but much of the gap is the result of an inferior set of opponents, while Alabama’s Timmons is the best player on either side. I love grabbing the points with the Crimson Tide, and will play their moneyline as well for a smaller wager.

Alabama vs Louisville How to Watch

Tip off for the Alabama vs Louisville matchup is set for Noon ET from the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, KY, and will be broadcast across the nation on ESPN. You can also stream the game on Fubo, with the winner advancing to play #2 seed Michigan on Saturday.