#6 Tennessee vs #2 Iowa State Picks, Predictions & Injury Updates

• The #2 Iowa State Cyclones battle the #6 Tennessee Volunteers in the Sweet 16 on Friday
• I expect Iowa State’s elite defensive metrics to show up against a sub-elite UT offense
• See my top Iowa State vs Tennessee picks plus injury updates on Joshua Jefferson and how to watch

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How to Watch Tennessee vs Iowa State

A berth in the Elite Eight is on the line tonight when the #2 Iowa State Cyclones (29-7 SU, ATS) square off against the #6 Tennessee Volunteers (24-11, ATS) at the United Center in Chicago. This Midwest Region Sweet 16 showdown tips off on March 27 at 9:10 pm CT/10:10 pm ET, with live national coverage on TBS and truTV.

In the second round, Iowa State came back from an early deficit to rout #7 Kentucky (82-63) while Tennessee pulled off a seven-point upset over #3 Virginia (79-72).

Iowa State enters as the clear betting favorite, however the health of star forward Joshua Jefferson, who sprained his left ankle against Tennessee State in the first round and missed the win over Kentucky, remains up in the air. His MRI didn’t reveal any structural damage but he remains a game-time decision in the Sweet 16 injury reports.

Iowa State vs Tennessee Picks & Predictions

Before getting to my specific picks, comparing how these two programs stack up statistically is crucial for finding an analytical edge.

TENN vs ISU Team Stats

Iowa State boasts a massive +17.2 PPG differential. Even with Jefferson’s injury scare, the roster has proven its depth. During their 108-74 rout of Tennessee State, players like Killyan Toure and Nate Heise stepped up with 25 points and 22 points, respectively, anchoring a massive 17-0 run that showcased their offensive firepower and ability to adapt. Senior point guard Tamin Lipsey almost single-handedly dragged the Cyclones out of an early 18-6 hole against Kentucky.

Jefferson (16.4 PPG, 7.4 PPG, 4.8 APG) is undeniably the team’s MVP but TJ Otzleberger’s team has enough balance to remain a Final Four contender sans their best player.

Moneyline Pick: Iowa State -170 (63¢ at Kalshi)

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Iowa St ML

63%

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If you bet this at a traditional sportsbook, you will have to lay -180 juice (or more). At prediction site Kalshi, on the other hand, you can buy Iowa State to win at 63, which is the equivalent of a -170 moneyline.

These are two of the best, most-physical defenses in the nation, but Iowa State is in a slightly higher tier. The Cyclones rate fifth in DRtg at KenPom (compared to 14th for Tennessee) and the Vols’ offense is the most suspect unit on the floor, ranking just 31st in offensive efficiency. UT has lost its last three games against top-15 opponents (Vanderbilt twice, Alabama), while Iowa State is 1-2 with both setbacks coming against Arizona, the outright favorite in the March Madness championship odds.

Game-Total: Under 140.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

I am fading the early market movement here. The total originally opened at 138.5 before ticking up to 140.5. In win-or-go-home postseason scenarios, defensive intensity naturally ramps up. With Tennessee giving up just 69.1 points per game, both squads have the perimeter defense to dictate a slower pace. I will gladly take the extra two points of value the line movement provided and back the under.

Iowa State vs Tennessee Best Odds

The current betting lines firmly position Iowa State as the favorite to advance. Based on the moneyline at sportsbooks, the vig-free win probabilities give Iowa State a 62.83% chance to advance to the Elite Eight, leaving Tennessee with a 37.17% probability of securing the upset (summing to exactly 100%).

If you are looking to place a wager on the outright winner, the potential returns vary significantly. A $20 bet on the favored Iowa State (-184) would yield a return of $30.80. Alternatively, placing that exact same $20 stake on the underdog Tennessee (+160) presents a much higher reward, generating a total payout of $52.00.

But remember that prediction markets like Kalshi and Novig often have been odds on the moneyline, spread, and total. (New users can follow this link to claim the Novig promo code.)

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Iowa State vs Tennessee Betting Splits

The outright-winner market shows massive alignment on the favorite. Iowa State is commanding 82.75% of the betting tickets and a slightly higher 84.46% of the total handle in Friday’s college basketball public betting splits. Bettors are evidently not buying into an outright SEC upset here, preferring to lay the juice on the favorite to simply survive and advance. I count myself among the majority here.

The spread market paints an interesting picture when separating the tickets from the actual cash. Looking at the ticket splits, it is nearly a dead heat: Iowa State holds a razor-thin edge at 50.57% of the bets compared to Tennessee’s 49.43%. However, Iowa State is drawing a larger 57.8% of the overall stake. This indicates that the heavier wagers are backing the favorites to cover the number, which aligns with my handicap.

The action on the total is incredibly lopsided. A staggering 87.78% of the betting tickets and 86.42% of the money are riding on the OVER.