By Brady Trettenero in MLB Baseball
Published:
The first Saturday of the MLB season is here, and the batter vs. pitcher data is already giving us some juicy player prop spots. I combed through every career matchup on Saturday’s slate (minimum 10 plate appearances), and a few names jumped off the page.
Below you’ll find the full OPS breakdown followed by my three best bets for the day per the latest MLB odds.
All stats are career regular season batter vs. pitcher splits. Minimum 10 plate appearances, active rosters only. Sample sizes of 10-15 PA should be treated as directional, while 20+ PA is more reliable.
I’ve got three Saturday MLB best bets I like from this data. All three are backed by strong career batter vs. pitcher numbers and favorable matchup profiles. Check the latest MLB player props before locking in your picks.
My top MLB player prop for Saturday is Elly De La Cruz total bases over against Sonny Gray. This is the best batter vs. pitcher matchup on the entire slate, and it’s not close.
De La Cruz is hitting .455 with a 1.773 OPS against Gray in 12 career plate appearances. The raw numbers are absurd, but the type of contact is what makes this pick so appealing. He has a home run, two doubles, and two triples off Gray, giving him an ISO of .818. Almost every hit he gets against this pitcher goes for extra bases.
The strikeout rate is elevated at 41.7%, so a hits prop carries more risk. But when De La Cruz does make contact against Gray, the ball is going a long way. Total bases is the cleaner play here.
Busch has three home runs in just 16 plate appearances against Miles Mikolas. That’s an 18.75% HR rate, and his 1.438 OPS in the matchup backs it up.
What separates this from some of the other plays on the board is the plate discipline. Busch’s K% against Mikolas is only 6.3%, meaning he’s making consistent hard contact and not just selling out for power. He’s hitting .400 with a 1.000 slugging percentage, so the contact quality is elite.
Late March at Wrigley can be tricky weather-wise, so check wind conditions before pulling the trigger. But the batter vs. pitcher profile is as clean as you’ll find on any Saturday MLB prop.
Henderson owns a .400 average and 1.100 OPS against Taj Bradley in 20 plate appearances. That 20 PA sample gives us more confidence than most of the other top-tier matchups on Saturday’s board.
He’s got a homer, a double, and a triple off Bradley, so the power is there too. But the play I like most is the hits prop. Henderson’s 0% walk rate against Bradley means he’s being aggressive and swinging early in counts. He’s not waiting around. When you pair that approach with a .400 batting average, a hits over is a strong bet.
The O’s also have Colton Cowser hitting .400 with a 1.100 OPS against Bradley in 10 PA. Two Baltimore bats with identical OPS lines against the same pitcher is a strong signal for an Orioles team total look as well.
Odds as of March 28th. Claim the bet365 bonus code to bet on MLB player props today.
Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
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