Senators vs Lightning Prediction, Picks, Odds & Start Time | March 28

• Tampa Bay is a -160 home favorite Saturday afternoon against an Ottawa team missing five defensemen
• The over has cashed in 12 of the last 16 meetings between these teams in Tampa Bay
• Keep reading for my Senators vs Lightning prediction, picks, odds and start time for Saturday’s matinee

Ottawa’s blueline has been gutted. Thomas Chabot, Jake Sanderson, Nick Jensen, Dennis Gilbert and Lassi Thomson are all sidelined, leaving the Senators (38-24-10) to piece together a makeshift defense for Saturday’s trip to Tampa Bay (44-21-6).

That’s a rough draw against a Lightning team that ranks second in goals per game at 3.606, especially with Andrei Vasilevskiy between the pipes. The Bolts are 21-12-1 at home and have won eight of 10 at Benchmark International Arena against teams with a winning road record.

Puck drop is at 1:00 pm ET from Benchmark International Arena in Tampa. My Senators vs Lightning prediction, picks and NHL odds are below.

Prediction | Picks | Odds | Start Time

Senators vs Lightning Prediction

• Over 6 Goals (-110 at Bet365)

My Senators vs Lightning prediction is the over, and the head-to-head history alone is enough to sell me. The over has hit in 12 of the last 16 meetings in Tampa Bay, and 19 of the last 27 overall between these two clubs.

Ottawa’s defensive situation makes it hard to envision a low-scoring game. The Senators are running out a patchwork blueline with Tyler Kleven, Artem Zub, Nikolas Matinpalo, Jordan Spence, Jorian Donovan and Carter Yakemchuk — not exactly the group you want matching up against Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel.

Senators vs Lightning Key Stats

Then there’s the goaltending mismatch. Ottawa’s team save percentage sits at .875 — dead last in the NHL. Their opponent shooting percentage of 12.54% is also the worst in the league. Tampa Bay doesn’t need much help creating offense, but getting to face a team that can’t stop the puck is a bonus.

The over has also cashed in eight of Tampa Bay’s last 11 games overall, six of their last eight at home, and in all six of the Lightning’s Saturday games this season. With both teams sporting power play units in the top 12 and Ottawa’s penalty kill ranking 30th at 74.64%, there’s plenty of room for special teams scoring on top of everything else.

The Senators aren’t pushovers offensively either. They rank ninth in goals per game at 3.319 and have a top-four power play. Ottawa is sixth in the Atlantic per the latest NHL playoff bracket, and five of their last six road games have been wins, so they’ll contribute their share to this total.

Senators vs Lightning Picks

I’ve got two Senators vs Lightning picks on the player prop side, both from the Tampa Bay lineup.

• Jake Guentzel Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+112 at FanDuel)

Guentzel has cleared 2.5 shots on goal in three of his last four home games, and he’s averaged 3.33 shots per game in his last 12 games following a loss. Tampa Bay dropped a 4-3 overtime decision in Seattle on Thursday, so this is a bounce-back spot.

Plus-money on a guy who fires the puck as often as Guentzel does is always worth a look, and the matchup against Ottawa’s depleted defense only sweetens the deal.

• Anthony Cirelli Over 0.5 Points (-110 at BetMGM)

Rounding out my Senators vs Lightning picks, I’m going with Cirelli to find the scoresheet. The 27-year-old center has recorded a point in eight of his last 11 games, averaging 1.27 points per game during that stretch. He’s also posted a point in four of his last five games following a loss.

Cirelli skates on Tampa Bay’s second line alongside Brandon Hagel and Nikita Kucherov. With Victor Hedman out, the Lightning will lean even more on their forward group to drive offense, and Cirelli is right in the middle of it at -110 odds.

Senators vs Lightning Odds

Odds as of Mar. 28. Check out SBD’s bet365 bonus code to bet on the NHL this weekend.

Tampa Bay’s -160 moneyline carries an implied probability of roughly 62%, while Ottawa’s +140 line gives the Senators about a 42% implied chance of pulling off the upset. The Lightning are 33-14 as favorites this season and 44-27 on the moneyline overall.

The puck line is interesting here. Tampa Bay is +160 to win by two or more goals, and they’ve covered at a 32-31 rate this season. Ottawa’s +1.5 comes at a steep -175 price, but the Senators have been competitive on the road at 20-13-4.

As for the Senators vs Lightning odds on the total, the over 6 is available at -110 at Bet365, while the under 6.5 is -130 at Fanatics. Given the trends and matchup, I’m comfortable with the over at that number.

Linus Ullmark vs Andrei Vasilevskiy Stats

Vasilevskiy has been the backbone of Tampa Bay’s season. The 34-win netminder owns a 2.33 GAA and .911 save percentage through 50 appearances, though he’s coming off a rough .800 save percentage outing in Seattle.

Ullmark has been solid for Ottawa, going 22-10-1-7 with a 2.75 GAA, but his recent stretch has been inconsistent. He’s allowed four or more goals in four of his last 10 starts, including a 3-4 shootout loss in Pittsburgh on Thursday. Ottawa’s overall team save percentage of .875 isn’t doing him any favors either.

Senators vs Lightning Start Time

Saturday’s Senators vs Lightning game is scheduled for 1:00 pm ET from Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida. Check the Senators vs Lightning odds page for the latest line movement heading into puck drop.