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NFL #3 Pick Odds – Are Cardinals Favored to Go Offense or Defense Third Overall?
By Ryan Potts in NFL News
Published:
- Two defenders lead the way in terms of odds to be the #3 pick
- The Cardinals have their highest pick since 2019
- Continue reading for the #3 pick odds
The 2025 NFL season was forgettable for the Arizona Cardinals, who slumped to a 3-14 record. After a 2-0 start, Arizona lost all but one game the rest of the way, finishing a distant last place in an NFC West division that sent three teams to the playoffs. With a putrid record in the rearview mirror, the Cardinals have the #3 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
The 2026 NFL Draft is slated to begin at 8:00 pm ET on Thursday, April 23. Pittsburgh will host all three days of the draft. Round 1 will be Thursday. Rounds 2 and 3 will be held Friday, April 24. The final four rounds will be held on Saturday, April 25. ABC, ESPN, and NFL Network will cover the draft.
Keep reading for a breakdown on the top prospects who the Arizona Cardinals could take with the #3 pick.
Cardinals First Draft Pick Odds
Kalshi
Arvell Reese
50%
David Bailey
33%
Jeremiyah Love
20%
Francis Mauigoa
7%
Spencer Fano
3%
Rueben Bain Jr.
2%
Carnell Tate
2%
Sonny Styles
2%
Ty Simpson
2%
Fernando Mendoza
1%
Based on Kalshi’s odds, Arvell Reese is the favorite to go to the Cardinals with the #3 pick, listed with a 33% probability (equivalent to +203 odds). Behind Reese is fellow defender David Bailey at 25% (equivalent to +300 odds). Based on Matt McEwan’s odds-based mock draft, Bailey is the best bet to head to the desert with the No. 3 pick.
The highest-probability offensive player is Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love at 23% (equivalent to +335 odds). Offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa rounds out the top four with a 10% chance (equivalent to +900 odds).
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Who Will Be Off the Board When Arizona Picks #3?
While the Cardinals could opt to trade the #3 pick, they are likely to stand pat and select a player.
#1 Pick
The Las Vegas Raiders have the #1 pick, and they are overwhelmingly likely to select Indiana quarterback and Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza. In NFL Draft Odds, Mendoza has a 99% chance to be taken with the top pick. With this in mind, Mendoza is listed with a less than 1% chance to be taken with the #3 pick.
#2 Pick
The New York Jets hold the #2 pick, one of two first-round selections for the Jets. As of Tuesday night, Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey has a 60% chance to be the #2 pick according to Kalshi. The only other player with a likelihood above 1% is Ohio State hybrid linebacker Arvell Reese.
With Mendoza’s selection essentially locked, the Jets will determine which top-tier pass rusher will fall to Arizona at the #3 pick.
Offensive Names to Watch
All percentages are accurate as of 7:30 pm ET on Tuesday, April 21.
Jeremiyah Love, 23%
A two-time 1,000-yard rusher at Notre Dame, Love finished third in 2025 Heisman voting after recording 1,652 scrimmage yards and 21 touchdowns. Love is an advanced pass catcher in addition to his elite profile as a runner. In three years in South Bend, Love accrued 2,882 rushing yards and 36 rushing touchdowns.
Francis Mauigoa, 10%
Miami’s right tackle on its path to the CFP Title Game, Mauigoa is widely regarded as the top offensive tackle in the 2026 NFL Draft. Mauigoa played over 2,800 snaps over three seasons with the Hurricanes. The 6-foot-6 Mauigoa has a balanced profile, projecting to be an above-average pass protector and run blocker.
Carnell Tate, 3%
Yet another elite Ohio State wide receiver, Carnell Tate tallied 875 yards and nine receiving touchdowns as the No. 2 receiver for the Buckeyes (behind Jeremiah Smith). In three seasons, Tate posted 121 catches for 1,872 yards and 14 touchdowns. The former five-star recruit is a ball magnet, using his 6-foot-3 frame to box out defensive backs.
Spencer Fano, 3%
Experienced at both left tackle and right tackle, Fano is a stellar athlete. Fano spent the last two seasons at right tackle for one of the country’s top offensive lines in Utah. He tallied over 1,600 right tackle snaps and 500 left tackle snaps in three seasons. Fano can be beaten with a quality bull rush, but he has exceptional hands to parry pass rushers.
Ty Simpson, 2%
Likely to be the second quarterback off the board on Thursday night, Ty Simpson was a one-year starter for Alabama. He threw for 3,567 yards and 28 touchdowns, leading the Crimson Tide to the CFP Quarterfinals. He was second in the SEC in both passing yards and passing touchdowns.
Defensive Names to Watch
All percentages are accurate as of 7:30 pm ET on Tuesday, April 21.
Arvell Reese, 33%
A linebacker at Ohio State, Reese is slated for the Micah Parsons track at the NFL level. In other words, Reese will likely be an off-ball linebacker who moonlights as a pass rusher early in his career before transitioning to being a pure edge rusher as his rookie deal goes along. Reese had 6.5 sacks and was an All-American in 2025.
David Bailey, 25%
The NCAA’s leader in sacks in 2025, David Bailey had a massive breakout season for a CFP-bound Texas Tech squad. A Stanford transfer, Bailey recorded 19.5 tackles for a loss and 14.5 sacks in his senior season. Unlike Reese, Bailey is a true pass rusher from Day 1 even if his athletic upside is not quite as high as Reese.
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Ryan Potts is a veteran football and baseball content creator. He was previously a credentialed NFL media member, covering the draft, bombine, and Super Bowl. He has been featured on Atlanta sports talk radio and Arizona student radio. Ryan is a journalism graduate from the University of Arizona.
