Third QB Drafted in 2026 – Who’s Favored After Mendoza, Simpson?

• Fernando Mendoza will likely be the #1 pick of the NFL Draft
• Will Ty Simpson find a home on Day 1 of the draft?
• Continue reading for a look at the third quarterback drafted odds

The 2026 NFL Draft will begin in earnest in Thursday, April 23 at 8:00 pm ET when the Las Vegas Raiders select Fernando Mendoza with the first overall pick. After Mendoza, Alabama’s Ty Simpson is overwhelmingly likely to be the next quarterback off the board in NFL Draft odds. Beyond Simpson, however, there is intrigue.

Keep reading for a quick glance at the five most likely candidates to be the third quarterback drafted in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Third Quarterback Drafted Odds (2026)

Prediction Markets

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Kalshi

Haynes King

99%

Garrett Nussmeier

51%

Drew Allar

46%

Carson Beck

40%

Cole Payton

32%

Ty Simpson

24%

Taylen Green

8%

Diego Pavia

4%

Cade Klubnik

1%

Luke Altmyer

1%

Predict

Miami’s Carson Beck leads the way in odds here with a 47% chance to be the third quarterback off the board. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier is a close second, representing a 41% chance. Other notables include North Dakota State’s Cole Payton and Penn State’s Drew Allar who are at 12% and 8% respectively. Diego Pavia rounds out the top five with a 1% chance.

Both Ty Simpson and Fernando Mendoza are available to be bet on, but they both have less than 1% chances to go in this slot. Mendoza is a mortal lock to be the #1 pick while Simpson is likely to go at some point in the first round. Matt McEwan has Simpson going in the first round in his odds-based 2026 NFL Mock Draft.

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Drew Allar, 8%

Allar played four years at Penn State, serving as the team’s primary starter in 2023 and 2024 before sustaining a midseason injury in a disastrous 2025 season. In Happy Valley, Allar threw for 7,402 yards and 61 touchdowns to just 13 interceptions. He also tacked on 12 rushing touchdowns, totaling 59 touchdowns in his two full years as a starter.

Allar looks like a prototypical quarterback, but his play has yet to match the tools. He has big game experience, leading the 2024 Nittany Lions to the CFP Semifinals, but he did not throw a touchdown in either of Penn State’s CFP games against Power 4 opponents.

Carson Beck, 47%

Beck played in 55 games across six collegiate seasons. He was a two-year starter at Georgia before transferring to Miami. At 6-foot-4, Beck checks off size and athleticism boxes, but his main concern is his decision-making. Beck fired 32 interceptions, including 12 in both 2024 and 2025. As poised as Beck was throughout Miami’s run to the CFP Final, the lasting image will be Beck throwing a season-ending interception.

Beck gets a massive checkmark in the experience department. He threw for over 11,700 yards in college and tossed 88 touchdowns. He won’t set any athleticism records, but he did have eight scrimmage touchdowns in college, including the game-winning touchdown in the CFP Semifinal against Ole Miss.

Garrett Nussmeier, 41%

A huge breakout in 2024, Nussmeier opted to return to school and aim to be the #1 pick. Unfortunately for Nussmeier and LSU, 2025 was a trying season that saw Brian Kelly lose his job. Nussmeier’s yardage and touchdown tallies were chopped in half as the senior only played nine games.

Son of Saints offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier, Nussmeier is cerebrally excellent in his understanding of the game. However, he does not have the prototypical size or athleticism that the likes of Allar and Beck have. Nussmeier can be turnover prone – he tied Beck for the SEC lead in interceptions in 2024.

Cole Payton, 12%

The great unknown of the quarterback class, Payton was a one-year starter at North Dakota State. In 2025, threw for 2,719 yards and 16 touchdowns on just 225 attempts. He has rushing upside, both as a short-yardage threat and as a true runner. He tallied over 1,500 rushing yards and 30 rushing touchdowns for the Bison in his career.

By far the least experienced of the contenders to be the third quarterback taken, Payton’s lack of experience reared its disastrous head in North Dakota State’s upset loss to Illinois State in the FCS Playoffs. Payton was held under 100 total yards. He is a great athlete, but he needs some seasoning as a passer.

Diego Pavia, 1%

On the other side of the coin, Pavia is not an NFL-caliber quarterback, athletically speaking, but he had enough moxie to impress Johnny Manziel. The runner-up to Mendoza in Heisman voting, Pavia led the SEC in completion percentage, passing touchdowns, yards per pass, and passing efficiency in 2025. Pavia was Offensive Player of the Year both in Conference-USA (in 2023 with New Mexico State) and SEC (in 2025 with Vanderbilt).

Pavia is likely destined to be a Day 3 pick or a priority free agent, but it would only take one team to fall in love with Pavia’s passion and playmaking for him to be the third quarterback off the board. He is also a culture changer and one of the best underdog stories in recent college football history.

Percentages are from Kalshi as of Wednesday, April 22, at 10:30 pm ET.

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