Odds for Trump Mentions at White House Correspondents’ Dinner

• For the first time in his five-plus years in office over two terms, President Donald J. Trump and First Lady Melania Trump will attend the White House Correspondents’ Dinner
• This is an unusual turn from Trump given his antagonism toward the mainstream media and vice versa
• Prediction markets are speculating on what Trump might say when he gives his remarks Saturday evening

The White House Correspondents’ Dinner (WHCD) will be held at the Washington Hilton on Saturday, April 25, 2026 at 8:00 p.m., ET, hosted by mentalist Oz Pearlman. The event is portrayed as a break from the usual seriousness of reporting on the important and often dire business of governing the most powerful nation in the world. For some, it’s a welcome respite in which the president can enjoy an innocent back and forth with the media. In turn, the media gets to drop its veneer of seriousness in a friendly atmosphere, at least for one night, before getting back to the customary neutral corners of the octagon that is Washington D.C. politics. Before the President takes to the podium, let’s break down all the latest odds for Trump mentions at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner.

The 2026 event is markedly different from past WHCDs in that the relationship between President Trump and the media is, at best, combative. At worst, it is baleful. During his time as president, Trump has steadfastly refused to appear at the event, a notable deviation from precedent. In the past, Trump has proclaimed (paraphrasing) that he does not have time for such trivialities as he’s trying to Make America Great Again and it’s a 24/7 job. The reality is that he hates the media and believes it is out to get him no matter what he does. So why give them the satisfaction of appearing at their event as though bygones are bygones?

There are justified questions about the event’s propriety to begin with. The media is supposed to be an evenhanded conduit between the government and the population. While that is a utopian viewpoint that has never truly been the case, the quid pro quo nature and inherent partisanship is the worst it’s ever been. And it’s not getting any better. Clicks take precedence over objective information. Trump, with his five-plus decades of experience in the public eye, understands how the game works. He feels that a press that was once his transactional ally, betrayed him by willfully distorting what he says, thus granting him the right to refer to them as “fake news.”

Never ever forget that it is widely believed that President Barack Obama’s vicious roasting of then-citizen Trump at the 2011 WHCD is believed to have been the spark that sent Trump on his way to seriously running for president. Trump was in the audience and put on a brave face for the cameras, but he was enraged at the public chastisement.

Since this is Trump’s first appearance at the event, prediction markets are offering options as to what words and phrases he might use when he appears onstage and gets his chance to roast the press in a less serious environment than a normal presidential press conference or gaggle.

Odds for Trump Mentions at White House Correspondents’ Dinner

Those feeling confident that Trump will say a word or phrase can use the Kalshi referral code to take advantage of a $10 Sign Up Bonus for new users after they have completed $10 in trades.

This market has recently surpassed $315,000, but as the WHCD draws nearer, it will assuredly rise exponentially.

Since Trump has a showman’s sensibility combined with a vindictive personality, it is likely he will mix comedy with outright hostility. The question is whether it will be directed at the attendees, political enemies, celebrities, or some random person who’s drawn his ire.

The available words or phrases Trump might use at the WHCD vary. They include his usual attacks against the media, discussing current events, and justifying his actions as president. At the end of the day, it’s Trump, so he might say anything.

Market rules dictate that if Trump says a selected word or phrase at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, the market will resolve to Yes. The source must be reputable. That includes The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Reuters, the Associated Press, Axios, CNN, and others. It can also be from The White House.

The criteria can be complicated and have nuance, so it’s important to understand them beforehand.

Fake News

To Trump, the only thing funnier than a poisonous barb is uttering said poisonous barb right in the face of the target of his vitriol. He has a captive audience with the correspondents at his mercy. And mercy will not be forthcoming. “Fake news” is one of the president’s favorite phrases and it’s not a random slogan. He means it. He really thinks a vast percentage of the media is fake news. This is based on his experience in his past life manipulating it with outright untruths or preposterous exaggerations.

He’s likely going to say “fake news” and the percentage is in the mid-80s attesting to that prediction.

Truth

There are certain words that can be sprinkled in when discussing multiple concepts. “Truth” is one such word.

Since Trump views the media as lying incessantly, it stands to reason that he might say “truth” at least once during his appearance, even if it’s an aside as part of a pre-planned bit.

It could come out as “The truth is…” or “The media refuses to tell the truth…”

The current percentage is in the mid-60s range.

Sleepy Joe

Trump can’t resist taking potshots at his successor/predecessor, former President Joseph R. Biden. It still stings Trump that he lost to Biden in the first place. That enmity was evident at a White House Easter event for children when Trump sat with several kids and told them about Biden and his frequent use of the Autopen.

Will Trump mention “Sleepy Joe” as part of a comedy bit?

It’s a good bet he will. The percentage is in the 60s.

Barack Hussein Obama

As mentioned earlier, Trump was livid at Obama humiliating him publicly. Since Obama received what Trump perceives as a lifetime free pass from media criticism, it only adds to his anger at the former president. It’s not assured that he mentions “Barack Hussein Obama” and the market has it at about 50% that he will. But if Trump wants to get vengeance at the same forum where Obama attacked him, it would be symbolic and on brand.

AI/Artificial Intelligence

Trump has a unique ability of sensing a target’s weak points and exploiting them. The media is reticent or outright fearful of the rise of artificial intelligence since it is putting many jobs in jeopardy. “AI/Artificial Intelligence” is just the type of thing that Trump would say to send a menacing message to the media that they all might be out of work relatively soon if the advancements continue, as they inevitably will.

It is around 25% on the market that he says “AI/Artificial Intelligence.”