Final UFC 328 Predictions, Picks & Latest Odds – Chimaev vs Strickland Main Card

• Saturday’s UFC 328 is headlined by the Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland middleweight championship fight
• This bout will mark Chimaev’s first defense of his middleweight title
• See the UFC 328 predictions, picks and latest odds for the Chimaev vs Strickland Main Card, below

Saturday is fight night, and the UFC 328 card is full of bangers. The event is headlined by the Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland middleweight championship bout, with the two already producing fireworks during their pre-fight stare down on Thursday.

This feud has been boiling over for quite some time, but despite the bad blood online sportsbooks expect a very one-sided fight. They’ve pegged Chimaev as a hefty -575 moneyline favorite to defend his middleweight belt.

The UFC 328 prelims are already underway on Paramount+, with the main card fights scheduled to start at 6:15 pm PT, 9:15 pm ET, also on Paramount+.

Here are the UFC 328 predictions, picks and latest odds for the Chimaev vs Strickland Main Card.

UFC 328 Main Card Odds

Odds as of May 8 at Bet365. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC 328 on Saturday.

This card also features a second title bout, as Joshua Van will defend his flyweight belt versus Tatsuro Taira as a +136 underdog. I see a little value on Van as such a big ‘dog in that fight, but my favorite picks of the night are both centered around the headline bout.

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UFC 328 Predictions: Chimaev Method of Victory

I’m backing Chimaev in this spot to submit Strickland, despite the ladder’s strong wrestling background. These two used to train together, and Strickland has accused Chimaev of many things, including being a bully in the gym. That’s fitting, because bullying is exactly what I expect Chimaev to do to his opponent in this spot.

Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland Tale of the Tape

Strickland is a defensive specialist with an impressive 76% takedown defense. However, his defense is tailored toward defending traditional wrestling. Chimaev’s grappling is different. He is relentless in his pursuit to get his opponent down to that mat, not looking for just the takedown, but to also secure the back. Once Chimaev attaches himself to an opponent, he rarely lets go.

Strickland will do everything he can to keep this bout upright, but his boxing heavy stance is a liability. Chimaev is a master at timing low entry takedowns that take advantage of this high position. Strickland has never been finished in his pro career, but he’s never faced a fighter this talented. The Russian is not just a control grappler, he’s a finisher.

Chimaev has finished 12 of his 15 professional opponents, with every one of those early results coming before the end of round 2. As a result, I’m also betting this fight lasts under 2.5 rounds. Chimaev’s ability to force a frantic pace in the first two rounds often leads to opponents making major mistakes, such as giving up the back or leaving an arm exposed during a scramble.

• UFC 328 Picks #1: Chimaev by Submission (-105 at Bet365), Under 2.5 Rounds (-110 at Bet365)

UFC 328 Predictions: Van Moneyline

Back to Van now, who I’ll make the case is a good bet against Taira given his +136 price to retain his title. Van averaged 8.84 significant strikes per minute, the highest rate in UFC history. For context, that’s nearly 6 strikes more per minute than his opponent.

Yes, Taira is a world class grappler, but Van’s striking skills can keep his opponent outside takedown distance. He has the engine to overwhelm Taira, and if he can force him into a standup war, his power and speed can propel him to another victory.

• UFC 328 Picks #2: Joshua Van Moneyline (+136 at Bet365)