Updated NASCAR Go Bowling at The Glen Odds & Final Predictions for Sunday’s Race

• The green flag for the Go Bowling at The Glen drops at 3 p.m. ET on FS1 from Watkins Glen International
• Sportsbooks are overvaluing name recognition in several head-to-head markets
• Crew chiefs at Watkins Glen spend the entire afternoon trying to solve advanced calculus while SVG disappears into the distance

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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Watkins Glen International this weekend for the Go Bowling at The Glen, which means two things are guaranteed: somebody will overshoot the bus stop by 40 feet, and SpeedwaySteve2 HQ will spend the entire afternoon pretending we’re emotionally stable while live-betting road-course strategy.

As somebody with more than 50 career 300 games and entirely too many weekends spent inside bowling alleys that smell like rental shoes, overcooked mozzarella sticks, and decades of cigarette smoke trapped in the walls, this race has always felt a little like a home game. NASCAR only gives us one “Go Bowling” race a year, and somehow it always delivers maximum nonsense.

That’s especially true now that Shane van Gisbergen has entered the chat.

SVG has basically turned every road-course weekend into an uncomfortable experience for sportsbooks. The outright prices keep getting shorter, the matchup numbers keep climbing, and somehow he still keeps embarrassing people who have been racing stock cars their entire lives.

The problem is that he is so absurdly fast.

That doesn’t mean there isn’t betting value on the board, though. Watkins Glen tends to create longer green-flag runs, strategy splits, and wildly shuffled running orders once pit cycles begin. A car can look completely dead for 20 laps before suddenly cycling into the top five because a crew chief decided to embrace chaos and short-pit Stage 2 like an overly-caffeinated accountant.

That’s where the matchup market gets interesting.

Road courses also have a funny way of convincing everybody they’re a reincarnated Italian racing legend right up until they miss the braking zone entering Turn 1 and destroy a tire barrier. One mistake, one wheel-hop, or one poorly timed caution can vaporize a solid afternoon in about three seconds. That volatility creates opportunities, especially deeper down the oddsboard where sportsbooks are still pricing certain drivers based more on brand name than actual road-course speed.

And frankly, that’s our favorite kind of gambling.

Updated Go Bowling at The Glen Odds

Odds available at theScore Bet as of at 8:27 am ET, May 10.

Shane van Gisbergen starts from the pole and is listed as a -120 favorite to win the Go Bowling at The Glen, implying a 54.55% win probability.

Chase Briscoe over Ryan Blaney (-115, theScore)

Chase Briscoe rolls off ninth and checks in as our second-ranked driver after practice and qualifying. SpeedwaySteve2 HQ projects Briscoe to finish 5.3 on average, while Ryan Blaney lands at 10.6 after qualifying seventh and posting a pretty uninspiring 21st-place practice ranking.

There are issues for the No. 19, but @chasebriscoe keeps it out of major trouble. pic.twitter.com/Obylp68JTk

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) May 9, 2026

This matchup feels more about race approach than outright speed.

Blaney has certainly improved on road courses over the years, but this still isn’t exactly his playground. It also wouldn’t shock us if the No. 12 team gets a little aggressive chasing stage points early, especially at a track type where Blaney historically hasn’t looked like a serious win threat. Staying out before the end of Stage 1 to steal points could temporarily flip track position, but it may come at the expense of overall race-winning strategy.

Briscoe, meanwhile, should be operating with the opposite mindset.

The No. 19 Toyota has shown legitimate pace all weekend, and this feels like the kind of race where the team should prioritize long-run track position and overall finish rather than trying to collect eight extra stage points like they’re loose change found in the couch cushions at SpeedwaySteve2 HQ. If this thing turns into a strategy race late…and Watkins Glen usually does…we’d rather be holding the driver with top five speed.

Kyle Larson over Chase Elliott (+120, DraftKings)

Kyle Larson starts 23rd, which honestly felt like a victory considering how ugly practice looked for the Hendrick camp. Somehow, Chase Elliott managed to do even worse, rolling off 27th after a similarly rough weekend.

A few years ago, this matchup would’ve felt like choosing between filet mignon and slightly different filet mignon. Then SVG arrived and turned the rest of the garage into background actors.

Even so, Larson’s underlying road-course profile still gives us the edge here.

Neither Hendrick car flashed elite speed during practice, and qualifying didn’t exactly inspire confidence either, but Larson’s historical metrics remain stronger across the board. Our projections have Larson finishing 4.16 positions ahead of Elliott on average, while sportsbooks are pricing Larson at roughly a 45% implied win probability in the matchup.

Meanwhile, the fancy thinking box over at SpeedwaySteve2 HQ spits out 64.43%.

Now, does that mean this is a “12-star triple-diamond mob steam inside fix guaranteed mortgage-maker lock of the century?”

Absolutely not.

This is NASCAR. Somebody could miss the bus stop, launch a late caution, and ruin all of our emotional stability in under six seconds.

Still, at plus money, we think Larson is one of the better values currently sitting on the board. One unit flat gets the job done just fine.