Chimaev vs Strickland Last-Minute Prediction & Best Props | UFC 328 Tonight

• Khamzat Chimaev defends the middleweight title against Sean Strickland in tonight’s UFC 328 main event from the Prudential Center
• Chimaev is a -500 favorite at Bet365 with Strickland sitting at +375
• See my last-minute Chimaev vs Strickland prediction and best prop bets below

The UFC 328 main card is underway, and the middleweight title fight between Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland is getting closer. These two have been going back and forth for years about who won their sparring sessions. Now they settle it for real with the belt on the line at the Prudential Center in Newark.

Chimaev (15-0) won the title from Dricus du Plessis at UFC 319 and makes his first defense tonight. Strickland (30-7) earned this shot with a sharp TKO of Anthony Hernandez in February.

The main card is live now on Paramount+, with the main event expected around 11:30 pm ET. Here are my last-minute Chimaev vs Strickland prop picks.

Chimaev vs Strickland Prediction

I’m taking Chimaev by decision at +290. The moneyline at -500 is way too much juice, but the decision prop gives you nearly 3-to-1 on what I think is the most likely outcome tonight.

Chimaev’s wrestling is on another level. He averaged 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes across his UFC career and landed 12 of 17 against du Plessis, racking up over 21 minutes of control time. He doesn’t just take you down, he keeps you there.

Tale of the Tape

The control time gap over the last three fights is staggering. Chimaev logged 32 minutes and 16 seconds across his bouts with du Plessis, Robert Whittaker, and Kamaru Usman. Strickland has 19 seconds. Not a typo. These two could not be more different in how they want this fight to go.

Strickland is the better striker by a wide margin. He lands 6.04 significant strikes per minute compared to Chimaev’s 4.04, and attempted 906 significant strikes over his last three fights while Chimaev threw just 121. If this stays standing, Strickland’s volume will pile up fast. But keeping it standing against Chimaev is the problem nobody has solved.

Strickland’s takedown defense is 76%, which is respectable. Du Plessis took him down seven times across their two fights, but Strickland only gave up about two minutes of control time because he scrambles well. Chimaev is a different caliber of wrestler though. Against DDP, Chimaev landed 12 of 17 takedowns and held him down for 21-plus minutes.

So why the decision and not a finish? Strickland is incredibly tough and has never been submitted. His only knockout losses came from Alex Pereira and a spinning wheel kick from Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Chimaev will control this fight from the top, but Strickland’s scrambling keeps him alive long enough to lose a clear decision rather than get finished. That’s what makes +290 so appealing.

• Chimaev vs Strickland Pick: Khamzat Chimaev by Decision (+290 at Bet365)

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Best Prop Bet: Strickland 75+ Strikes Landed

My second prop is Strickland to land 75 or more total strikes at +205. This might seem strange when I’m picking against him, but it actually pairs perfectly with the decision pick.

If this fight goes the distance, Strickland is going to land strikes. He threw 402 significant strikes against Paulo Costa and 350-plus against du Plessis in five-round fights. Even when he’s getting taken down, he stays active on the feet between grappling exchanges.

Chimaev’s striking defense is just 43%. He eats shots in the pocket while closing distance for the takedown, which means Strickland will land clean when the fight is standing.

This prop doesn’t need Strickland to win. It just needs the fight to go long enough for him to accumulate shots, and a grinding Chimaev decision is exactly that scenario. At +205, you’re getting 2-to-1 on a prop that correlates directly with the decision outcome.

• Best Prop: Strickland 75+ Strikes Landed (+205 at Bet365)

Chimaev vs Strickland Odds

Chimaev is a heavy -500 favorite at Bet365, carrying roughly 83% implied probability. The fight going to the distance is priced at +190, meaning oddsmakers lean toward a finish. Chimaev by submission at +100 and by KO/TKO at +400 are both shorter than the decision at +290, so the market expects a stoppage if he wins.

I think the market is underrating Strickland’s toughness. He’s never been submitted, and Chimaev showed against du Plessis that he’s content to ride out top control without aggressively chasing the finish. The over 3.5 rounds at +120 also correlates well with both of my UFC 328 picks if you want a third leg on your card tonight.

Odds as of May 9th at Bet365 Sportsbook. Bet on UFC 328 tonight with a Bet365 bonus code or browse UFC betting apps.