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Canadiens vs Sabres Game 7 Prediction, Betting Odds & Expert Pick (May. 18)

Michael Harrison

By Michael Harrison in NHL Hockey

Published:


Montreal Canadiens forward Cole Caufield takes a shot on net during the third period of the game against the Florida Panthers.
Apr 7, 2026; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens forward Cole Caufield (13) takes a shot on net during the third period of the game against the Florida Panthers at the Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-Imagn Images
  • The Buffalo Sabres are -117 favorites to advance past the second round in their Game 7 duel with the Montreal Canadiens
  • Montreal has won their last two in Buffalo, but the Sabres claimed Game 6 with a 8-3 victory
  • See my favorite Canadiens vs Sabres Game 7 picks for Monday, May 18th plus a Same-Game Parlay

This is it for all the marbles – the Canadiens and Sabres do battle in a monumental Game 7 showdown. The winner advances to the Eastern Conference Final to face the Carolina Hurricanes, while the losers are eliminated from postseason contention. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET / 4:30 PM PT, with Buffalo listed as favorites in the NHL odds. You can watch the action on ESPN in the United States and Sportsnet in Canada.

Montreal led 3-1 at home Saturday in Game 6, and seemingly were well on their way to eliminating Buffalo. The Sabres had other thoughts, however, scoring seven unanswered goals to force a deciding 7th contest. In the Stanley Cup odds, the Sabres are +1500, while the Canadiens find themselves at the +1600 longest shot. Keep reading for my favorite Canadiens vs Sabres Game 7 predictions and analysis.

Canadiens vs Sabres Game 7 Prediction

  • Over 5.5 Combined Goals (+100 at FanDuel)

 

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Sports Betting Dime

Pick
Odds
Over +5.5
Over/Under
NHL • Montreal Canadiens @ Buffalo Sabres
100 on Betfair
SCHEDULED • 05/18/2026
Tally (Win %)
0-0-0 (0%)
Money Meter
$0.00
ROI
0.0%
Betslip #1779121782366-b783-871

My favorite bet is for there to be goals and more goals. Even though it’ll be a Game 7 and they usually are tighter checking, I can’t ignore how things have gone this series. In five of six skirmishes, at least six combined snipes have been accumulated. Widening the lens, in 13 of their last 14 matchups, six or more combined goals have been notched between these Atlantic Division rivals.

I simply don’t have a ton of confidence in either team’s net, though I’d still ride more with Montreal, even though Jakub Dobes was pulled after coughing up six goals in Game 6. The Habs are 5-0 following a loss this postseason.

Buffalo’s net has been extremely uncertain, with both Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Alex Lyon taking turns as Head Coach Lindy Ruff hasn’t exactly had full confidence. With that uncertainty in mind, I love picking the over 5.5 goals line for this contest.

Canadiens vs Sabres Playoff Stats

Statistic (Per Game)MontrealBuffalo
Goals For3.083.42
Goals Against2.773.00
Shots For25.229.8
Shots Against27.926.8
Power Play %23.5%20.8%
Penalty Kill %73.6%78.0%
Blocked Shots/60 mins15.614.6
Save Percentage.901.891
Faceoff Win %54.8%44.9%

Buffalo has been scoring more goals than Montreal, but their goaltending has been poorer, Game 6 notwithstanding. On the special teams, the Habs are stronger on the man advantage, yet the Sabres have been better on the PK.

It’s been a crapshoot whether Luukkonen or Lyon will have a strong game or if they’ll get lit up, as the latter was pulled following three goals allowed on four shots in Game 6. UPL didn’t even play for three weeks after the first two games in the first round vs the Bruins. He was pulled in Game 5 and didn’t even start the latest matchup. For Montreal, Jakub Dobes has been their guy this whole postseason, but was yanked after surrendering six markers in Game 6 on 33 shots.

Canadiens vs Sabres Game 7 Odds

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MTL vs BUF Public Betting Splits & Handle

  • Moneyline: The NHL public betting trends shows that 65% of the bets are on the favored Sabres to win straight up, yet 70% of the cash has been directed towards the underdog Canadiens.
  • Puck Line: Bettors are showing strong support for the Habs to keep the game competitive, with 66% of wagers on MTL, and a near even split of money, 51% for Montreal.
  • Total: The betting public overwhelmingly expects a tight checking game, with 75% of the tickets landing on the Under, but 58% of moola is on the Over.

Canadiens vs Sabres Game 7 Player Props Bet & Same-Game Parlay

  • MTL vs BUF Player Prop: Rasmus Dahlin 1+ Assist (-125 at DraftKings)

Sports Betting Dime

Pick
Odds
Over +0.5
Player Prop
NHL • Montreal Canadiens @ Buffalo Sabres
-125 on DraftKings
SCHEDULED • 05/18/2026
Tally (Win %)
0-0-0 (0%)
Money Meter
$0.00
ROI
0.0%
Betslip #1779121862396-b783-922

Moving over to the NHL props market, I’m looking straight at the Sabres captain Rasmus Dahlin. He had a gargantuan Game 6, scoring the opening goal and adding a whopping four helpers. That was his fourth straight affair picking up an assist, and he’s -125 to do it again in this pivotal deciding duel.

He’s also notched at least one apple in eleven of his last 15 outings versus Montreal, so I’m confident in selecting him to accomplish that. If you’d like to parlay Dahlin recording an assist with over 5.5 goals being accumulated, that pays out an even +200.

Canadiens vs Sabres How to Watch

  • Matchup: Canadiens (Away) vs Sabres (Home)
  • TV: ESPN (United States), Sportsnet (Canada)
  • Date: Monday, May 18
  • Time: 7:30 PM ET / 4:30 PM PT
  • Venue: Keybank Center, Buffalo, NY
Michael Harrison
Michael Harrison

Sports & Entertainment Writer

Michael "Hound Dog" Harrison is well known in the sports industry as the resident statistician for the SC with Jay Onrait Show. He has worked at TSN for over 20 years, is the CEO of his "All Bets Par Off" weekly golf betting videos and his HDOG POD, along with several others.

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