First-Round Leader Odds & Picks at US Open (2026)

• The US Open championship from Shinnecock Hill Golf Club tees off Thursday, June 18th
• Scottie Scheffler is the +1350 favorite to lead after 18 holes over two-time defending Masters champ Rory McIlroy
• Read below for five picks of mine to be leader after day one of the US Open

The third men’s major of 2026 is upon us, and it promises to be a doozy at the US Open Championship. It’s being contested at famed Shinnecock Hills Golf Club, just outside of New York, and it’s always a stern test of golf. The four times it’s hosted the National Open since 1986, the winning scores have been -1, EVEN, -4 and +1, the latter of which was a Brooks Koepka triumph in 2018. Scottie Scheffler is the favorite in the US Open odds to win outright, and if he does so, he’d complete the career grand slam, becoming just the seventh man to ever do so.

Instead of waiting until Sunday to potentially collect our earnings, this article will explore bets that can be made that will settle at the conclusion of the first round, searching to find who will be the first-round leader after 18 holes.

2026 US Open First-Round Leader Odds

Bettors who live in regions where prediction site Kalshi is operational can find better prices on most of the top contenders. Scottie Scheffler, for instance, is priced at 5.1 cents to be first round leader, which is equal to a +1860 moneyline in American odds.

The graphic below shows the current top-ten favorites at Kalshi. Click “Predict” to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi sign-up bonus.

Prediction Markets

US Open First-Round Leader Odds

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Kalshi

Scottie Scheffler

5%

Rory McIlroy

4%

Tommy Fleetwood

3%

Cameron Young

3%

Ludvig Aberg

2%

Jon Rahm

2%

Xander Schauffele

2%

Sam Burns

2%

Matt Fitzpatrick

2%

Si Woo Kim

2%

Predict

Use SBD’s odds converter to see how Kalshi prices compare to American odds. Enter the Kalshi price in the “Implied Probability” field and the “American” field will display the corresponding odds.

First-Round Weather Forecast

The weather will feature some light showers throughout the morning as it dissipates in the afternoon. Temperatures will range from the mid 60’s to 70’s for the afternoon wave, and it’s going to be super blustery, with wind gusts between 35 MPH in the morning and 40 MPH for the golfers playing later.

Keep in mind, if you’re inclined to wager on a FRL selection on a player in the afternoon, patience can be a virtue. Invariably someone will go super low in the AM, perhaps rendering most of the PM players obsolete in terms of winning a first round leader wager.

US Open First-Round Leader Picks and Predictions 2026

• J.J. Spaun +5300
• Wyndham Clark +5500
• Hideki Matsuyama +7800
• Gary Woodland +10500
• Billy Horschel +22000

My first choice is defending champion J.J. Spaun (8:14 am, +5300). He won the Valero Texas Open in April, and has four top-15s since, highlighted by a pair of top-6s. The only sticking point is he’s missed the cut in the first two majors of 2026. However, I’m banking on him displaying the form that not only led to a victory last year at Oakmont, but also a W this campaign, and several other great finishes.

Next up is Wyndham Clark (1:36 pm, +5500), who won the U.S. Open in 2023. He’s shot 68 or better in five or his last six opening rounds, including his title three events ago at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. Wyndie followed that up with a third place result at the Memorial, then was in contention heading into the final round of the RBC Canadian Open, before finishing T-11th.

Next I have my sights set on Hideki Matsuyama (1:47 pm, +7800). He has a major in tow (2021 Masters), and three top-6s in his U.S. Open career. What’s most appealing about him is that he sports the second-best first round scoring average, amongst those competing this week.

2026 PGA Tour First-Round Scoring Average Leaders

Claim SBD’s exclusive Polymarket sign-up bonus before trading on the US Open week.

Longshot 2026 US Open First Round Leaders Predictions

My final two selections are serious longshots, but in a wager like a FRL bet, it’s inherently fairly random who is on top after 18 holes. With that in mind, yet another U.S. Open winner (2019) in Gary Woodland (1:36 pm, +10500) is very intriguing. He won the Houston Open in March, and has a pair of top-10s since (T-6 Charles Schwab Challenge, T-8 RBC Heritage). He’s also ninth best in first round scoring, of those teeing it up.

Finally, my super darkhorse is Billy Horschel (2:09 pm, +22000). The eight-time PGA Tour winner very nearly picked off his first major championship in 2024, finishing runner-up at the Open Championship. He took five months off last year (labrum tear), but is getting back into the swing of things in 2026, with a T-6 at the Zurich Classic, and he was in the mix to win through 54 holes at last week’s RBC Canadian Open.