MLB Home Run Probabilities – Best Chances to Hit a HR Today
By Sascha Paruk
Updated:
- This page tracks the MLB home run chances for every player in action today
- The HR probabilities are based on our proprietary algorithm
- See today’s MLB home run probabilities for every game on today’s schedule
Wondering which MLB players have the best chance to hit a home run today? You have come to the right place. This page tracks the daily MLB home run probabilities and sets them out in a handy, easy-to-read table.
The table below lists
MLB Home Run Probabilities Today
How Are Home Run Probabilities Calculated?
The exact formula is proprietary information but we can give you a glimpse behind the curtain. Each player’s home run probability is influenced by the following:
Opposing Starter
The opposing starter is always a huge factor. This variable includes both the pitcher’s track record of allowing home runs and the specific batter-vs-pitcher stats against each hitter.
Platoon Splits
Virtually every hitter has a bias towards right-handed or left-handed pitchers. Factoring in the opposing starter’s handedness is crucial, as is the availability of right-handed and left-handed relievers, especially if the starter doesn’t project to pitch deep into the game.
Park Factor
MLB Park Factors are important enough that SBD has devoted an entire page to it. The venue that each batter is playing in always forms part of the overall home run probability. Sites like Coors Field and PNC Park give everyone an overall boost, while the short-porch at Yankee stadium is a boon to pull-heavy lefties.
MLB Weather Reports
No home run calculations are complete without factoring in that day’s MLB weather reports. Strong winds – in or out – are the biggest potential weather factor impacting home runs.
Temperature and humidity are also important variables. Warmer, drier conditions allow balls to travel farther, while colder, more-humid air suppresses power.
Recent Form
Baseball can be a very streaky sport. Every player’s career numbers are relevant, but more-recent statistics are more relevant, and that’s baked into our equation.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
