Cardinals vs Braves Predictions & Player-Prop Picks on July 2
By Eric Rosales in MLB Baseball
Published:
- It’s the rubber match of a 3-game set between the St Louis Cardinals and the Atlanta Braves
- Atlanta is heavily backed on the moneyline despite public money favoring St. Louis
- Read below for the my Cardinals vs Braves prediction, latest odds and prop picks
After splitting the first two games of their 3-game set, the Atlanta Braves (49-34) continue their series as home favorites against the St. Louis Cardinals (44-38).
The Cardinals opened the series with a 5-3 win, with Atlanta responding Wednesday with a comfortable 5-1 victory.
Despite Atlanta pulling off just two wins in their last nine games, the books are still leaning to the Braves in the MLB odds.
Action gets underway at 7:15pm ET from Truist Park in Atlanta, in a game that can be seen live nationally on MLB TV.
Read below for updated odds, and my prediction and best player prop picks.
Cardinals vs Braves Odds
The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change. Use theScore Bet promo code to wager on Cardinals vs Braves and other MLB action. And don’t forget to check out our batter vs pitcher stats, to help you shape your baseball bets.
The betting markets for tonight’s contest reflect a tightly contested matchup, with Atlanta favored only slightly on the moneyline at -112. Oddsmakers respect the visiting Cardinals, pricing them as narrow -104 road underdogs, both odds courtesy FanDuel.
For bettors looking at the runline, both teams are currently getting 1.5 runs, with the Braves getting -176 odds at FanDuel, and the Cards are getting even less favorable odds, -190 at Caesars.
While the opening runline and moneyline prices have held firm, there has been notable movement on the run total. The opening total was originally set at 8.5, shaded toward the Over at -120. Sportsbooks have since bumped the total up to a flat 9.0 runs (with the Under getting -110 odds at bet365). This line movement is a direct result of overwhelming public action anticipating a high-scoring affair.
STL Cardinals vs ATL Braves Picks and Prediction
- Best Bet: Braves (-115 at Caesars)
Atlanta boasts a stellar pitching staff with a collective 3.40 team ERA, anchored by an elite bullpen that sports a 2.72 ERA. They will need to rely heavily on that staff tonight, as probable starter Hurston Waldrep has logged just 2.0 innings of work at the major league level this year.
Conversely, St. Louis ranks lower in run prevention, carrying a 4.25 team ERA. They turn to veteran Dustin May in the MLB probable pitchers, who holds a 4.30 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 83.2 innings pitched.
May takes the mound boasting a 5-6 record. While his 4.30 season ERA paints a picture of inconsistency, his underlying metrics suggest he has been a victim of bad luck. His excellent 3.32 FIP indicates he is pitching significantly better than traditional runs allowed would show.
Waldrep’s electric stuff is evident through a 13.50 K/9 rate, but severe command issues have plagued his brief stint, issuing four walks (18.00 BB/9). Atlanta will likely treat his outing with extreme caution. Expect Waldrep to be kept on a tight leash, relying heavily on the bullpen if his command falters early.
Offensively, both teams have true power threats.
The Braves are led by Olson, who brings a robust .864 OPS, 20 home runs, and 52 RBIs into the matchup. St. Louis will lean heavily on Jordan Walker, who paces the lineup with 18 homers and an .852 OPS.
The Cardinals have been a force offensively when traveling this season, putting up an impressive 5.21 runs per game, which ranks third among all road teams. They are also slugging at a much higher clip away from Busch Stadium, boasting a .731 OPS and averaging 1.26 home runs per game.
Conversely, the Braves have surprisingly struggled to push runs across the plate in their home ballpark, managing just 4.33 runs per game. However, a deeper dive into the underlying metrics suggests that the home offense is primed for a breakout.
Despite their lower run output and a 23rd-ranked .699 OPS, Atlanta is scorching the baseball. Their 89.2 mph average exit velocity ranks 3rd among all home offenses. This signals they have been victims of bad luck rather than poor contact. As those hard-hit balls start finding outfield grass, their scoring metrics will inevitably climb.
It will also help lift Atlanta to a win on Thursday.
Cardinals vs Braves Props
Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+113 at DraftKings): Olson is slugging an impressive .523 this season. Getting plus-money on Atlanta’s most dangerous bat to record multiple bases against May is exceptional value.
Mike Yastrzemski Over 0.5 Hits (-142 at DraftKings): Yastrzemski has dominated May with a .500 average and two extra-base hits over 14 career at-bats.
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Sports Writer & Editor
Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.