Spain vs Portugal Odds for Round of 16 – Who’s Favored in Iberian Derby?
By Sascha Paruk in Soccer News
Published:
- Spain dusted aside Austria in the Round of 32
- Portugal eked out a victory over Croatia, setting up an epic Round of 16 clash
- See the opening Spain vs Portugal odds for the latest edition of one of the sport’s biggest rivalries
Spain and Portugal will renew hostilities on the pitch in Arlington on Monday, July 6, when the Iberian rivals meet in the World Cup Round of 16.
The winner will move on to face the winner of USA vs Belgium on July 10 in Inglewood.
Spain didn’t put together the most-convincing group-stage performance but they didn’t concede a goal in their three Group H games and ran that shutout streak to four in Thursday’s 3-0 drubbing of Austria. Portugal, meanwhile, came back from 1-0 in the final half hour to oust Croatia (2-1).
Against that backdrop, La Roja are sizable favorites in the Spain vs Portugal odds.
Spain vs Portugal Odds
No sportsbooks have opened lines on this game yet, but the trading at prediction site Kalshi tells us the opening odds to advance. In Kalshi’s market on World Cup quarterfinal qualifiers, Spain is currently trading at 64¢ (equal to -178 odds), while Portugal is trading at 37¢ (equal to +170 odds).
The three-way moneyline has opened at bet365 and Spain is priced as a -112 favorite to win in 90 minutes. Portugal is +275 to win, which is just slightly longer than a full-time draw at +270.
Spain’s Shutout Streak Extended
After blanking Cabo Verde (0-0), Saudi Arabia (4-0), and Uruguay (1-0) in Group H play, Spain cruised to a 3-0 win over a talented Austrian side on Thursday afternoon.
If there were any doubts about Spain’s bona fides as title contenders – and there were rumblings – Thursday’s performance should put them to rest. Spain generated 23 shots (10 on target) and 2.80 xGF while holding 64% of possession. They finished the game with a nine-to-zero edge in corners.
Austria didn’t managed a single shot on target in a meager five attempts over 90 minutes. Spain’s elite defense conceded just 0.32 xGF to Marcel Sabitzer and company.
Mikel Oyarzabal continued to put up solid numbers as Spain’s number nine. The tip of the attacking spear potted a brace, both assisted by hirsute left-back Marc Cucurella.
Tottenham defender Pedro Porro had Spain’s other tally on close-range header.
The impressive victory moved Spain back in front of England in the odds to win the World Cup at 12.9¢ at Kalshi (equal to +675 odds). England was briefly the third-favorite last night after they knocked out DR Congo in comeback fashion. The Tree Lions are now trading at 7.6¢ (+1216), making them a distant fourth-favorite.
Unimpeachable France (34.1¢ or +193) continues to be a sizable favorite, with reigning-champion Argentina (18.4¢, +443) sitting second.
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Portugal Comes Back to Beat Croatia
After a 0-0 stalemate at halftime, Portugal and Croatia played arguably the most-exciting half of football in Portugal’s 2-1 victory on Thursday night in Toronto.
Ivan Perisic gave Croatia the lead in the 50th minute before Ronaldo equalized on a penalty in the 68th. Substitute Goncalo Ramos would then score in the winner in the fourth minute of stoppage time on a picture-perfect cross from Rafael Leao.
Portugal also survived a tying goal in the final minutes that was called back for offside.
Portugal only managed a runner-up finish in Group K, drawing 1-1 with DR Congo and 0-0 with Colombia. Their lone with of the group stage was a 5-0 drubbing of Uzbekistan.
Spain Has Dominated Portugal, Historically (But Not So Much Recently)
The long history between the teams is heavily skewed toward the Spaniards. In 41 all-time meetings, Spain has won 17, drawn 18, and lost just six.
However, Portugal took the most-recent meeting – the 2025 UEFA Nations League final – on penalties after the teams played to a 2-2 draw in regular time and extra time. That was just the second penalty shootout between Spain and Portugal. Spain won the first during Euro 2012 after a scoreless draw.
The 2-2 draw in the Nations League final was the sixth time in the last seven matches that Portugal and Spain played to a 90-minute stalemate. The only match in that span which didn’t go beyond 90 minutes was a 1-0 win for Spain in hostile territory during the 2022-23 Nations League.
Three of the team’s six recent draws were scoreless.
The last time Spain and Portugal met at the World Cup was 2018 in Sochi, where they played to a 3-3 group-stage draw.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
