How to Bet on Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest with Prediction Markets

• As the United States is celebrating the 250th anniversary of its independence, a true American tradition happens in Coney Island, Brooklyn, as the 2026 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest is set to take place
• The women’s competition starts at 10:45 AM ET and can be watched live on ESPN+ and the ESPN app; the men’s competition starts at 12:00 PM ET live on ESPN2, and the contest will be shown from start to finish, beginning at 12:30 PM ET and simulcast on ABC
• Prediction markets offer multiple options to opine on the contest, whether it is picking winners in the men’s and women’s division, speculating on how many hot dogs and buns are consumed, and if records will be broken

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The annual Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest has come a long way from a promotional gimmick at Polish immigrant Nathan Handwerker’s hot dog stand more than a century ago. Over the past 50 years, it has grown into a phenomenon and is seen as the Super Bowl of competitive eating. The current champions, Joey Chestnut and Miki Sudo, have reached the pinnacle of their chosen competition. Both are dominant forces and the overwhelming favorites to retain their crowns.

While people can make picks in both divisions, there is little ambiguity in who will win. Barring anything unforeseen and borderline unprecedented, the champions will remain champions. As Ric Flair said, “To be the man, you gotta beat the man.”

Or woman.

However, users have the chance to pick a contest winner in both divisions, speculate on who would win if Chestnut were not taking part, and consider how many total hot dogs and buns will be eaten by individual contestants.

Prediction markets offer an array of options to jump in on the contest and potentially profit.

Odds for Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Men’s Winner

Market volume is now beyond $1 million and will rise as the contest gets closer to feeding time.

The universal belief is that Joey Chestnut will win. He is the dominant force in the contest, with the only exceptions being 2024, when he did not compete due to a sponsorship dispute, and in 2015, when he lost to Matt Stonie. His percentage is in the mid-90s. The 2024 champion, Patrick Bertoletti, is at around 5%. James Webb is the only other name registering. The Aussie came in third in 2025 behind Chestnut and Bertoletti. He is in the low-single digits.

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The market rules are simple. The selected contestant must win the Men’s Division in the 2026 Nathan’s Famous Fourth of July International Hot Dog Eating Contest for the market to resolve to Yes. ESPN, Fox Sports, Nathan’s Famous, and Major League Eating will verify the outcome.

Odds for Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Without Joey Chestnut

Volume for this market is over $120,000.

Since there is an attempt to give users as many ways to take part in the markets as possible, it makes sense to let users look at the situation without the overwhelming favorite, Joey Chestnut. That would, of course, open up the contest to several competitors, including past winner Patrick Bertoletti as well as James Webb, Geoffrey Esper, Nick Wehry, and Max Stanford.

Bertoletti is in the mid-60s. Webb is at around 20%. Esper is just over 10%. And Wehry is in the mid-single digits.

The question here is how motivated the other contestants will be if Chestnut is Chestnutting and quickly jumps out to a big lead. The easy pick is Bertoletti, but Webb has shown promise in the past.

The market will resolve to Yes if the selected competitor eats the most hot dogs and buns after Chestnut in the Men’s Division of the 2026 Nathan’s Famous Fourth of July International Hot Dog Eating Contest. For this and every market, the outcome is verified by MLE, ESPN, Nathan’s Famous, and Fox Sports.

Odds for Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest: Total Dogs Eaten

Volume is just over $600,000.

As far as prediction markets go, this might be the fairest one for users. It gives a seemingly endless number of alternatives to make a pick and profit. It is truly an individual endeavor as to how many hot dogs and buns the contestants eat. For example, Chestnut is at over 90% to eat 60+. Since he has done that just about every year, it’s a relatively safe bet with the foundational risks, such as a physical problem or the heat factoring in. Just over 70% think he will eat 65+; under 60% for 68+; and just below 50% for him to eat 70+. It rises incrementally up to 82+, a highly unlikely result.

For Patrick Bertoletti, fewer than half think he will eat 52+. It drops about 10 percentage points for him to eat 55+. Just over 20% say he will eat 58+.

Geoffrey Esper, James Webb, Nick Wehry, and 6’9″ Gideon Oji are also on the market with, obviously, far lower numbers than Chestnut.

The market resolves to Yes if the user is correct as to how many hot dogs the competitor surpasses.

Odds for Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Women’s Winner

Volume has surpassed $250,000.

This market begins and ends with Miki Sudo. She is the dominant force, and that reflects in the percentages in the low-to-mid-90s. Michelle Lesco is in the mid-single digits. Domenica Dee is in the low-single digits.

Lesco is a viable challenger and has won the contest before, but her victory only came about in 2021 because Sudo didn’t compete due to her pregnancy. Dee is getting some attention because of her heavy social media following, but she is not a real contender.

There are other options on this market, including the possibility of the women’s record for hot dogs and buns consumed on the 4th of July being broken, and who would win if Sudo did not compete. These are better than the actual market since Sudo will almost assuredly win.

The market resolves to Yes if the selected competitor wins.

Odds for Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Women’s: Total Dogs Eaten

Miki Sudo has the record for hot dogs and buns eaten, with 51 in 2024. She dropped to 33 last year, but won easily over Michelle Lesco, who ate 22.75. The gap between Sudo and Lesco has been widening, but that only matters in the context of who will win.

For the number of hot dogs and buns eaten, more than 70% think Sudo will reach 35+. Less than half believe she will get to 38+. It is in the mid-30s for her to get to 41+. One quarter of users think she will surpass 44+. It drops to the single digits with 50 and above.

Lesco is at over 60% to eat 22+. It is at around 30% for it to get to 25+. It’s safe to assume she will get beyond 22. Twenty-five plus is difficult to see happening, particularly with the expected high temperatures broiling New York.

The market rules are simple. It will resolve to Yes if the user is correct about whether the contestant surpasses the selected number.