Early McGregor vs. Holloway 2 Prediction & Best Bets to Lock In

• McGregor vs Holloway 2 headlines UFC 329 at T-Mobile Arena on Saturday, July 11th
• Holloway is a -225 favorite at DraftKings with the main event under drawing sharp money
• See my early McGregor vs Holloway 2 predictions and best UFC 329 bets below

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The octagon returns to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas for a blockbuster pay-per-view card. UFC 329 is headlined by a highly anticipated welterweight rematch between Conor McGregor and Max Holloway.

The early action kicks off at 5:00 PM ET on July 11, 2026, with main event walkouts expected around 10:20 PM ET. Beyond the marquee attraction, this card presents plenty of opportunities to find absolute value.

Whether you want to back heavy favorites or identify live underdogs, my UFC 329 predictions will help you build a profitable card. Here is the real story behind the lines.

McGregor vs. Holloway 2 Prediction: Fight to Not Start Round 4

Five-year layoff aside, McGregor always starts fast and aggressively. He still has the power to catch Holloway, whose once-indestructible chin has now been knocked down in 3 of his last 4 fights. The layoff should only further entice an even more explosive start from the Irishman, who will not have the cardio or durability to compete in the later rounds.

But McGregor’s defensive reactions have also slowed a lot lately. After five years away, one has to assume his chin is not what it used to be either. If McGregor does not land the big shot early, he could be a sitting duck in round two and beyond.

The forecast models heavily favor Holloway with a commanding 64.5% win probability, but the value here is in the total, not the moneyline. Both paths I see for this fight point to it ending inside the distance, which is why not starting Round 4 is my play over laying the juice on Holloway straight up.

• UFC 329 Pick #1: Fight to Not Start Round 4 (-160 at DraftKings)

Saint-Denis vs. Pimblett Best Bet: Paddy Pimblett

This is a rare fight where Pimblett is actually the better striker. His striking game has improved a lot in the last two years, mixing in his jab with timely kicks and knees, while Saint-Denis’ striking entirely revolves around his rear leg to close the distance and smother his opponents.

Saint-Denis can pressure Pimblett, who is content to fight off his back foot, but the last time he fought a BJJ black belt who could match his physicality, Renato Moicano busted him up. Pimblett’s timing has hurt opponents closing the distance before, and he has the strength to prevent BSD from just bullying him onto the ground. Even once the fight hits the mat, ‘The Baddy’ is an aggressive grappler off his back, an element Saint-Denis has yet to handle.

Predictive models award Saint-Denis a 55.6% win probability, but I think the tape tells a different story. At +120, I love the plus-money value on Pimblett to crush the Frenchman’s hype train.

• UFC 329 Pick #2: Paddy Pimblett (+120 at DraftKings)

Sandhagen vs. Bautista Pick: Cory Sandhagen

Bautista is still extremely underrated, but he struggles against superior technical strikers like Sandhagen. His fight with Jose Aldo is the perfect example. While Bautista’s movement can make flat-footed fighters like Patchy Mix and Ricky Simon look stuck in the mud, he has a much more difficult time working around fighters with better timing and distance management than he.

The biggest issue Bautista will have on the feet will be handling Sandhagen’s range. These fighters have the same reach, but Sandhagen is so good at using long-range weapons — jab, leg kicks, etc. — to maximize his length.

Sandhagen might also be the better grappler, which Bautista could struggle to deal with. Not only did he submit Bautista the first time around, but he has improved on the ground a lot since aligning with Ryan Hall.

Sandhagen’s movement and timing are too difficult to figure out in just 3 rounds — even current champion Petr Yan needed to rally late to beat him. Sandhagen 5-1 in three-round fights in the UFC.

• UFC 329 Pick #3: Cory Sandhagen (-155 at DraftKings)

Full UFC 329 Odds

Odds as of July 3rd at DraftKings. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC 329 on Saturday.

Holloway sits as a -225 favorite in the UFC 329 odds, carrying roughly 69% implied probability, with McGregor coming back at +185 in his first octagon appearance in five years. The main event total sits at 2.5 rounds, with the under juiced to -130, showing how heavily the market leans toward a finish.

Saint-Denis vs. Pimblett is the tightest fight on the card at -142, while prices climb fast on heavy favorites like the debuting Gable Steveson (-2800) and Adrian Yañez (-410). Expect these lines to keep moving as fight night approaches.