Fernando Mendoza Odds to Start Week 1 After Signing Rookie Contract

• Fernando Mendoza signed his rookie contract with the Raiders just before training camp opened
• His odds to be the Las Vegas Week 1 starting quarterback have gone the wrong way since May, with Kirk Cousins pulling clear
• Keep reading for the updated Fernando Mendoza starting odds after his contract, plus where the value sits in this market

The last piece of Raiders business got done just in time. Fernando Mendoza signed his rookie contract Thursday, the final member of the 10-man draft class to put pen to paper. The money makes him the highest-paid rookie the league has ever seen.

Getting paid like a franchise quarterback and playing like one in September are two different things. Kirk Cousins is still taking the bulk of the first-team reps, and the market has noticed. Mendoza was a much shorter price to start Week 1 back in May than he is today.

Keep reading for the updated Fernando Mendoza odds to start Week 1, his full contract breakdown, and where I think the value is.

Fernando Mendoza Week 1 Starting Odds

Prediction Markets

Raiders Starting QB Odds

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Kalshi

Kirk Cousins

95%

Fernando Mendoza

19%

Aidan O'Connell

1%

Predict

Cousins is up to a 95% chance to be under center for the opener, a jump of 18 points. Buying him costs 88 cents, or -733 in traditional sports betting terms.

Mendoza sits at 19%, with his Yes contract trading at 18 cents, roughly +455. Aidan O’Connell is under 1% and not part of the conversation.

Odds as of Thursday, July 23 at Kalshi. New customers can claim the Kalshi referral code before trading this market.

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Inside Fernando Mendoza’s Rookie Contract

The deal is worth $57,270,598 over four years, with $52.72 million fully guaranteed and a signing bonus of $38,111,344. As the No. 1 overall pick, Mendoza also comes with a fifth-year team option.

Fernando Mendoza Rookie Contract by Year

Even with a record guarantee, that yearly average lands near the bottom of the pay scale for starting quarterbacks. Rookie deals are the best value in football, and sitting one for a full season burns a quarter of that window.

Will Fernando Mendoza Start Week 1 for the Raiders?

Las Vegas did not hand Cousins $20 million guaranteed to hold a clipboard. Klint Kubiak said Mendoza has “gotten a ton better” this offseason, but the head coach stopped short of naming him the starter. Minority owner Tom Brady has floated the Drew Bledsoe blueprint, where the rookie waits his turn.

That plan has cracks in it. GM Jason Spytek has said the best player will play no matter the experience level, and Mendoza is already taking first-team looks under center, in shotgun and in the pistol.

Mendoza has been studying the playbook with quarterback mentor Brian Griese since before the draft, and he has clearly passed O’Connell on the depth chart. Last year’s Heisman Trophy odds winner is not spending the summer as a spectator.

Cousins carries risk too. He is coming off two below-average years in Atlanta and an Achilles injury that changed how he moves.

Back in May, Mendoza was trading at 37 cents in the NFL starting QB odds. He has lost half his value since, and nothing has actually gone wrong for him.

Fernando Mendoza Starting Odds Prediction

• Fernando Mendoza YES (18¢ at Kalshi)

If there’s value left in this market, it’s on the Mendoza side. Cousins costs 88 cents, so you’re risking a lot to win almost nothing.

Mendoza is 18 cents. Rookies report Thursday and the veterans arrive next Wednesday, and one good preseason drive puts him back near the 37 cents he sat at in May.

Cousins is still the favorite for good reason, and I get why the market is priced this way. But at 18 cents, I’d rather hold the guy Las Vegas just guaranteed $52.72 million.